Premier League · England

Aston VillavArsenal

Monday 31 August at 20:00Villa Parklineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls40 playersHighest: Kai Havertz, 1.33 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	1.70	70provisional	1.33	38%	31	030% 132% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mikel Merino ZazónMID	Arsenal	2.26	52provisional	1.32	36%	31	036% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	1.28	81provisional	1.16	32%	56	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	1.48	69provisional	1.13	31%	55	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	1.60	62provisional	1.10	30%	30	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	1.54	60provisional	1.03	28%	37	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	1.28	72provisional	1.01	28%	35	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	1.10	82provisional	1.01	27%	60	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom OnanaMID	Aston Villa	1.33	67provisional	0.99	26%	43	040% 134% 217% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Martín Zubimendi IbáñezMID	Arsenal	1.12	79provisional	0.98	26%	36	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Tackles40 playersHighest: Jurriën Timber, 2.11 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	2.34	81provisional	2.11	58%	56	017% 125% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom OnanaMID	Aston Villa	2.76	67provisional	2.05	55%	43	020% 125% 221% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	2.49	72provisional	1.98	54%	35	022% 124% 221% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Martín Zubimendi IbáñezMID	Arsenal	2.21	79provisional	1.94	54%	36	019% 127% 223% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	2.12	82provisional	1.94	55%	60	018% 127% 224% 316% 48% 54% 6+3%
Declan RiceMID	Arsenal	2.02	84provisional	1.88	53%	69	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Piero Martín Hincapié ReynaDEF	Arsenal	2.31	72provisional	1.84	50%	20	025% 125% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Lucas DigneDEF	Aston Villa	2.23	67provisional	1.66	46%	51	027% 127% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Mikel Merino ZazónMID	Arsenal	2.84	52provisional	1.65	43%	31	032% 126% 217% 311% 47% 54% 6+4%
William SalibaDEF	Arsenal	1.63	86provisional	1.55	44%	65	024% 132% 223% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Shots40 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 1.99 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	2.53	71provisional	1.99	56%	48	018% 126% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Ollie WatkinsFWD	Aston Villa	2.44	73provisional	1.97	56%	69	018% 126% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	2.28	70provisional	1.78	50%	31	022% 128% 223% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	2.13	63provisional	1.49	41%	14	031% 128% 219% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	2.34	57provisional	1.48	41%	24	029% 129% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	2.05	62provisional	1.41	40%	30	030% 130% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Martin ØdegaardMID	Arsenal	1.60	69provisional	1.22	34%	44	034% 132% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli SilvaFWD	Arsenal	1.94	54provisional	1.16	31%	45	038% 130% 217% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Declan RiceMID	Arsenal	1.11	84provisional	1.04	28%	69	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Leon Bailey ButlerFWD	Aston Villa	2.08	43provisional	1.00	26%	23	042% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Fouls won40 playersHighest: John McGinn, 1.69 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	2.21	69provisional	1.69	48%	55	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	1.97	71provisional	1.55	44%	48	026% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	1.65	72provisional	1.31	37%	35	032% 131% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEF	Arsenal	2.31	48provisional	1.24	33%	25	040% 128% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	1.67	63provisional	1.17	32%	14	038% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ezri Konsa NgoyoDEF	Aston Villa	1.19	88provisional	1.16	32%	67	032% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	1.67	57provisional	1.05	28%	24	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom OnanaMID	Aston Villa	1.35	67provisional	1.01	27%	43	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emiliano BuendíaFWD	Aston Villa	2.16	39provisional	0.93	24%	23	048% 128% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ollie WatkinsFWD	Aston Villa	1.07	73provisional	0.86	22%	69	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Cards40 playersHighest: Matty Cash, 0.22 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	0.24	82provisional	0.22	20%	60	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	0.24	81provisional	0.22	20%	56	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	0.33	60provisional	0.22	19%	37	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Cristhian Andrey Mosquera IbarguenDEF	Arsenal	0.39	49provisional	0.22	19%	14	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	0.24	72provisional	0.19	17%	35	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	0.25	69provisional	0.19	17%	55	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Piero Martín Hincapié ReynaDEF	Arsenal	0.23	72provisional	0.18	17%	20	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Gabriel dos Santos MagalhãesDEF	Arsenal	0.18	85provisional	0.17	16%	58	084% 114% 2+1%
Martín Zubimendi IbáñezMID	Arsenal	0.19	79provisional	0.17	16%	36	084% 114% 2+1%
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom OnanaMID	Aston Villa	0.23	67provisional	0.17	15%	43	085% 114% 2+1%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Damián Emiliano Martínez, 2.58 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Damián Emiliano MartínezGK	Aston Villa	2.66	87provisional	2.58	46%	69	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
David Raya MartinGK	Arsenal	2.49	90provisional	2.49	44%	75	010% 121% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.