Serie A · Italy

VeneziavLecce

Sunday 23 August at 17:30Stadio Pierluigi Penzolineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls44 playersHighest: Santiago Pierotti, 1.67 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	2.39	63provisional	1.67	48%	59	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	1.74	84provisional	1.64	48%	17	022% 130% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Kike PérezMID	Venezia	2.09	70provisional	1.62	47%	13	024% 129% 223% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	1.50	82provisional	1.37	40%	33	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jay IdzesDEF	Venezia	1.36	89provisional	1.35	39%	35	026% 135% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Gaetano OristanioMID	Venezianow at Torino	1.89	63provisional	1.32	38%	32	029% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Venezia	1.30	90provisional	1.30	37%	17	028% 135% 223% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.27	50provisional	1.27	35%	36	032% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Alfred DuncanMID	Venezia	1.89	60provisional	1.26	36%	12	036% 128% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	2.06	53provisional	1.22	34%	25	035% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Nikola StulicFWD	Lecce	2.15	50provisional	1.20	33%	24	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.39	76provisional	1.17	33%	67	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Daniel FilaFWD	Venezia	2.08	50provisional	1.14	31%	7	037% 131% 218% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	1.24	81provisional	1.12	31%	19	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Danilo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.44	69provisional	1.11	31%	39	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	1.65	56provisional	1.03	28%	13	041% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Francesco ZampanoMID	Venezia	1.35	68provisional	1.02	28%	19	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Antonio CandelaDEF	Venezia	1.27	72provisional	1.02	27%	13	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	1.19	76provisional	1.01	27%	61	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	1.64	54provisional	0.98	26%	21	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gianluca BusioMID	Venezia	1.07	77provisional	0.91	23%	31	042% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Omri GandelmanMID	Lecce	1.56	51provisional	0.89	23%	15	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Tiago GabrielDEF	Lecce	0.92	85provisional	0.87	22%	37	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Giorgio AltareDEF	Venezia	1.21	63provisional	0.84	21%	9	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Joel PohjanpaloFWD	Venezia	0.92	81provisional	0.83	20%	19	045% 135% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Mohamed KabaMID	Lecce	2.03	36provisional	0.81	20%	16	050% 131% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gaby JeanDEF	Lecce	1.18	61provisional	0.80	20%	17	050% 130% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Issa DoumbiaMID	Venezia	1.79	39provisional	0.78	20%	11	052% 128% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID	Venezia	0.97	69provisional	0.74	18%	30	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Magnus Kofod AndersenMID	Venezia	1.31	49provisional	0.72	18%	7	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Marin ŠverkoDEF	Venezia	0.93	70provisional	0.72	17%	13	051% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Michael SvobodaDEF	Venezianow at Brighton & Hove Albion	0.75	82provisional	0.68	15%	15	051% 133% 212% 33% 4+1%
Joël SchingtienneDEF	Venezia	0.85	70provisional	0.67	15%	14	053% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Ridgeciano HapsDEF	Venezia	1.05	55provisional	0.64	15%	17	056% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
GasparDEF	Lecce	0.64	85provisional	0.60	12%	44	055% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Mirko MaricFWD	Venezia	1.44	35provisional	0.56	13%	5	062% 125% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Christian GytkjaerFWD	Venezia	1.71	26provisional	0.50	11%	7	065% 124% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Konan N’DriFWD	Lecce	1.95	22provisional	0.47	8%	12	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
John YeboahFWD	Venezia	1.12	37provisional	0.46	9%	12	066% 125% 27% 32% 4+0%
Corrie NdabaDEF	Lecce	0.96	39provisional	0.41	8%	7	069% 123% 26% 32% 4+0%
Antonino GalloDEF	Lecce	0.42	84provisional	0.39	6%	66	068% 126% 25% 3+1%
Wladimiro FalconeGK	Lecce	0.02	90provisional	0.02	—	76	098% 1+2%
Ionuț RaduGK	Venezianow at Celta de Vigo	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	15	099% 1+1%
Filip StankovićGK	Venezia	0.01	86provisional	0.01	—	15	099% 1+1%

