Serie A · Italy

VeneziavLecce

Sunday 23 August at 17:30Stadio Pierluigi Penzoexpected lineup

Referee

Andrea Rapuano

6 matches on record — under 15, so the model falls back toward the league mean

Fouls per game

25.5

+10% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formLassana Coulibaly over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 13/20 · 4/5 away · strip 2 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 3 · market 68% · best 1.70 (Betano) · bet365 1.53
opponentLecce concede 19.1 tackles a game — 1st most of 23 in Serie A
Over their last 10. Good news for Venezia's tacklers.
opponentVenezia concede 15.4 shots a game — 1st most of 23 in Serie A
Over their last 10. Good news for Lecce's shooters.
opponentVenezia concede 13.9 fouls a game — 3rd most of 23 in Serie A
Over their last 10. Good news for Lecce's foul-drawers.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 4 live calls

Lassana Coulibalyover 2.50 Tackles3.40 at bet365 · fair 2.10+61.9%
Danilo Veigaover 2.50 Tackles2.00 at bet365 · fair 1.47+36.1%
Santiago Pierottiover 2.50 Tackles2.00 at bet365 · fair 1.57+27.4%
Santiago Pierottiover 1.50 Fouls1.40 at bet365 · fair 1.25+12.0%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls31 playersHighest: Santiago Pierotti, 1.62 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	2.00	68provisional	1.62	47%	73	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Youssef MalehMID	Lecce	1.84	73provisional	1.57	46%	45	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Danilo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.42	75provisional	1.23	35%	49	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	1.70	58provisional	1.23	35%	47	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.34	78provisional	1.21	34%	71	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lamine FanneMID	—	1.89	49provisional	1.19	33%	12	035% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	1.36	65provisional	1.06	29%	15	037% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Akor AdamsFWD	—	1.49	57provisional	1.04	28%	36	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	1.15	78provisional	1.04	28%	66	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	1.09	82provisional	1.01	27%	21	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 31 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 31 →

Shots31 playersHighest: Akor Adams, 1.79 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Akor AdamsFWD	—	2.65	57provisional	1.79	48%	36	024% 127% 220% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	2.11	61provisional	1.54	44%	30	025% 131% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.00	58provisional	1.39	39%	47	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Toma BašićMID	—	1.49	76provisional	1.31	37%	23	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	1.24	68provisional	0.99	26%	73	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Youssef MalehMID	Lecce	1.15	73provisional	0.97	26%	45	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Nikola StulicFWD	Lecce	1.86	39provisional	0.93	24%	34	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	0.94	78provisional	0.84	21%	66	045% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Konan N’DriFWD	Lecce	2.66	21provisional	0.83	20%	38	045% 134% 214% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	0.89	78provisional	0.79	19%	71	046% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 31 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 31 →

Shots on target29 playersHighest: Akor Adams, 0.65 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Akor AdamsFWD	—	0.97	57provisional	0.65	45%	36	055% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	0.73	58provisional	0.51	39%	47	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	0.54	61provisional	0.40	32%	30	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Toma BašićMID	—	0.44	76provisional	0.38	32%	23	068% 126% 25% 3+1%
Nikola StulicFWD	Lecce	0.60	39provisional	0.30	25%	34	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	0.35	68provisional	0.28	24%	73	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Konan N’DriFWD	Lecce	0.84	21provisional	0.26	23%	38	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Youssef MalehMID	Lecce	0.31	73provisional	0.26	23%	45	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	0.26	78provisional	0.23	21%	71	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Lamine FanneMID	—	0.38	49provisional	0.23	20%	12	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Omri GandelmanMID	Lecce	0.43	40provisional	0.22	19%	19	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	0.24	78provisional	0.22	19%	66	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Thórir Jóhann HelgasonMID	Lecce	0.44	35provisional	0.20	18%	29	082% 115% 22% 3+0%
Simon SohmMID	—	0.27	60provisional	0.19	17%	65	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Mohamed KabaMID	Lecce	0.33	41provisional	0.17	15%	30	085% 114% 22% 3+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	0.21	65provisional	0.16	14%	15	086% 113% 2+1%
Ridgeciano HapsDEF	Venezia	0.22	53provisional	0.14	13%	25	087% 112% 2+1%
Tiago GabrielDEF	Lecce	0.14	85provisional	0.13	12%	39	088% 111% 2+1%
Matías MorenoDEF	—	0.14	78provisional	0.12	12%	32	088% 111% 2+1%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	0.12	82provisional	0.11	10%	21	090% 110% 2+1%
Corrie NdabaDEF	Lecce	0.17	43provisional	0.09	9%	14	091% 18% 2+1%
Thierry CorreiaDEF	—	0.16	45provisional	0.09	8%	35	092% 18% 2+0%
GasparDEF	Lecce	0.10	71provisional	0.08	8%	47	092% 17% 2+0%
Antonino GalloDEF	Lecce	0.08	84provisional	0.08	8%	68	092% 17% 2+0%
Armel Bella-KotchapDEF	—	0.10	65provisional	0.08	7%	23	093% 17% 2+0%
Danilo VeigaDEF	Lecce	0.08	75provisional	0.07	7%	49	093% 17% 2+0%
Giorgio AltareDEF	Venezia	0.09	68provisional	0.07	7%	12	093% 17% 2+0%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	0.13	41provisional	0.07	6%	33	094% 16% 2+0%
Gaby JeanDEF	Lecce	0.06	43provisional	0.03	3%	26	097% 1+3%

All 29 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won31 playersHighest: Lameck Banda, 1.59 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.31	58provisional	1.59	45%	47	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.69	78provisional	1.50	43%	71	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	1.43	78provisional	1.27	36%	66	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mohamed KabaMID	Lecce	2.45	41provisional	1.25	33%	30	035% 132% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Danilo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.45	75provisional	1.23	35%	49	032% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Youssef MalehMID	Lecce	1.24	73provisional	1.04	28%	45	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tiago GabrielDEF	Lecce	1.04	85provisional	0.99	26%	39	038% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Lamine FanneMID	—	1.47	49provisional	0.86	22%	12	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Toma BašićMID	—	0.99	76provisional	0.86	21%	23	043% 136% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	1.18	61provisional	0.85	21%	30	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 31 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 31 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Wladimiro Falcone, 3.16 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Wladimiro FalconeGK	Lecce	3.18	89provisional	3.16	58%	76	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Lorenzo MontipòGK	—	2.16	89provisional	2.15	36%	71	014% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.