Premier League · England

Aston VillavArsenal

Monday 31 August at 20:00Villa Parklineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Kai Havertz, 1.35 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	1.73	70provisional	1.35	39%	31	030% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Mikel MerinoMID	Arsenal	2.30	52provisional	1.34	37%	31	036% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	1.30	81provisional	1.18	33%	56	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	1.51	69provisional	1.15	32%	55	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	1.63	62provisional	1.12	31%	30	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	1.56	60provisional	1.04	28%	37	039% 132% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	1.30	72provisional	1.03	28%	35	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	1.12	82provisional	1.02	27%	60	037% 136% 218% 37% 42% 5+0%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	1.35	67provisional	1.00	27%	43	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Martín ZubimendiMID	Arsenal	1.13	79provisional	0.99	26%	36	038% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Jurriën Timber, 2.14 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	2.37	81provisional	2.14	59%	56	016% 125% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	2.81	67provisional	2.09	56%	43	019% 124% 221% 315% 410% 55% 6+5%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	2.54	72provisional	2.02	55%	35	021% 124% 221% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Martín ZubimendiMID	Arsenal	2.25	79provisional	1.97	55%	36	018% 127% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	2.16	82provisional	1.97	55%	60	018% 127% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Declan RiceMID	Arsenal	2.06	84provisional	1.91	54%	69	019% 127% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Piero HincapiéDEF	Arsenal	2.34	72provisional	1.87	51%	20	024% 125% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Lucas DigneDEF	Aston Villa	2.27	67provisional	1.69	47%	51	026% 127% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Mikel MerinoMID	Arsenal	2.88	52provisional	1.68	43%	31	031% 126% 217% 311% 47% 54% 6+4%
William SalibaDEF	Arsenal	1.65	86provisional	1.57	45%	65	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 2.06 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	2.62	71provisional	2.06	57%	48	018% 125% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Ollie WatkinsFWD	Aston Villa	2.52	73provisional	2.04	57%	69	017% 125% 223% 317% 49% 55% 6+3%
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	2.36	70provisional	1.84	52%	31	021% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	2.15	66provisional	1.58	44%	57	027% 129% 221% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	2.43	57provisional	1.53	43%	24	028% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	2.13	62provisional	1.46	41%	30	029% 130% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Martin ØdegaardMID	Arsenal	1.66	69provisional	1.26	35%	44	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Gabriel MartinelliFWD	Arsenal	2.01	54provisional	1.20	33%	45	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Declan RiceMID	Arsenal	1.15	84provisional	1.07	29%	69	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Leon BaileyFWD	Aston Villa	2.14	43provisional	1.03	27%	23	041% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Noni MaduekeFWD	Arsenal	1.95	47provisional	1.01	27%	19	042% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Gabriel JesusFWD	Arsenal	2.65	33provisional	0.97	24%	10	049% 127% 212% 36% 43% 52% 6+1%
Emiliano BuendíaFWD	Aston Villa	2.20	39provisional	0.95	25%	23	048% 128% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mikel MerinoMID	Arsenal	1.59	52provisional	0.93	24%	31	047% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Evann GuessandFWD	Aston Villa	1.79	45provisional	0.90	23%	8	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	1.11	69provisional	0.85	21%	55	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Donyell MalenFWD	Aston Villa	2.81	27provisional	0.84	20%	10	051% 129% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Ethan NwaneriMID	Arsenal	2.26	33provisional	0.83	21%	14	051% 128% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	1.14	60provisional	0.76	19%	37	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Tammy AbrahamFWD	Aston Villa	2.55	23provisional	0.66	15%	3	060% 125% 28% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
GabrielDEF	Arsenal	0.69	85provisional	0.65	14%	58	053% 133% 211% 33% 4+1%
Jadon SanchoFWD	Aston Villa	1.53	38provisional	0.65	15%	11	057% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	0.86	67provisional	0.64	14%	43	055% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Martín ZubimendiMID	Arsenal	0.72	79provisional	0.63	14%	36	054% 132% 211% 32% 4+1%
Ross BarkleyMID	Aston Villa	1.61	35provisional	0.63	14%	17	059% 127% 29% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	0.64	82provisional	0.59	12%	60	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	0.59	81provisional	0.54	11%	56	059% 130% 28% 32% 4+0%
Ian MaatsenDEF	Aston Villa	1.03	46provisional	0.53	12%	33	063% 125% 28% 33% 41% 5+0%
Tyrone MingsDEF	Aston Villa	0.57	79provisional	0.50	9%	29	062% 129% 28% 31% 4+0%
Ben WhiteDEF	Arsenal	0.57	66provisional	0.42	7%	23	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	0.51	72provisional	0.41	7%	35	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Lucas DigneDEF	Aston Villa	0.51	67provisional	0.38	6%	51	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Pau TorresDEF	Aston Villa	0.36	82provisional	0.33	5%	41	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Ezri KonsaDEF	Aston Villa	0.32	88provisional	0.31	4%	67	074% 122% 24% 3+0%
Victor LindelöfDEF	Aston Villa	0.40	56provisional	0.25	4%	11	079% 117% 23% 3+0%
Piero HincapiéDEF	Arsenal	0.27	72provisional	0.21	2%	20	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEF	Arsenal	0.36	48provisional	0.19	2%	25	083% 114% 22% 3+0%
William SalibaDEF	Arsenal	0.20	86provisional	0.19	2%	65	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Lamare BogardeMID	Aston Villa	0.35	42provisional	0.16	2%	19	086% 113% 22% 3+0%
Cristhian MosqueraDEF	Arsenal	0.29	49provisional	0.16	1%	14	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
David RayaGK	Arsenal	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	75	0100% 1+0%
Emiliano MartínezGK	Aston Villa	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	69	0100% 1+0%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won42 playersHighest: John McGinn, 1.71 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	2.25	69provisional	1.71	49%	55	022% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	2.00	71provisional	1.57	45%	48	025% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	1.68	72provisional	1.33	38%	35	031% 131% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEF	Arsenal	2.35	48provisional	1.26	33%	25	039% 127% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	1.63	66provisional	1.20	33%	57	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ezri KonsaDEF	Aston Villa	1.21	88provisional	1.18	33%	67	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	1.70	57provisional	1.07	29%	24	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	1.37	67provisional	1.02	27%	43	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emiliano BuendíaFWD	Aston Villa	2.19	39provisional	0.94	25%	23	048% 128% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ollie WatkinsFWD	Aston Villa	1.08	73provisional	0.88	22%	69	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Cards42 playersHighest: Jurriën Timber, 0.22 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	0.25	81provisional	0.22	20%	56	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	0.25	82provisional	0.22	20%	60	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	0.33	60provisional	0.22	20%	37	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Cristhian MosqueraDEF	Arsenal	0.40	49provisional	0.22	19%	14	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	0.24	72provisional	0.19	17%	35	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	0.25	69provisional	0.19	17%	55	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Piero HincapiéDEF	Arsenal	0.23	72provisional	0.19	17%	20	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
GabrielDEF	Arsenal	0.19	85provisional	0.18	16%	58	084% 115% 2+1%
Martín ZubimendiMID	Arsenal	0.20	79provisional	0.17	16%	36	084% 114% 2+1%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	0.23	67provisional	0.17	16%	43	084% 114% 2+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Emiliano Martínez, 2.57 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Emiliano MartínezGK	Aston Villa	2.65	87provisional	2.57	46%	69	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
David RayaGK	Arsenal	2.49	90provisional	2.49	44%	75	010% 121% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.