Championship · England

MillwallvNorwich City

Saturday 22 August at 12:30The Denlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.44 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.57	83provisional	1.44	42%	33	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.80	66provisional	1.32	38%	38	031% 131% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.92	59provisional	1.25	35%	19	036% 129% 218% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.50	69provisional	1.15	32%	58	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.34	76provisional	1.13	32%	74	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.36	73provisional	1.10	31%	48	038% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.08	87provisional	1.05	28%	66	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	1.48	61provisional	1.00	27%	46	039% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	1.00	89provisional	0.99	26%	83	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Jacob WrightMID	Norwich City	1.69	50provisional	0.94	25%	28	045% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	1.21	69provisional	0.93	25%	45	044% 131% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Luke CundleMID	Millwall	1.85	45provisional	0.93	25%	26	047% 128% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	1.39	60provisional	0.92	25%	25	045% 131% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.37	60provisional	0.91	24%	38	044% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	1.17	67provisional	0.86	22%	46	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	1.31	59provisional	0.86	22%	12	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Alfie DoughtyMID	Millwall	1.43	53provisional	0.85	22%	16	049% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	0.97	78provisional	0.83	20%	74	044% 135% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
José CórdobaDEF	Norwich City	1.05	71provisional	0.82	21%	50	047% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	0.82	89provisional	0.81	20%	42	045% 136% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	1.16	63provisional	0.81	20%	60	048% 131% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	1.15	63provisional	0.80	20%	37	049% 131% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Jack StaceyDEF	Norwich City	1.33	54provisional	0.80	21%	47	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lucien MahovoDEF	Norwich City	1.28	52provisional	0.74	18%	8	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	1.05	62provisional	0.73	18%	34	052% 130% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	0.94	69provisional	0.72	17%	16	050% 133% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	0.99	65provisional	0.72	17%	13	051% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ra'ees Bangura-WilliamsFWD	Millwall	1.46	44provisional	0.72	18%	13	055% 127% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	0.91	71provisional	0.71	17%	43	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	0.71	87provisional	0.69	15%	74	051% 134% 212% 33% 4+1%
Mohamed TouréFWD	Norwich City	1.14	54provisional	0.68	15%	9	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Shane DuffyDEF	Norwich City	0.64	88provisional	0.63	13%	49	054% 133% 211% 32% 4+0%
Mathias KvistgaardenFWD	Norwich City	1.80	31provisional	0.62	14%	17	058% 127% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Caleb TaylorDEF	Millwall	0.68	80provisional	0.60	13%	25	056% 131% 210% 32% 4+0%
Derek Mazou-SackoMID	Millwall	1.03	51provisional	0.58	14%	13	061% 124% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Liam GibbsMID	Norwich City	1.09	48provisional	0.58	13%	17	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Matěj JurásekFWD	Norwich City	1.59	33provisional	0.58	13%	8	060% 127% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Daniel KellyMID	Millwall	1.50	35provisional	0.58	13%	4	063% 123% 28% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Ben ChriseneDEF	Norwich City	0.98	52provisional	0.57	13%	31	060% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Macaulay LangstaffFWD	Millwall	1.33	38provisional	0.57	13%	31	062% 125% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	0.62	81provisional	0.56	11%	53	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Sam FieldMID	Norwich City	1.01	48provisional	0.54	12%	7	062% 127% 29% 32% 4+1%
Ruairi McConvilleDEF	Norwich City	0.65	72provisional	0.52	11%	27	062% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Will SmallboneMID	Millwall	1.37	33provisional	0.51	11%	3	065% 123% 28% 33% 41% 5+0%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	0.53	86provisional	0.51	9%	34	061% 130% 28% 31% 4+0%
Amankwah ForsonMID	Norwich City	1.36	33provisional	0.50	11%	18	064% 125% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Oscar SchwartauMID	Norwich City	0.90	49provisional	0.49	10%	47	063% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
Wes HardingDEF	Millwall	1.44	30provisional	0.48	12%	4	069% 119% 27% 33% 41% 5+0%
Barry BannanMID	Millwall	1.19	36provisional	0.47	10%	6	067% 123% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Aidomo EmakhuFWD	Millwall	1.16	36provisional	0.46	10%	20	067% 124% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Tony SpringettFWD	Norwich City	0.96	38provisional	0.40	7%	10	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Jakov MedicDEF	Norwich City	0.45	77provisional	0.39	6%	14	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Tommy WatsonFWD	Millwall	1.68	20provisional	0.38	7%	2	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Errol Mundle-SmithFWD	Norwich City	1.82	17provisional	0.34	5%	1	071% 124% 24% 3+1%
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	0.02	90provisional	0.02	—	45	098% 1+2%
Max CrocombeGK	Millwall	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	23	0100% 1+0%

All 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Tackles56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.37 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.50	83provisional	1.37	39%	33	029% 132% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.66	73provisional	1.35	38%	48	033% 129% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.54	76provisional	1.30	37%	74	032% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	1.49	78provisional	1.29	36%	74	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	1.60	69provisional	1.23	34%	45	037% 129% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.20	87provisional	1.16	32%	74	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.11	87provisional	1.08	29%	66	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jack StaceyDEF	Norwich City	1.69	54provisional	1.01	27%	47	046% 128% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	1.44	62provisional	1.00	27%	34	044% 129% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	1.42	63provisional	0.99	26%	37	044% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Shots56 playersHighest: Femi Azeez, 2.10 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	2.73	69provisional	2.10	57%	58	019% 124% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	2.07	81provisional	1.87	54%	53	018% 128% 225% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	2.41	63provisional	1.68	46%	60	027% 127% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	2.23	66provisional	1.64	47%	38	025% 128% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Mohamed TouréFWD	Norwich City	2.50	54provisional	1.50	43%	9	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	2.09	60provisional	1.38	39%	25	033% 128% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.74	71provisional	1.36	39%	43	031% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	2.01	59provisional	1.31	36%	19	036% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	1.80	59provisional	1.18	32%	12	034% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.58	60provisional	1.05	28%	38	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Fouls won56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.78 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.94	83provisional	1.78	51%	33	019% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.80	87provisional	1.74	51%	74	020% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.83	69provisional	1.40	40%	16	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.97	60provisional	1.31	36%	38	033% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.33	76provisional	1.12	31%	74	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	1.15	86provisional	1.10	30%	34	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.31	73provisional	1.07	29%	48	039% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.06	89provisional	1.05	28%	42	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.43	66provisional	1.05	29%	38	039% 132% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	1.02	81provisional	0.92	24%	53	041% 135% 216% 36% 41% 5+0%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Cards56 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 0.23 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	0.25	83provisional	0.23	21%	33	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.24	76provisional	0.21	18%	74	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.17	87provisional	0.16	15%	66	085% 114% 2+1%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.16	89provisional	0.16	15%	83	085% 114% 2+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.21	69provisional	0.16	15%	58	085% 113% 2+1%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	0.20	73provisional	0.16	14%	48	086% 113% 2+1%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	0.21	69provisional	0.16	14%	45	086% 113% 2+1%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	0.21	61provisional	0.14	13%	46	087% 112% 2+1%
Zak SturgeDEF	Millwall	0.20	63provisional	0.14	13%	37	087% 112% 2+1%
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	0.14	90provisional	0.14	13%	45	087% 112% 2+1%

10 of 56 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 56 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Vladan Kovacevic, 2.89 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	2.89	90provisional	2.89	53%	45	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Max CrocombeGK	Millwall	2.63	90provisional	2.63	47%	23	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.