Championship · England

MiddlesbroughvWest Bromwich Albion

Saturday 29 August at 12:30Riverside Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Aune Heggebø, 1.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aune HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.91	69provisional	1.46	42%	39	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.36	75provisional	1.13	31%	66	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.25	80provisional	1.11	30%	72	035% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.07	82provisional	0.97	26%	74	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.51	55provisional	0.93	25%	12	045% 130% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.89	89provisional	0.88	22%	44	042% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.86	89provisional	0.85	21%	24	043% 136% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.95	79provisional	0.84	21%	36	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.94	77provisional	0.81	20%	22	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Neto BorgesDEF	Middlesbrough	0.94	77provisional	0.80	20%	34	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 1.60 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.74	82provisional	1.60	45%	74	025% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	1.65	80provisional	1.46	41%	66	028% 130% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.55	80provisional	1.37	38%	72	030% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.34	77provisional	1.15	32%	56	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	1.08	86provisional	1.03	28%	21	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.04	89provisional	1.03	27%	46	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	1.02	89provisional	1.01	27%	44	039% 135% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Neto BorgesDEF	Middlesbrough	1.14	77provisional	0.97	26%	34	042% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nat PhillipsDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.97	87provisional	0.94	24%	40	041% 135% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.07	79provisional	0.94	24%	36	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Finn Azaz, 2.49 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	2.88	78provisional	2.49	68%	44	012% 121% 223% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	3.17	68provisional	2.39	63%	49	016% 121% 221% 317% 412% 57% 6+6%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	2.13	73provisional	1.73	50%	72	022% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
David StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	2.32	59provisional	1.53	43%	30	027% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	2.28	60provisional	1.51	43%	33	028% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.70	77provisional	1.46	42%	56	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mikey JohnstonFWD	West Bromwich Albion	2.17	59provisional	1.43	40%	53	031% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Aune HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.67	69provisional	1.28	36%	39	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.26	82provisional	1.15	32%	74	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Leo CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	3.54	29provisional	1.14	28%	5	038% 133% 216% 36% 43% 51% 6+2%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 2.04 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	2.23	82provisional	2.04	58%	74	016% 126% 224% 317% 410% 54% 6+3%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	1.50	68provisional	1.13	31%	49	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	1.21	80provisional	1.08	29%	66	037% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.31	73provisional	1.06	29%	72	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alex MowattMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.28	75provisional	1.06	29%	74	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.24	75provisional	1.03	28%	66	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aune HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.30	69provisional	0.99	27%	39	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	1.14	78provisional	0.99	26%	44	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	1.97	42provisional	0.92	25%	7	046% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.26	65provisional	0.91	24%	40	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sam SilveraFWD	Middlesbrough	1.75	47provisional	0.91	23%	14	045% 132% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.95	80provisional	0.84	21%	72	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ousmane DiakitéMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.24	56provisional	0.77	20%	37	052% 128% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Neto BorgesDEF	Middlesbrough	0.90	77provisional	0.77	19%	34	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Josh MajaFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.20	55provisional	0.73	18%	44	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.84	77provisional	0.73	17%	56	050% 133% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	1.03	60provisional	0.69	16%	33	053% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh-AlobaMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.63	35provisional	0.64	15%	4	059% 126% 210% 34% 41% 5+0%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.70	79provisional	0.62	13%	36	055% 131% 210% 33% 4+1%
Sontje HansenFWD	Middlesbrough	2.06	27provisional	0.61	13%	8	058% 129% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.60	89provisional	0.60	12%	44	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Leo CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	1.77	29provisional	0.57	12%	5	060% 128% 28% 32% 41% 50% 6+0%
Mikey JohnstonFWD	West Bromwich Albion	0.86	59provisional	0.56	12%	53	059% 129% 29% 32% 4+1%
Alfie GilchristDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.87	51provisional	0.49	10%	10	063% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
Jeremy SarmientoFWD	Middlesbrough	1.57	28provisional	0.49	10%	8	065% 125% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Daryl Enyinnaya DikeFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.60	27provisional	0.48	10%	8	067% 123% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	0.55	75provisional	0.46	8%	26	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Nat PhillipsDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.43	87provisional	0.42	7%	40	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Sverre NypanMID	Middlesbrough	1.21	31provisional	0.41	7%	8	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.40	89provisional	0.40	6%	46	067% 126% 25% 31% 4+0%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.64	55provisional	0.40	7%	12	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Kaly SèneFWD	Middlesbrough	1.42	25provisional	0.40	7%	7	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Alex GilbertMID	Middlesbrough	1.04	34provisional	0.39	8%	10	071% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Micah HamiltonFWD	Middlesbrough	1.59	21provisional	0.38	7%	4	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.38	89provisional	0.37	6%	24	069% 125% 25% 3+1%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.43	77provisional	0.37	6%	22	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	0.36	86provisional	0.34	5%	21	071% 124% 24% 3+1%
David StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	0.49	59provisional	0.32	5%	30	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Marcus ForssFWD	Middlesbrough	0.81	27provisional	0.24	4%	7	080% 116% 23% 3+1%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.18	90provisional	0.18	2%	17	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
Max O'LearyGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.16	89provisional	0.16	1%	16	086% 113% 2+1%
Sol BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.12	90provisional	0.12	1%	55	089% 110% 2+1%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Cards42 playersHighest: Sol Brynn, 0.31 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Sol BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.31	90provisional	0.31	27%	55	073% 123% 24% 3+0%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.31	90provisional	0.31	27%	17	073% 123% 24% 3+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.24	80provisional	0.21	19%	72	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.22	75provisional	0.18	17%	66	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.20	77provisional	0.17	15%	22	085% 114% 2+1%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.17	89provisional	0.17	15%	24	085% 114% 2+1%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.19	79provisional	0.16	15%	36	085% 114% 2+1%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.26	55provisional	0.16	15%	12	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	0.19	75provisional	0.15	14%	26	086% 113% 2+1%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.15	89provisional	0.15	14%	44	086% 113% 2+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Max O'Leary, 2.78 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Max O'LearyGK	West Bromwich Albion	2.82	89provisional	2.78	51%	16	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	2.70	90provisional	2.70	49%	17	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
Sol BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	2.16	90provisional	2.16	36%	55	014% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.