Premier League · England

Aston VillavArsenal

Monday 31 August at 20:00Villa Parklineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1947 · Tackles v20260815-1947 · Shots v20260815-1947 · Fouls won v20260815-1947 · Cards v20260815-1947 · Saves v20260815-1947

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Kai Havertz, 1.18 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	1.68	63provisional	1.18	33%	31	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	1.27	83provisional	1.18	33%	56	032% 135% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	1.45	66provisional	1.06	29%	37	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	1.24	76provisional	1.04	28%	35	037% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Mikel MerinoMID	Arsenal	2.36	39provisional	1.02	27%	31	041% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	1.51	61provisional	1.02	27%	55	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emiliano BuendíaFWD	Aston Villa	1.78	51provisional	1.00	27%	23	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	1.14	75provisional	0.95	25%	48	040% 136% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Cristhian MosqueraDEF	Arsenal	1.42	60provisional	0.94	25%	14	041% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	1.13	74provisional	0.93	24%	60	041% 135% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Jurriën Timber, 1.22 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	1.32	83provisional	1.22	34%	56	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	1.59	60provisional	1.06	28%	43	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ben WhiteDEF	Arsenal	1.25	72provisional	0.99	26%	23	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	1.33	66provisional	0.97	26%	37	041% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Cristhian MosqueraDEF	Arsenal	1.46	60provisional	0.97	25%	14	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Martín ZubimendiMID	Arsenal	1.23	71provisional	0.96	25%	36	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	1.11	76provisional	0.93	24%	35	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	1.12	74provisional	0.92	24%	60	043% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lucas DigneDEF	Aston Villa	1.34	60provisional	0.90	23%	51	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Declan RiceMID	Arsenal	0.94	85provisional	0.89	22%	69	043% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 2.19 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	2.63	75provisional	2.19	61%	48	014% 124% 224% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%
Ollie WatkinsFWD	Aston Villa	2.48	76provisional	2.10	59%	69	015% 125% 225% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	2.43	63provisional	1.71	48%	31	024% 129% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	2.12	73provisional	1.71	49%	57	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	2.42	54provisional	1.44	40%	24	029% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Emiliano BuendíaFWD	Aston Villa	2.11	51provisional	1.18	33%	23	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	2.26	47provisional	1.18	32%	30	036% 132% 218% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Martin ØdegaardMID	Arsenal	1.68	62provisional	1.16	32%	44	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Gabriel MartinelliFWD	Arsenal	2.01	52provisional	1.16	32%	45	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Declan RiceMID	Arsenal	1.16	85provisional	1.09	30%	69	035% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 1.62 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	1.95	75provisional	1.62	47%	48	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	2.21	61provisional	1.49	42%	55	028% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	1.61	76provisional	1.36	39%	35	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	1.55	73provisional	1.25	35%	57	032% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEF	Arsenal	2.24	49provisional	1.22	33%	25	038% 129% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ezri KonsaDEF	Aston Villa	1.19	88provisional	1.16	32%	67	032% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Emiliano BuendíaFWD	Aston Villa	2.00	