Championship · England

MiddlesbroughvWest Bromwich Albion

Saturday 29 August at 12:30Riverside Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Aune Selland Heggebø, 1.48 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aune Selland HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.93	69provisional	1.48	43%	39	026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.38	75provisional	1.15	32%	66	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.27	80provisional	1.12	31%	72	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.08	82provisional	0.99	26%	74	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.52	55provisional	0.94	25%	12	045% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.90	89provisional	0.89	22%	44	041% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.87	89provisional	0.86	21%	24	043% 136% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.96	79provisional	0.85	21%	36	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.95	77provisional	0.82	20%	22	047% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	0.95	77provisional	0.81	20%	34	046% 133% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 2.42 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	2.64	82provisional	2.42	65%	74	014% 122% 222% 318% 412% 57% 6+6%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	2.37	80provisional	2.09	57%	72	018% 125% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	2.31	80provisional	2.05	56%	66	019% 125% 222% 316% 49% 55% 6+4%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	1.98	77provisional	1.69	48%	34	025% 127% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.95	77provisional	1.67	47%	56	023% 129% 223% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.65	89provisional	1.64	47%	46	022% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.86	79provisional	1.63	46%	36	025% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	1.64	89provisional	1.62	47%	44	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Alex MowattMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.88	75provisional	1.56	44%	74	027% 129% 222% 312% 46% 53% 6+1%
Ousmane DiakiteMID	West Bromwich Albion	2.45	56provisional	1.53	41%	37	035% 125% 217% 311% 47% 53% 6+3%
Nathaniel PhillipsDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.55	87provisional	1.50	43%	40	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	1.56	86provisional	1.48	42%	21	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.64	75provisional	1.36	38%	66	031% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.45	77provisional	1.25	35%	22	034% 131% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.91	55provisional	1.18	32%	12	040% 128% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Alfie GilchristDEF	West Bromwich Albion	2.07	51provisional	1.17	32%	10	038% 130% 217% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Samuel SilveraFWD	Middlesbrough	2.06	47provisional	1.07	28%	14	041% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	1.41	68provisional	1.06	29%	49	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	1.02	89provisional	1.00	27%	24	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jamaldeen JimohMID	West Bromwich Albion	2.50	35provisional	0.97	25%	4	048% 127% 213% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	1.12	78provisional	0.97	25%	44	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.34	65provisional	0.97	25%	40	042% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alex GilbertMID	Middlesbrough	2.46	34provisional	0.93	23%	10	050% 127% 212% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Samuel George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	1.11	75provisional	0.93	24%	26	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	1.34	60provisional	0.89	23%	33	046% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.05	73provisional	0.86	22%	72	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Michael JohnstonFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.21	59provisional	0.80	20%	53	050% 130% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Sverre Halseth NypanMID	Middlesbrough	2.27	31provisional	0.77	18%	8	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 51% 6+0%
Aune Selland HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.00	69provisional	0.77	19%	39	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	1.52	42provisional	0.71	18%	7	055% 128% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jeremy Leonel Sarmiento MoranteFWD	Middlesbrough	1.86	28provisional	0.59	13%	8	061% 126% 29% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Marcus ForssFWD	Middlesbrough	1.66	27provisional	0.50	11%	7	066% 123% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Micah HamiltonFWD	Middlesbrough	2.09	21provisional	0.49	10%	4	065% 124% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Sontje HansenFWD	Middlesbrough	1.64	27provisional	0.48	10%	8	065% 126% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Leo Alexander Francis CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	1.39	29provisional	0.45	8%	5	067% 125% 26% 32% 40% 5+0%
Mamadou Kaly SeneFWD	Middlesbrough	1.59	25provisional	0.44	8%	7	067% 125% 26% 32% 40% 5+0%
Josh MajaFWD	West Bromwich Albion	0.72	55provisional	0.44	8%	44	067% 125% 27% 31% 4+0%
Dávid StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	0.61	59provisional	0.41	7%	30	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Daryl DikeFWD	West Bromwich Albion	0.78	27provisional	0.23	3%	8	081% 116% 23% 31% 4+0%
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.07	90provisional	0.07	0%	55	093% 17% 2+0%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.06	90provisional	0.06	0%	17	094% 16% 2+0%
Max O’LearyGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.01	89provisional	0.01	—	16	099% 1+1%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots42 playersHighest: Finn Azaz, 2.54 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	2.93	78provisional	2.54	69%	44	011% 120% 223% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	3.22	68provisional	2.42	64%	49	015% 120% 221% 317% 412% 57% 6+7%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	2.17	73provisional	1.76	50%	72	022% 128% 223% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Dávid StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	2.35	59provisional	1.55	44%	30	026% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	2.32	60provisional	1.54	43%	33	027% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.73	77provisional	1.48	43%	56	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Michael JohnstonFWD	West Bromwich Albion	2.20	59provisional	1.45	41%	53	030% 129% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Aune Selland HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.70	69provisional	1.30	37%	39	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.28	82provisional	1.18	33%	74	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Leo Alexander Francis CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	3.58	29provisional	1.15	29%	5	038% 133% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+2%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 2.09 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	2.28	82provisional	2.09	59%	74	016% 125% 224% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	1.54	68provisional	1.15	32%	49	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	1.24	80provisional	1.10	30%	66	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.34	73provisional	1.09	30%	72	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alex MowattMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.30	75provisional	1.08	30%	74	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.26	75provisional	1.05	28%	66	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aune Selland HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.33	69provisional	1.02	27%	39	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	1.17	78provisional	1.01	27%	44	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	2.01	42provisional	0.94	25%	7	046% 129% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.29	65provisional	0.93	24%	40	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Cards42 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 0.31 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.31	90provisional	0.31	27%	55	073% 123% 24% 3+0%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.31	90provisional	0.31	27%	17	073% 123% 24% 3+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.24	80provisional	0.22	19%	72	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.22	75provisional	0.19	17%	66	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.20	77provisional	0.17	16%	22	084% 114% 2+1%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.17	89provisional	0.17	15%	24	085% 114% 2+1%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.19	79provisional	0.17	15%	36	085% 114% 2+1%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.27	55provisional	0.16	15%	12	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Samuel George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	0.19	75provisional	0.16	14%	26	086% 113% 2+1%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.15	89provisional	0.15	14%	44	086% 113% 2+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Max O’Leary, 2.73 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Max O’LearyGK	West Bromwich Albion	2.77	89provisional	2.73	50%	16	08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	2.66	90provisional	2.66	48%	17	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	2.17	90provisional	2.17	36%	55	013% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.