Premier League · England

Nottingham ForestvLeeds United

Saturday 22 August at 15:00The City Groundexpected lineup

Referee

Robert Jones

46 matches on record

Fouls per game

23.4

+1% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formMorgan Gibbs-White over 0.5 shots on target: 9/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 15/20 · 4/4 at home · strip 1 3 0 1 3 1 1 1 2 2 · market 62% · best 1.75 (32Red) · bet365 1.73
formJames Justin over 1.5 tackles: 8/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 15/20 · 3/5 away · strip 3 2 6 4 3 7 0 3 0 4 · market 71% · best 1.44 (Bet365) · bet365 1.44
formJames Justin over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 4 in a row
Last 20: 15/20 · 4/5 away · strip 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 3 1 0 · market 68% · best 1.57 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.50
formNeco Williams over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 13/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 · market 65% · best 1.53 (Bet365) · bet365 1.53
formDominic Calvert-Lewin over 0.5 shots on target: 8/10 of his last 10, 4 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 4/5 away · strip 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 1 2 0 · market 70% · best 1.60 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.40
formJayden Bogle over 0.5 fouls: 9/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 15/20 · 5/5 away · strip 1 0 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 · market 80% · best 1.30 (Bet365) · bet365 1.30
formAnton Stach over 1.5 tackles: 8/10 of his last 10, 3 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 3/4 away · strip 3 3 2 1 2 6 3 0 4 5 · market 75% · best 1.36 (Bet365) · bet365 1.36
formDominic Calvert-Lewin over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 14/20 · 4/5 away · strip 1 1 0 1 3 2 5 0 1 2 · market 75% · best 1.44 (Bet365) · bet365 1.44

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 8 live calls

Brenden Aaronsonover 1.50 Tackles1.80 at bet365 · fair 1.50+20.0%
Omari Hutchinsonover 1.50 Fouls3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.55+17.6%
Omari Hutchinsonover 2.50 Shots3.40 at bet365 · fair 3.00+13.3%
Dominic Calvert-Lewinover 3.50 Shots4.00 at bet365 · fair 3.60+11.1%
Brenden Aaronsonover 2.50 Shots3.40 at bet365 · fair 3.10+9.7%
Jayden Bogleover 1.50 Tackles1.53 at bet365 · fair 1.40+9.5%
Morgan Gibbs-Whiteover 2.50 Shots2.10 at bet365 · fair 1.93+8.8%
Ethan Ampaduover 1.50 Tackles1.44 at bet365 · fair 1.36+6.2%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls51 playersHighest: Ethan Ampadu, 1.27 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ethan AmpaduMID	Leeds United	1.32	85provisional	1.27	36%	64	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dominic Calvert-LewinFWD	Leeds United	1.33	76provisional	1.17	33%	61	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Anton StachMID	Leeds United	1.22	84provisional	1.16	32%	59	032% 136% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jayden BogleDEF	Leeds United	1.14	85provisional	1.09	30%	78	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ibrahim SangaréMID	Nottingham Forest	1.48	58provisional	1.05	29%	41	039% 132% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Igor JesusFWD	Nottingham Forest	1.25	68provisional	1.01	27%	37	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Jaka BijolDEF	Leeds United	1.00	83provisional	0.94	24%	59	040% 136% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Xaver SchlagerMID	—	1.11	72provisional	0.94	25%	30	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Gabriel GudmundssonDEF	Leeds United	0.96	82provisional	0.90	23%	32	041% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ao TanakaMID	Leeds United	1.03	73provisional	0.87	22%	71	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 51 →

Shots51 playersHighest: Morgan Gibbs-White, 2.32 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMID	Nottingham Forest	2.47	84provisional	2.32	65%	71	012% 123% 225% 319% 411% 56% 6+4%
Igor JesusFWD	Nottingham Forest	2.80	68provisional	2.21	61%	37	015% 124% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Chris WoodFWD	Nottingham Forest	2.39	78provisional	2.12	60%	51	015% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Dominic Calvert-LewinFWD	Leeds United	2.24	76provisional	1.93	55%	61	018% 127% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+2%
Arnaud KalimuendoFWD	Nottingham Forest	2.20	65provisional	1.65	47%	28	025% 128% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Daniel JamesFWD	Leeds United	2.52	54provisional	1.62	44%	55	028% 127% 219% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Brenden AaronsonMID	Leeds United	1.69	76provisional	1.46	42%	83	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Anton StachMID	Leeds United	1.53	84provisional	1.44	42%	59	025% 133% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Callum Hudson-OdoiFWD	Nottingham Forest	1.68	71provisional	1.38	39%	61	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Noah OkaforFWD	Leeds United	1.99	58provisional	1.37	39%	43	030% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%

10 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 51 →

Shots on target47 playersHighest: Chris Wood, 1.00 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Chris WoodFWD	Nottingham Forest	1.13	78provisional	1.00	62%	51	038% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Dominic Calvert-LewinFWD	Leeds United	1.00	76provisional	0.86	56%	61	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMID	Nottingham Forest	0.91	84provisional	0.86	56%	71	044% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Igor JesusFWD	Nottingham Forest	0.99	68provisional	0.78	53%	37	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Arnaud KalimuendoFWD	Nottingham Forest	0.90	65provisional	0.68	47%	28	053% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Daniel JamesFWD	Leeds United	0.90	54provisional	0.58	41%	55	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Omari HutchinsonFWD	Nottingham Forest	0.68	74provisional	0.58	43%	62	057% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Noah OkaforFWD	Leeds United	0.79	58provisional	0.55	40%	43	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Callum Hudson-OdoiFWD	Nottingham Forest	0.66	71provisional	0.54	41%	61	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Lukas NmechaFWD	Leeds United	1.12	37provisional	0.53	38%	50	062% 127% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Fouls won51 playersHighest: Gabriel Gudmundsson, 1.44 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Gabriel GudmundssonDEF	Leeds United	1.55	82provisional	1.44	42%	32	025% 133% 223% 312% 44% 51% 6+1%
Dan NdoyeFWD	Nottingham Forest	2.45	44provisional	1.31	35%	54	036% 129% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Brenden AaronsonMID	Leeds United	1.47	76provisional	1.27	36%	83	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Omari HutchinsonFWD	Nottingham Forest	1.28	74provisional	1.08	30%	62	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Neco WilliamsDEF	Nottingham Forest	1.16	83provisional	1.08	29%	72	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
James JustinDEF	Leeds United	1.14	78provisional	1.01	27%	67	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMID	Nottingham Forest	1.07	84provisional	1.01	27%	71	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+1%
Igor JesusFWD	Nottingham Forest	1.27	68provisional	0.99	26%	37	039% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ethan AmpaduMID	Leeds United	1.00	85provisional	0.95	25%	64	040% 136% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Dominic Calvert-LewinFWD	Leeds United	1.10	76provisional	0.94	25%	61	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 51 →

Saves4 playersHighest: Lucas Perri, 3.19 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Lucas PerriGK	Leeds United	3.27	87provisional	3.19	59%	16	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
James TraffordGK	—	3.12	89provisional	3.09	57%	49	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Matz SelsGK	Nottingham Forest	3.10	88provisional	3.05	56%	69	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Angus GunnGK	Nottingham Forest	2.63	74provisional	2.22	38%	36	016% 124% 222% 317% 410% 56% 6+5%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.