Premier League · England

Manchester CityvAFC Bournemouth

Sunday 23 August at 14:00Etihad Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Jarred Gillett

44 matches on record

Fouls per game

20.7

-11% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formNico O'Reilly over 0.5 fouls: 9/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 15/20 · 4/4 at home · strip 1 2 2 4 1 2 1 0 1 1 · market 80% · best 1.29 (BetMGM) · bet365 1.29
formÁlvaro Rodríguez over 0.5 tackles: 8/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 16/20 · 5/5 away · strip 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 · market 75% · best 1.61 (Bet365) · bet365 1.61
formÁlvaro Rodríguez over 1.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 4/5 away · strip 2 2 2 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 · market 74% · best 1.44 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.40
formVitor Reis over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 15/20 · 5/5 at home · strip 3 0 2 1 1 3 4 0 2 1 · market 69% · best 1.73 (Bet365) · bet365 1.73
opponentManchester City concede 22.5 tackles a game — 1st most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. Good news for AFC Bournemouth's tacklers.
refereeJarred Gillett: 19.9 fouls and 3.9 cards a game (league 22.3 / 3.4)
-2.3 fouls and +0.4 cards against his league's average over his last 20. Lets play flow — leans fouls unders.
opponentAFC Bournemouth concede 3.1 shots on target a game — 18th most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. A hard place to get shots on target.
opponentManchester City concede 2.9 shots on target a game — 19th most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. A hard place to get shots on target.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 7 live calls

James Hillover 1.50 Tackles1.57 at bet365 · fair 1.33+18.1%
Marcus Tavernierover 2.50 Shots4.00 at bet365 · fair 3.50+14.3%
Antoine Semenyoover 1.50 Shots on target3.25 at bet365 · fair 2.88+12.8%
Marcus Tavernierover 2.50 Tackles3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.70+11.1%
Nico O'Reillyover 2.50 Tackles2.50 at bet365 · fair 2.25+11.1%
Evanilsonover 2.50 Shots3.50 at bet365 · fair 3.20+9.4%
Erling Haalandover 5.50 Shots3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.75+9.1%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls49 playersHighest: Tyler Adams, 1.37 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Tyler AdamsMID	AFC Bournemouth	1.57	75provisional	1.37	39%	53	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Antoine SemenyoFWD	Manchester City	1.26	86provisional	1.22	34%	74	030% 136% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Elliot AndersonMID	—	1.30	82provisional	1.21	34%	75	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alex ScottMID	AFC Bournemouth	1.35	69provisional	1.10	30%	57	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nico GonzálezMID	Manchester City	1.32	71provisional	1.10	30%	36	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Álvaro RodríguezFWD	—	1.41	64provisional	1.09	30%	56	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nico O'ReillyDEF	Manchester City	1.19	78provisional	1.06	29%	43	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Vitor ReisDEF	Manchester City	1.02	85provisional	0.98	26%	37	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Eli KroupiFWD	AFC Bournemouth	1.32	61provisional	0.97	26%	33	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Adam SmithDEF	AFC Bournemouth	1.24	65provisional	0.96	25%	47	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Shots49 playersHighest: Erling Haaland, 3.40 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Erling HaalandFWD	Manchester City	3.52	86provisional	3.40	83%	66	05% 113% 219% 320% 417% 512% 6+15%
Omar MarmoushFWD	Manchester City	3.81	56provisional	2.53	61%	54	018% 121% 218% 315% 411% 58% 6+10%
Antoine SemenyoFWD	Manchester City	2.58	86provisional	2.50	69%	74	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+5%
Tijjani ReijndersMID	Manchester City	2.41	77provisional	2.11	60%	65	016% 125% 224% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%
Divine MukasaMID	Manchester City	2.60	62provisional	1.90	53%	17	021% 126% 222% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
Phil FodenMID	Manchester City	2.38	58provisional	1.63	45%	61	027% 128% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
SavinhoFWD	Manchester City	2.51	49provisional	1.47	40%	53	032% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Álvaro RodríguezFWD	—	1.93	64provisional	1.45	41%	56	028% 131% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Rayan CherkiMID	Manchester City	2.78	41provisional	1.43	38%	33	031% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
EvanilsonFWD	AFC Bournemouth	1.59	78provisional	1.41	41%	67	026% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jérémy DokuFWD	Manchester City	2.16	54provisional	1.39	38%	59	032% 130% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marcus TavernierMID	AFC Bournemouth	1.55	78provisional	1.37	39%	63	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
RayanFWD	AFC Bournemouth	1.57	77provisional	1.37	39%	15	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jack GrealishFWD	Manchester City	1.72	69provisional	1.36	39%	40	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Eli KroupiFWD	AFC Bournemouth	1.85	61provisional	1.33	37%	33	031% 131% 221% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Nico O'ReillyDEF	Manchester City	1.44	78provisional	1.27	36%	43	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mateo KovacicMID	Manchester City	1.82	58provisional	1.24	34%	37	035% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Elliot AndersonMID	—	1.30	82provisional	1.20	34%	75	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Claudio EcheverriMID	Manchester City	2.66	28provisional	1.02	26%	24	040% 134% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%
Josko GvardiolDEF	Manchester City	1.15	72provisional	0.95	25%	55	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Daniel JebbisonFWD	AFC Bournemouth	1.30	53provisional	0.83	21%	67	048% 131% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Marc GuéhiDEF	Manchester City	0.83	89provisional	0.82	20%	69	045% 135% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
David BrooksFWD	AFC Bournemouth	2.04	29provisional	0.80	19%	60	049% 131% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan ChristieMID	AFC Bournemouth	1.19	53provisional	0.77	19%	55	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Alex ScottMID	AFC Bournemouth	0.94	69provisional	0.75	18%	57	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Justin KluivertMID	AFC Bournemouth	1.27	47provisional	0.74	18%	54	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Rayan Aït-NouriDEF	Manchester City	0.97	65provisional	0.73	18%	54	051% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Nico GonzálezMID	Manchester City	0.86	71provisional	0.70	16%	36	051% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Ben Gannon-DoakFWD	AFC Bournemouth	1.18	42provisional	0.62	14%	32	058% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Vitor ReisDEF	Manchester City	0.62	85provisional	0.59	12%	37	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Jeremy MongaFWD	—	1.18	37provisional	0.56	12%	34	060% 128% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Rúben DiasDEF	Manchester City	0.57	85provisional	0.54	11%	53	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Rico LewisDEF	Manchester City	0.64	69provisional	0.51	10%	39	062% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Amine AdliFWD	AFC Bournemouth	1.23	30provisional	0.49	10%	51	063% 127% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Issa KaboréDEF	—	0.60	72provisional	0.49	9%	39	062% 129% 28% 31% 4+0%
Abdukodir KhusanovDEF	Manchester City	0.56	75provisional	0.48	9%	27	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Nathan AkéDEF	Manchester City	0.73	49provisional	0.43	8%	28	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Juma BahDEF	—	0.48	76provisional	0.42	7%	12	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Adrien TruffertDEF	AFC Bournemouth	0.35	88provisional	0.34	5%	38	071% 124% 24% 3+1%
James HillDEF	AFC Bournemouth	0.41	72provisional	0.34	5%	39	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Matheus NunesDEF	Manchester City	0.35	80provisional	0.31	4%	60	074% 122% 24% 3+1%
Tyler AdamsMID	AFC Bournemouth	0.35	75provisional	0.30	4%	53	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Juanlu SánchezDEF	—	0.43	44provisional	0.23	3%	64	080% 117% 23% 3+0%
Lewis CookMID	AFC Bournemouth	0.34	51provisional	0.21	2%	54	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Julián AraujoDEF	AFC Bournemouth	0.21	45provisional	0.12	1%	12	089% 110% 2+1%
Bafodé DiakitéDEF	AFC Bournemouth	0.20	48provisional	0.12	1%	18	089% 110% 2+1%
Adam SmithDEF	AFC Bournemouth	0.13	65provisional	0.10	1%	47	091% 19% 2+1%
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK	Manchester City	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
Djordje PetrovicGK	AFC Bournemouth	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%

