Championship · England

MiddlesbroughvWest Bromwich Albion

Saturday 29 August at 12:30Riverside Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Aune Selland Heggebø, 1.48 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aune Selland HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.93	69provisional	1.48	43%	39	026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.38	75provisional	1.15	32%	66	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.27	80provisional	1.12	31%	72	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.08	82provisional	0.99	26%	74	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.52	55provisional	0.94	25%	12	045% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.90	89provisional	0.89	22%	44	041% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.87	89provisional	0.86	21%	24	043% 136% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.96	79provisional	0.85	21%	36	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.95	77provisional	0.82	20%	22	047% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	0.95	77provisional	0.81	20%	34	046% 133% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 2.42 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	2.64	82provisional	2.42	65%	74	014% 122% 222% 318% 412% 57% 6+6%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	2.37	80provisional	2.09	57%	72	018% 125% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	2.31	80provisional	2.05	56%	66	019% 125% 222% 316% 49% 55% 6+4%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	1.98	77provisional	1.69	48%	34	025% 127% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.95	77provisional	1.67	47%	56	023% 129% 223% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.65	89provisional	1.64	47%	46	022% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.86	79provisional	1.63	46%	36	025% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	1.64	89provisional	1.62	47%	44	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Alex MowattMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.88	75provisional	1.56	44%	74	027% 129% 222% 312% 46% 53% 6+1%
Ousmane DiakiteMID	West Bromwich Albion	2.45	56provisional	1.53	41%	37	035% 125% 217% 311% 47% 53% 6+3%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Finn Azaz, 2.54 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	2.93	78provisional	2.54	69%	44	011% 120% 223% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	3.22	68provisional	2.42	64%	49	015% 120% 221% 317% 412% 57% 6+7%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	2.17	73provisional	1.76	50%	72	022% 128% 223% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Dávid StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	2.35	59provisional	1.55	44%	30	026% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	2.32	60provisional	1.54	43%	33	027% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.73	77provisional	1.48	43%	56	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Michael JohnstonFWD	West Bromwich Albion	2.20	59provisional	1.45	41%	53	030% 129% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Aune Selland HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.70	69provisional	1.30	37%	39	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.28	82provisional	1.18	33%	74	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Leo Alexander Francis CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	3.58	29provisional	1.15	29%	5	038% 133% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+2%
Josh MajaFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.81	55provisional	1.10	30%	44	040% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marcus ForssFWD	Middlesbrough	3.19	27provisional	0.95	23%	7	049% 128% 212% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.89	89provisional	0.88	22%	44	042% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Tom FellowsMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.16	65provisional	0.84	21%	40	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Samuel SilveraFWD	Middlesbrough	1.58	47provisional	0.82	20%	14	049% 131% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alex GilbertMID	Middlesbrough	2.11	34provisional	0.80	20%	10	053% 127% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sontje HansenFWD	Middlesbrough	2.58	27provisional	0.76	18%	8	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jeremy Leonel Sarmiento MoranteFWD	Middlesbrough	2.38	28provisional	0.75	18%	8	053% 129% 211% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	0.81	80provisional	0.72	17%	66	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Daryl DikeFWD	West Bromwich Albion	2.41	27provisional	0.72	17%	8	057% 127% 210% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.83	75provisional	0.69	16%	66	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Alex MowattMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.78	75provisional	0.64	14%	74	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Nathaniel PhillipsDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.67	87provisional	0.64	14%	40	053% 133% 211% 32% 4+1%
Micah HamiltonFWD	Middlesbrough	2.60	21provisional	0.62	14%	4	059% 127% 29% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jamaldeen JimohMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.56	35provisional	0.61	14%	4	060% 126% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mamadou Kaly SeneFWD	Middlesbrough	2.05	25provisional	0.57	12%	7	060% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.61	80provisional	0.54	11%	72	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	0.61	77provisional	0.52	10%	34	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.58	79provisional	0.51	10%	36	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Sverre Halseth NypanMID	Middlesbrough	1.45	31provisional	0.49	10%	8	063% 127% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Ousmane DiakiteMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.79	56provisional	0.49	11%	37	064% 125% 28% 32% 4+1%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.47	89provisional	0.46	8%	46	063% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.47	89provisional	0.46	8%	24	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Samuel George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	0.50	75provisional	0.41	7%	26	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	0.42	86provisional	0.40	6%	21	067% 126% 25% 31% 4+0%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	0.69	42provisional	0.32	5%	7	074% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.51	55provisional	0.32	5%	12	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Alfie GilchristDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.43	51provisional	0.24	3%	10	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.26	77provisional	0.23	3%	22	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	55	0100% 1+0%
Max O’LearyGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	17	0100% 1+0%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won42 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 2.09 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	2.28	82provisional	2.09	59%	74	016% 125% 224% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	1.54	68provisional	1.15	32%	49	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	1.24	80provisional	1.10	30%	66	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.34	73provisional	1.09	30%	72	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alex MowattMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.30	75provisional	1.08	30%	74	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.26	75provisional	1.05	28%	66	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aune Selland HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.33	69provisional	1.02	27%	39	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	1.17	78provisional	1.01	27%	44	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	2.01	42provisional	0.94	25%	7	046% 129% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.29	65provisional	0.93	24%	40	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Cards42 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 0.31 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.31	90provisional	0.31	27%	55	073% 123% 24% 3+0%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	0.31	90provisional	0.31	27%	17	073% 123% 24% 3+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.24	80provisional	0.22	19%	72	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.22	75provisional	0.19	17%	66	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Chris MephamDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.20	77provisional	0.17	16%	22	084% 114% 2+1%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.17	89provisional	0.17	15%	24	085% 114% 2+1%
George CampbellDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.19	79provisional	0.17	15%	36	085% 114% 2+1%
Krystian BielikDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.27	55provisional	0.16	15%	12	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Samuel George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	0.19	75provisional	0.16	14%	26	086% 113% 2+1%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.15	89provisional	0.15	14%	44	086% 113% 2+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Max O’Leary, 2.73 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Max O’LearyGK	West Bromwich Albion	2.77	89provisional	2.73	50%	16	08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	2.66	90provisional	2.66	48%	17	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	2.17	90provisional	2.17	36%	55	013% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.