51provisional	1.13	31%	23	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	1.65	54provisional	0.99	26%	24	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	1.36	60provisional	0.91	23%	43	044% 133% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ollie WatkinsFWD	Aston Villa	1.07	76provisional	0.90	23%	69	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Cards42 playersHighest: Cristhian Mosquera, 0.23 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Cristhian MosqueraDEF	Arsenal	0.35	60provisional	0.23	21%	14	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Riccardo CalafioriDEF	Arsenal	0.32	66provisional	0.23	21%	37	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	0.24	83provisional	0.22	20%	56	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Matty CashDEF	Aston Villa	0.25	74provisional	0.21	19%	60	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Boubacar KamaraMID	Aston Villa	0.23	76provisional	0.19	17%	35	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
John McGinnMID	Aston Villa	0.25	61provisional	0.17	15%	55	085% 114% 2+1%
Gabriel JesusFWD	Arsenal	0.36	38provisional	0.15	14%	10	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	0.21	63provisional	0.15	14%	31	086% 113% 2+1%
GabrielDEF	Arsenal	0.18	75provisional	0.15	14%	58	086% 113% 2+1%
Piero HincapiéDEF	Arsenal	0.21	63provisional	0.15	14%	20	086% 113% 2+1%
Declan RiceMID	Arsenal	0.16	85provisional	0.15	14%	69	086% 113% 2+1%
Lamare BogardeMID	Aston Villa	0.30	44provisional	0.15	13%	19	087% 112% 2+1%
Emiliano BuendíaFWD	Aston Villa	0.26	51provisional	0.15	13%	23	087% 112% 2+1%
Amadou OnanaMID	Aston Villa	0.22	60provisional	0.15	13%	43	087% 112% 2+1%
Martín ZubimendiMID	Arsenal	0.19	71provisional	0.15	13%	36	087% 112% 2+1%
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	0.17	75provisional	0.14	13%	48	087% 112% 2+1%
William SalibaDEF	Arsenal	0.14	86provisional	0.14	13%	65	087% 112% 2+1%
Ben WhiteDEF	Arsenal	0.17	72provisional	0.13	12%	23	088% 111% 2+1%
Ross BarkleyMID	Aston Villa	0.26	41provisional	0.12	11%	17	089% 110% 2+1%
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEF	Arsenal	0.22	49provisional	0.12	11%	25	089% 110% 2+1%
Tyrone MingsDEF	Aston Villa	0.13	81provisional	0.11	11%	29	089% 110% 2+1%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	0.22	47provisional	0.11	11%	30	089% 110% 2+1%
Mikel MerinoMID	Arsenal	0.25	39provisional	0.11	10%	31	090% 19% 2+1%
Leon BaileyFWD	Aston Villa	0.22	44provisional	0.11	10%	23	090% 19% 2+1%
Emiliano MartínezGK	Aston Villa	0.10	87provisional	0.10	10%	69	090% 19% 2+0%
Lucas DigneDEF	Aston Villa	0.15	60provisional	0.10	9%	51	091% 19% 2+1%
Martin ØdegaardMID	Arsenal	0.13	62provisional	0.09	9%	44	091% 18% 2+0%
Ollie WatkinsFWD	Aston Villa	0.11	76provisional	0.09	9%	69	091% 18% 2+0%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	0.15	54provisional	0.09	8%	24	092% 18% 2+0%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	0.10	73provisional	0.08	8%	57	092% 18% 2+0%
Pau TorresDEF	Aston Villa	0.10	72provisional	0.08	8%	41	092% 18% 2+0%
Noni MaduekeFWD	Arsenal	0.16	45provisional	0.08	8%	19	092% 17% 2+0%
Ian MaatsenDEF	Aston Villa	0.15	47provisional	0.08	7%	33	093% 17% 2+0%
Evann GuessandFWD	Aston Villa	0.18	37provisional	0.08	7%	8	093% 17% 2+0%
Victor LindelöfDEF	Aston Villa	0.10	67provisional	0.08	7%	11	093% 17% 2+0%
Ezri KonsaDEF	Aston Villa	0.07	88provisional	0.07	7%	67	093% 16% 2+0%
David RayaGK	Arsenal	0.06	90provisional	0.06	6%	75	094% 16% 2+0%
Ethan NwaneriMID	Arsenal	0.20	26provisional	0.06	6%	14	094% 15% 2+0%
Gabriel MartinelliFWD	Arsenal	0.10	52provisional	0.06	5%	45	095% 15% 2+0%
Tammy AbrahamFWD	Aston Villa	0.15	31provisional	0.05	5%	3	095% 15% 2+0%
Jadon SanchoFWD	Aston Villa	0.07	40provisional	0.03	3%	11	097% 1+3%
Donyell MalenFWD	Aston Villa	0.11	23provisional	0.03	3%	10	097% 1+3%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves2 playersHighest: Emiliano Martínez, 2.69 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Emiliano MartínezGK	Aston Villa	2.77	87provisional	2.69	49%	69	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
David RayaGK	Arsenal	2.64	90provisional	2.64	48%	75	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.