All 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots on target47 playersHighest: Erling Haaland, 1.69 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Erling HaalandFWD	Manchester City	1.75	86provisional	1.69	80%	66	020% 131% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Antoine SemenyoFWD	Manchester City	1.03	86provisional	1.00	62%	74	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Omar MarmoushFWD	Manchester City	1.39	56provisional	0.92	55%	54	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tijjani ReijndersMID	Manchester City	0.76	77provisional	0.66	47%	65	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Divine MukasaMID	Manchester City	0.90	62provisional	0.66	46%	17	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Álvaro RodríguezFWD	—	0.82	64provisional	0.62	44%	56	056% 131% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
SavinhoFWD	Manchester City	1.02	49provisional	0.60	41%	53	059% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Eli KroupiFWD	AFC Bournemouth	0.80	61provisional	0.58	42%	33	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+1%
EvanilsonFWD	AFC Bournemouth	0.63	78provisional	0.56	42%	67	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Phil FodenMID	Manchester City	0.78	58provisional	0.53	39%	61	061% 128% 29% 32% 4+1%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Fouls won49 playersHighest: Jack Grealish, 2.20 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jack GrealishFWD	Manchester City	2.79	69provisional	2.20	59%	40	019% 122% 221% 316% 411% 56% 6+5%
Elliot AndersonMID	—	2.05	82provisional	1.89	55%	75	017% 128% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Jérémy DokuFWD	Manchester City	2.81	54provisional	1.78	48%	59	025% 127% 220% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Omar MarmoushFWD	Manchester City	2.40	56provisional	1.58	43%	54	030% 127% 219% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Issa KaboréDEF	—	1.68	72provisional	1.38	39%	39	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Rico LewisDEF	Manchester City	1.70	69provisional	1.34	38%	39	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marc GuéhiDEF	Manchester City	1.11	89provisional	1.10	30%	69	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alex ScottMID	AFC Bournemouth	1.37	69provisional	1.09	30%	57	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Álvaro RodríguezFWD	—	1.42	64provisional	1.06	29%	56	038% 133% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Phil FodenMID	Manchester City	1.51	58provisional	1.02	27%	61	042% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Djordje Petrovic, 3.26 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Djordje PetrovicGK	AFC Bournemouth	3.30	89provisional	3.26	60%	38	05% 114% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK	Manchester City	2.43	88provisional	2.40	42%	34	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.