Bet builder
Legs are offered where at least 3 books price them inside the last 90 minutes; a 4.5% over-side margin is removed from each leg’s market probability as an estimate. Shots, shots on target, fouls, fouls won and tackles. The value board’s live calls are marked ● so you can build from legs the record is tracking.
Same-game slips priced from the market, with correlation from simulation. Each leg’s probability is what the books say — the median of every fresh bookmaker’s price on that selection, margin taken off — and legs in one match are then priced together, because they move together: a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down. 10,000 simulated matches supply that correlation and nothing else. How it works is on the methodology page.
Arsenal v Coventry City · Premier League · Friday 21 August at 20:00 · 855 priced legs across 44 players · correlation from 10,000 simulated matches
Each chip is an over at a half-line: the line, the market’s probability (the median of every fresh book, one vote per bookmaker — margin included) and bet365’s price. ● marks a leg the value board is tracking. Hover a chip for how many books are behind it and the best price. Prices checked 6m ago.
Declan RiceMIDArsenal
Bukayo SakaFWDArsenal
Viktor GyökeresFWDArsenal
Milan van EwijkDEFCoventry City
Haji WrightFWDCoventry City
Jay DasilvaDEFCoventry City
Liam KitchingDEFCoventry City
Ephron Mason-ClarkMIDCoventry City
Joel LatibeaudiereDEFCoventry City
Martín ZubimendiMIDArsenal
Piero HincapiéDEFArsenal
Christos TzolisFWDArsenal
Eberechi EzeMIDArsenal
Gabriel JesusFWDArsenal
Kai HavertzFWDArsenal
Mikel MerinoMIDArsenal
Bruno GuimarãesMIDArsenal
Frank OnyekaMIDCoventry City
Gabriel MartinelliFWDArsenal
Noni MaduekeFWDArsenal
Riccardo CalafioriDEFArsenal
Ben WhiteDEFArsenal
Brandon Thomas-AsanteFWDCoventry City
Caleb YirenkyiMIDCoventry City
Gustavo HamerMIDCoventry City
Loum TchaounaFWDCoventry City
Max DowmanFWDArsenal
Cristhian MosqueraDEFArsenal
Ellis SimmsFWDCoventry City
Jack RudoniMIDCoventry City
Josh EcclesMIDCoventry City
Kaine Kesler-HaydenDEFCoventry City
Matt GrimesMIDCoventry City
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEFArsenal
Tatsuhiro SakamotoFWDCoventry City
Victor TorpMIDCoventry City
Aurèle AmendaDEFCoventry City
Bobby ThomasDEFCoventry City
Raphael Borges RodriguesFWDCoventry City
Taiwo AwoniyiFWDCoventry City
Jake BidwellDEFCoventry City
Luke WoolfendenDEFCoventry City
Ethan NwaneriMIDArsenal
Fábio VieiraMIDArsenal
Why no bookmaker builder prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
What “fair” means here. Player props are priced over-only, so every book’s price — and the median of them — carries the book’s margin. The fair price takes an estimated 4.5% off each leg for that and then applies the simulation’s correlation. It is an estimate built from the market’s own numbers, not a model’s opinion and not a guarantee. The correlation is trusted only within bounds: where the simulation covers fewer than two legs, lands too few joint hits, or produces a ratio outside 0.5–2.0, the slip is priced as independent and the panel says so.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to.