Bet builder
Legs are offered where at least 3 books price them inside the last 90 minutes; a 4.5% over-side margin is removed from each leg’s market probability as an estimate. Shots, shots on target, fouls, fouls won and tackles. The value board’s live calls are marked ● so you can build from legs the record is tracking.
Same-game slips priced from the market, with correlation from simulation. Each leg’s probability is what the books say — the median of every fresh bookmaker’s price on that selection, margin taken off — and legs in one match are then priced together, because they move together: a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down. 10,000 simulated matches supply that correlation and nothing else. How it works is on the methodology page.
Bolton Wanderers v Lincoln City · Championship · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 33 priced legs across 28 players · no simulation yet — same-match legs priced as independent
Each chip is an over at a half-line: the line, the market’s probability (the median of every fresh book, one vote per bookmaker — margin included) and bet365’s price. ● marks a leg the value board is tracking. Hover a chip for how many books are behind it and the best price. Prices checked 14m ago.
Ben HouseFWDLincoln City
Freddie DraperFWDLincoln City
Kyliane DongFWDBolton Wanderers
Rob StreetFWDLincoln City
Sam DalbyFWDBolton Wanderers
Adam ReachDEFLincoln City
Akin FamewoDEFBolton Wanderers
Andrei CoubișDEFLincoln City
Ben DaviesDEFBolton Wanderers
Callum ElderDEFLincoln City
Chris ForinoDEFBolton Wanderers
Conor McGrandlesMIDLincoln City
David WatsonMIDBolton Wanderers
Deji ElereweDEFLincoln City
Dom JefferiesMIDLincoln City
Eoin ToalDEFBolton Wanderers
Ethan ErhahonMIDBolton Wanderers
Gaizka LarrazabalDEFBolton Wanderers
John McAteeFWDBolton Wanderers
Josh SheehanMIDBolton Wanderers
Lewis BruntDEFBolton Wanderers
Luca StephensonDEFBolton Wanderers
Ryley TowlerDEFLincoln City
Samuel Iling-JuniorFWDBolton Wanderers
Tanto OlaofeFWDLincoln City
Tendayi DarikwaDEFLincoln City
Thierry GaleFWDBolton Wanderers
Tom HamerDEFLincoln City
Why no bookmaker builder prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
What “fair” means here. Player props are priced over-only, so every book’s price — and the median of them — carries the book’s margin. The fair price takes an estimated 4.5% off each leg for that and then applies the simulation’s correlation. It is an estimate built from the market’s own numbers, not a model’s opinion and not a guarantee. The correlation is trusted only within bounds: where the simulation covers fewer than two legs, lands too few joint hits, or produces a ratio outside 0.5–2.0, the slip is priced as independent and the panel says so.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to.