Championship · England

MillwallvNorwich City

Saturday 22 August at 12:30The Denlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1947 · Tackles v20260815-1947 · Shots v20260815-1947 · Fouls won v20260815-1947 · Cards v20260815-1947 · Saves v20260815-1947

Model projections

Fouls56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.44 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.54	84provisional	1.44	42%	33	024% 134% 224% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.69	71provisional	1.33	38%	38	028% 134% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.74	68provisional	1.30	37%	19	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.45	74provisional	1.19	33%	58	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.26	79provisional	1.11	31%	74	034% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.24	79provisional	1.09	30%	48	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	1.43	66provisional	1.04	28%	46	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.05	88provisional	1.03	27%	66	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 5+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.97	89provisional	0.97	25%	83	038% 136% 218% 36% 41% 5+0%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	1.32	66provisional	0.96	25%	25	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Tackles56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.39 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.49	84provisional	1.39	39%	33	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.52	79provisional	1.33	37%	48	031% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	1.48	79provisional	1.29	36%	74	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.45	79provisional	1.27	36%	74	032% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.19	88provisional	1.16	32%	74	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.12	88provisional	1.10	30%	66	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jack StaceyDEF	Norwich City	1.49	66provisional	1.09	30%	47	039% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	1.36	69provisional	1.04	28%	37	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	1.33	69provisional	1.03	28%	13	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	1.42	57provisional	0.91	24%	34	046% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Shots56 playersHighest: Femi Azeez, 2.21 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	2.68	74provisional	2.21	61%	58	015% 124% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	2.07	83provisional	1.90	55%	53	017% 128% 225% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	2.22	71provisional	1.75	50%	38	021% 129% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	2.16	66provisional	1.58	45%	25	026% 129% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mohamed TouréFWD	Norwich City	2.45	57provisional	1.56	45%	9	023% 132% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.96	68provisional	1.47	42%	19	028% 130% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.68	76provisional	1.42	41%	43	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	2.49	47provisional	1.29	34%	60	035% 131% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	1.73	58provisional	1.12	30%	12	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Caleb TaylorDEF	Millwall	1.11	84provisional	1.03	28%	25	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.00	89provisional	0.99	26%	42	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.95	89provisional	0.95	24%	83	040% 136% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	0.92	84provisional	0.87	22%	33	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Aidomo EmakhuFWD	Millwall	2.75	28provisional	0.85	21%	20	048% 131% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.23	62provisional	0.84	21%	16	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	1.39	54provisional	0.83	21%	46	046% 134% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	1.12	66provisional	0.82	20%	46	046% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.59	46provisional	0.81	20%	38	048% 132% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Ra'ees Bangura-WilliamsFWD	Millwall	1.65	44provisional	0.81	21%	13	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.83	88provisional	0.81	20%	66	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Mathias KvistgaardenFWD	Norwich City	2.65	25provisional	0.74	17%	17	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Macaulay LangstaffFWD	Millwall	2.21	30provisional	0.73	17%	31	054% 129% 211% 34% 41% 51% 6+0%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	0.82	79provisional	0.71	16%	74	050% 134% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Amankwah ForsonMID	Norwich City	1.72	36provisional	0.68	16%	18	055% 129% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Daniel KellyMID	Millwall	1.07	55provisional	0.66	16%	4	056% 128% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Oscar SchwartauMID	Norwich City	1.19	48provisional	0.64	14%	47	056% 130% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Matěj JurásekFWD	Norwich City	1.65	35provisional	0.63	14%	8	056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Derek Mazou-SackoMID	Millwall	0.89	64provisional	0.63	15%	13	057% 129% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	0.81	69provisional	0.63	14%	13	055% 132% 210% 33% 4+1%
Liam GibbsMID	Norwich City	1.07	48provisional	0.57	12%	17	059% 129% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	0.58	87provisional	0.56	11%	34	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Shane DuffyDEF	Norwich City	0.65	77provisional	0.56	11%	49	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Ruairi McConvilleDEF	Norwich City	0.64	78provisional	0.55	11%	27	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	0.55	88provisional	0.54	10%	74	059% 131% 28% 32% 4+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.57	79provisional	0.50	10%	74	061% 129% 28% 31% 4+0%
Tommy WatsonFWD	Millwall	2.59	18provisional	0.50	10%	2	062% 128% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Tony SpringettFWD	Norwich City	1.14	38provisional	0.49	9%	10	063% 128% 27% 32% 4+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	0.55	79provisional	0.48	9%	48	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Errol Mundle-SmithFWD	Norwich City	2.52	17provisional	0.48	9%	1	062% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
Jacob WrightMID	Norwich City	0.84	49provisional	0.46	9%	28	065% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	0.58	69provisional	0.44	8%	37	065% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Alfie DoughtyMID	Millwall	1.05	38provisional	0.44	9%	16	068% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Luke CundleMID	Millwall	1.08	34provisional	0.40	7%	26	069% 123% 26% 31% 4+0%
Will SmallboneMID	Millwall	1.39	25provisional	0.38	7%	3	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	0.68	48provisional	0.36	6%	45	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
José CórdobaDEF	Norwich City	0.39	77provisional	0.34	5%	50	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Barry BannanMID	Millwall	1.08	27provisional	0.33	5%	6	074% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Jack StaceyDEF	Norwich City	0.43	66provisional	0.31	5%	47	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Lucien MahovoDEF	Norwich City	0.54	50provisional	0.30	4%	8	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	0.46	57provisional	0.29	4%	34	076% 120% 24% 3+1%
Sam FieldMID	Norwich City	0.70	36provisional	0.28	4%	7	077% 119% 23% 3+1%
Jakov MedicDEF	Norwich City	0.29	68provisional	0.22	2%	14	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Ben ChriseneDEF	Norwich City	0.40	39provisional	0.17	2%	31	085% 114% 22% 3+0%
Wes HardingDEF	Millwall	0.48	21provisional	0.11	1%	4	090% 19% 21% 3+0%
Max CrocombeGK	Millwall	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	23	0100% 1+0%
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%

All 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.80 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.93	84provisional	1.80	52%	33	018% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.78	88provisional	1.73	51%	74	019% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.85	62provisional	1.27	35%	16	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.27	79provisional	1.12	31%	74	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	1.14	87provisional	1.11	30%	34	035% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.37	71provisional	1.08	29%	38	037% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.23	79provisional	1.08	29%	48	037% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.06	89provisional	1.05	28%	42	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.99	46provisional	1.02	27%	38	041% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	1.01	83provisional	0.93	24%	53	041% 135% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Cards56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 0.24 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	0.26	84provisional	0.24	21%	33	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.24	79provisional	0.21	19%	74	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	0.21	69provisional	0.16	15%	37	085% 113% 2+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.19	74provisional	0.16	15%	58	085% 113% 2+1%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	0.21	66provisional	0.16	14%	46	086% 113% 2+1%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	0.17	79provisional	0.15	14%	48	086% 113% 2+1%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.15	89provisional	0.15	14%	83	086% 113% 2+1%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.15	88provisional	0.15	14%	66	086% 113% 2+1%
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	0.14	90provisional	0.14	13%	45	087% 112% 2+1%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	0.19	66provisional	0.14	13%	25	087% 112% 2+1%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Vladan Kovacevic, 2.85 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	2.85	90provisional	2.85	52%	45	07% 118% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Max CrocombeGK	Millwall	2.59	90provisional	2.59	47%	23	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.