Championship · England

MillwallvNorwich City

Saturday 22 August at 12:30The Denlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.1

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.59	83provisional	1.46	42%	33	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.81	66provisional	1.33	38%	38	031% 131% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.94	59provisional	1.26	35%	19	036% 129% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.51	69provisional	1.16	33%	58	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.35	76provisional	1.14	32%	74	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.37	73provisional	1.11	31%	48	037% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.09	87provisional	1.06	29%	66	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	1.50	61provisional	1.01	27%	46	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	1.00	89provisional	1.00	26%	83	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Jacob WrightMID	Norwich City	1.71	50provisional	0.95	25%	28	044% 130% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Tackles56 playersHighest: Ryan Leonard, 2.15 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	2.65	73provisional	2.15	57%	48	021% 123% 220% 315% 410% 56% 6+6%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	2.33	78provisional	2.01	56%	74	017% 126% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	2.12	83provisional	1.95	55%	33	018% 127% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.99	87provisional	1.92	54%	74	018% 127% 224% 316% 48% 54% 6+3%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	2.19	76provisional	1.86	52%	74	022% 127% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	2.36	69provisional	1.82	49%	45	027% 124% 219% 314% 48% 54% 6+4%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	2.57	62provisional	1.78	47%	34	028% 125% 219% 313% 48% 54% 6+4%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.77	87provisional	1.71	49%	66	022% 130% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	2.15	69provisional	1.65	46%	16	025% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Jack StaceyDEF	Norwich City	2.58	54provisional	1.55	40%	47	034% 126% 217% 311% 46% 54% 6+3%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	2.12	65provisional	1.53	43%	13	029% 128% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Jacob WrightMID	Norwich City	2.65	50provisional	1.47	39%	28	033% 128% 218% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Ben ChriseneDEF	Norwich City	2.48	52provisional	1.44	38%	31	034% 127% 217% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	2.16	60provisional	1.43	40%	25	033% 127% 219% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	2.00	63provisional	1.39	39%	37	033% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.81	69provisional	1.39	39%	58	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.40	89provisional	1.38	39%	42	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.70	71provisional	1.33	37%	43	033% 130% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Derek Mazou-SackoMID	Millwall	2.36	51provisional	1.33	35%	13	043% 122% 215% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Alfie DoughtyMID	Millwall	2.10	53provisional	1.24	33%	16	040% 126% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	1.88	59provisional	1.23	34%	12	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.84	60provisional	1.22	33%	38	036% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ra'ees Bangura-WilliamsFWD	Millwall	2.47	44provisional	1.22	32%	13	041% 127% 215% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	1.57	67provisional	1.16	32%	46	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	1.72	61provisional	1.16	32%	46	036% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Caleb TaylorDEF	Millwall	1.30	80provisional	1.15	32%	25	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lucien MahovoDEF	Norwich City	1.97	52provisional	1.14	30%	8	040% 129% 216% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ruairi McConvilleDEF	Norwich City	1.35	72provisional	1.08	30%	27	041% 129% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sam FieldMID	Norwich City	2.00	48provisional	1.06	28%	7	043% 129% 215% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Oscar SchwartauMID	Norwich City	1.93	49provisional	1.05	28%	47	043% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	1.07	86provisional	1.03	27%	34	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Liam GibbsMID	Norwich City	1.92	48provisional	1.02	27%	17	044% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
José CórdobaDEF	Norwich City	1.30	71provisional	1.02	27%	50	042% 130% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tony SpringettFWD	Norwich City	2.37	38provisional	1.00	26%	10	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	1.00	89provisional	0.99	26%	83	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Luke CundleMID	Millwall	1.85	45provisional	0.93	24%	26	048% 128% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Shane DuffyDEF	Norwich City	0.94	88provisional	0.92	23%	49	042% 135% 216% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Amankwah ForsonMID	Norwich City	2.45	33provisional	0.90	23%	18	049% 128% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Will SmallboneMID	Millwall	2.42	33provisional	0.90	23%	3	052% 125% 212% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Barry BannanMID	Millwall	2.24	36provisional	0.90	23%	6	052% 126% 212% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Aidomo EmakhuFWD	Millwall	2.10	36provisional	0.83	20%	20	053% 127% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Daniel KellyMID	Millwall	2.13	35provisional	0.82	20%	4	056% 125% 210% 35% 43% 51% 6+1%
Wes HardingDEF	Millwall	2.11	30provisional	0.71	18%	4	063% 120% 29% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Jakov MedicDEF	Norwich City	0.80	77provisional	0.68	16%	14	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.03	59provisional	0.67	16%	19	056% 128% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	0.83	66provisional	0.61	14%	38	057% 130% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Matěj JurásekFWD	Norwich City	1.59	33provisional	0.58	13%	8	061% 126% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	0.61	81provisional	0.55	11%	53	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Macaulay LangstaffFWD	Millwall	1.16	38provisional	0.49	11%	31	066% 123% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Tommy WatsonFWD	Millwall	2.04	20provisional	0.46	9%	2	067% 124% 26% 32% 41% 5+0%
Mathias KvistgaardenFWD	Norwich City	1.07	31provisional	0.37	7%	17	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	0.52	63provisional	0.36	6%	60	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Mohamed TouréFWD	Norwich City	0.41	54provisional	0.24	3%	9	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Errol Mundle-SmithFWD	Norwich City	0.98	17provisional	0.19	2%	1	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Max CrocombeGK	Millwall	0.12	90provisional	0.12	1%	23	089% 110% 2+1%
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	45	099% 1+1%

All 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots56 playersHighest: Femi Azeez, 2.11 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	2.75	69provisional	2.11	57%	58	019% 124% 221% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	2.08	81provisional	1.88	54%	53	018% 128% 225% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	2.42	63provisional	1.69	46%	60	027% 127% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	2.24	66provisional	1.65	47%	38	025% 128% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Mohamed TouréFWD	Norwich City	2.50	54provisional	1.50	43%	9	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	2.10	60provisional	1.39	39%	25	033% 128% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.74	71provisional	1.37	39%	43	031% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	2.02	59provisional	1.31	36%	19	036% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	1.80	59provisional	1.18	33%	12	034% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.58	60provisional	1.05	28%	38	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Fouls won56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.77 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.93	83provisional	1.77	51%	33	019% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.80	87provisional	1.74	51%	74	020% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.83	69provisional	1.40	40%	16	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.96	60provisional	1.30	36%	38	033% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.32	76provisional	1.12	31%	74	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	1.15	86provisional	1.10	30%	34	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.32	73provisional	1.08	30%	48	039% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.07	89provisional	1.06	29%	42	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.44	66provisional	1.06	29%	38	039% 132% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	1.02	81provisional	0.92	24%	53	041% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Cards56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 0.23 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	0.26	83provisional	0.23	21%	33	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.24	76provisional	0.21	19%	74	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.17	87provisional	0.16	15%	66	085% 114% 2+1%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.16	89provisional	0.16	15%	83	085% 114% 2+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.21	69provisional	0.16	15%	58	085% 113% 2+1%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	0.20	73provisional	0.16	15%	48	085% 113% 2+1%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	0.21	69provisional	0.16	14%	45	086% 113% 2+1%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	0.21	61provisional	0.14	13%	46	087% 112% 2+1%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	0.20	63provisional	0.14	13%	37	087% 112% 2+1%
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	0.14	90provisional	0.14	13%	45	087% 112% 2+1%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Vladan Kovacevic, 2.87 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	2.87	90provisional	2.87	53%	45	07% 118% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Max CrocombeGK	Millwall	2.61	90provisional	2.61	47%	23	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.