All 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥ 5 of the 44 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

Tackles44 playersHighest: Ylber Ramadani, 2.25 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	2.66	76provisional	2.25	61%	61	016% 123% 222% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	2.39	84provisional	2.24	61%	17	016% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Danilo VeigaDEF	Lecce	2.86	69provisional	2.19	56%	39	021% 123% 219% 315% 410% 56% 6+6%
Kike PérezMID	Venezia	2.72	70provisional	2.11	57%	13	019% 124% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+5%
Antonino GalloDEF	Lecce	2.01	84provisional	1.87	53%	66	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Antonio CandelaDEF	Venezia	2.27	72provisional	1.82	51%	13	022% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	2.62	63provisional	1.82	50%	59	023% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Tiago GabrielDEF	Lecce	1.80	85provisional	1.70	48%	37	022% 130% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	2.68	56provisional	1.68	45%	13	028% 126% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	2.77	53provisional	1.63	44%	25	028% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%

10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 → 5 of the 44 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

Shots44 playersHighest: Joel Pohjanpalo, 2.34 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Joel PohjanpaloFWD	Venezia	2.61	81provisional	2.34	65%	19	013% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	1.68	82provisional	1.53	44%	33	024% 132% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gaetano OristanioMID	Venezianow at Torino	2.02	63provisional	1.42	40%	32	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Daniel FilaFWD	Venezia	2.52	50provisional	1.38	38%	7	032% 130% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	2.13	54provisional	1.27	35%	21	033% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
John YeboahFWD	Venezia	3.04	37provisional	1.25	32%	12	038% 130% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+2%
Gianluca BusioMID	Venezia	1.45	77provisional	1.23	35%	31	032% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.20	50provisional	1.23	34%	36	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Mirko MaricFWD	Venezia	3.01	35provisional	1.19	31%	5	043% 127% 214% 38% 45% 52% 6+2%
Nikola StulicFWD	Lecce	1.90	50provisional	1.07	29%	24	040% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

Fouls won44 playersHighest: Gaetano Oristanio, 1.99 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Gaetano OristanioMID	Venezianow at Torino	2.85	63provisional	1.99	56%	32	018% 126% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	1.78	84provisional	1.67	49%	17	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.84	50provisional	1.59	44%	36	026% 130% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.67	76provisional	1.40	40%	67	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gianluca BusioMID	Venezia	1.62	77provisional	1.38	39%	31	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID	Venezia	1.63	69provisional	1.25	35%	30	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kike PérezMID	Venezia	1.45	70provisional	1.13	31%	13	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Danilo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.44	69provisional	1.11	30%	39	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Venezia	1.10	90provisional	1.10	30%	17	034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	1.21	82provisional	1.10	30%	33	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

Cards44 playersHighest: Kike Pérez, 0.21 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Kike PérezMID	Venezia	0.28	70provisional	0.21	19%	13	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	0.23	84provisional	0.21	19%	17	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Venezia	0.21	90provisional	0.21	19%	17	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Danilo VeigaDEF	Lecce	0.25	69provisional	0.19	17%	39	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Jay IdzesDEF	Venezia	0.18	89provisional	0.18	17%	35	083% 115% 2+1%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	0.19	82provisional	0.18	16%	33	084% 115% 2+1%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	0.20	76provisional	0.17	16%	61	084% 114% 2+1%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	0.30	50provisional	0.17	15%	36	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	0.19	81provisional	0.17	15%	19	085% 114% 2+1%
Tiago GabrielDEF	Lecce	0.16	85provisional	0.15	14%	37	086% 113% 2+1%

Saves3 playersHighest: Wladimiro Falcone, 3.18 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Wladimiro FalconeGK	Lecce	3.18	90provisional	3.18	59%	76	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+12%
Filip StankovićGK	Venezia	2.71	86provisional	2.58	46%	15	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Ionuț RaduGK	Venezianow at Celta de Vigo	2.44	90provisional	2.44	43%	15	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

1 of the 3 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.