Championship · England

Swansea CityvWatford

Tuesday 1 September at 19:45Swansea.com Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Shots on target v20260813-1536-sot · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls44 playersHighest: Imran Louza, 1.65 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.65
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
1.77
021%
130%
225%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Gonçalo Baptista Franco
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.62
027%
133%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.56
030%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Marko Stamenic
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.71
030%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
2.06
038%
130%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.27
041%
131%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.53
042%
129%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.76
041%
132%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.46
041%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Matthew Pollock
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.02
040%
135%
217%
36%
42%
5+0%
Ryan Andrews
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.63
046%
129%
215%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.19
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
5+1%
Zeidane Inoussa
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.90
044%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.23
043%
134%
216%
36%
42%
5+0%
Jeremy Ngakia
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.12
042%
135%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.20
043%
134%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Ronald Pereira Martins
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.00
044%
135%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Jay Fulton
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.77
051%
128%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
2.61
053%
128%
211%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.97
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.77	84provisional	1.65	48%	72	021% 130% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Gonçalo Baptista FrancoMID	Swansea City	1.62	76provisional	1.36	39%	81	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.56	77provisional	1.32	38%	23	030% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Marko StamenicMID	Swansea City	1.71	69provisional	1.32	38%	32	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	2.06	51provisional	1.17	32%	34	038% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	2.27	42provisional	1.07	28%	29	041% 131% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	1.53	61provisional	1.03	29%	43	042% 129% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	1.76	51provisional	0.99	26%	26	041% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	1.46	61provisional	0.99	27%	19	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Matthew PollockDEF	Watford	1.02	84provisional	0.95	25%	77	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Ryan AndrewsDEF	Watford	1.63	52provisional	0.93	25%	25	046% 129% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	1.19	70provisional	0.93	25%	67	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 5+1%
Zeidane InoussaFWD	Swansea City	1.90	43provisional	0.92	24%	15	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	1.23	67provisional	0.91	24%	36	043% 134% 216% 36% 42% 5+0%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	1.12	73provisional	0.90	23%	56	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.20	66provisional	0.88	22%	20	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ronald Pereira MartinsFWD	Swansea City	1.00	76provisional	0.84	21%	87	044% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Jay FultonMID	Swansea City	1.77	42provisional	0.82	21%	32	051% 128% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD	Watford	2.61	27provisional	0.80	19%	8	053% 128% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	0.97	74provisional	0.79	20%	25	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles44 playersHighest: Jeremy Ngakia, 3.01 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Jeremy Ngakia
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
3.01
O 1.5
73%
Model /90
3.73
010%
117%
219%
317%
413%
59%
6+13%
Gonçalo Baptista Franco
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
2.87
O 1.5
72%
Model /90
3.42
010%
118%
221%
318%
414%
59%
6+11%
Benjamin Cabango
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
1.76
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
1.77
020%
129%
224%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.65
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
1.78
023%
130%
223%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Ronald Pereira Martins
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.62
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.93
024%
130%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.54
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
2.11
027%
130%
222%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.23
030%
128%
219%
312%
46%
53%
6+2%
Marko Stamenic
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.90
029%
130%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.56
031%
131%
220%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Josh Key
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.60
033%
131%
220%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Pierre Dwomoh
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.19
041%
125%
216%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Jérémy Pétris
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.14
037%
129%
218%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Josh Tymon
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.24
033%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
James Morris
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.86
044%
125%
216%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Ji-Sung Eom
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.74
038%
131%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.68
041%
128%
217%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.29
039%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sam Parker
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.97
047%
126%
213%
37%
44%
52%
6+1%
Cameron Burgess
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.05
037%
135%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Marc Bola
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.18
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	3.73	73provisional	3.01	73%	56	010% 117% 219% 317% 413% 59% 6+13%
Gonçalo Baptista FrancoMID	Swansea City	3.42	76provisional	2.87	72%	81	010% 118% 221% 318% 414% 59% 6+11%
Benjamin CabangoDEF	Swansea City	1.77	90provisional	1.76	50%	90	020% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.78	84provisional	1.65	47%	72	023% 130% 223% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Ronald Pereira MartinsFWD	Swansea City	1.93	76provisional	1.62	46%	87	024% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	2.11	66provisional	1.54	43%	20	027% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	2.23	61provisional	1.52	42%	19	030% 128% 219% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Marko StamenicMID	Swansea City	1.90	69provisional	1.47	41%	32	029% 130% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.56	77provisional	1.33	37%	23	031% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Josh KeyDEF	Swansea City	1.60	73provisional	1.31	37%	66	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	2.19	53provisional	1.29	35%	6	041% 125% 216% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Jérémy PétrisDEF	Watford	2.14	53provisional	1.25	34%	11	037% 129% 218% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Josh TymonDEF	Swansea City	1.24	88provisional	1.21	34%	89	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
James MorrisDEF	Watford	1.86	55provisional	1.14	31%	13	044% 125% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ji-Sung EomFWD	Swansea City	1.74	59provisional	1.14	31%	65	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	1.68	61provisional	1.13	31%	43	041% 128% 217% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.29	74provisional	1.06	29%	25	039% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sam ParkerDEF	Swansea City	2.97	32provisional	1.06	27%	4	047% 126% 213% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Cameron BurgessDEF	Swansea City	1.05	90provisional	1.05	28%	46	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Marc BolaDEF	Watford	1.18	78provisional	1.03	28%	32	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots44 playersHighest: Žan Vipotnik, 1.83 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Žan Vipotnik
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.83
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
2.80
024%
126%
221%
314%
48%
54%
6+3%
Ji-Sung Eom
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.55
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.36
027%
129%
221%
312%
46%
53%
6+1%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.54
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.12
025%
130%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.99
028%
130%
222%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.60
030%
130%
220%
311%
46%
52%
6+1%
Liam Cullen
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.44
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.23
031%
129%
219%
311%
46%
52%
6+1%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.46
028%
133%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Rocco Vata
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.56
036%
129%
217%
39%
45%
52%
6+1%
Ronald Pereira Martins
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.55
030%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.58
034%
131%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Zeidane Inoussa
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.17
040%
132%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.84
042%
130%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Gonçalo Baptista Franco
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.23
038%
135%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Adam Uche Idah
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
33
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
2.71
046%
129%
213%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Leo Walta
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.60
045%
132%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.89
047%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Thomas Ince
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
2.00
050%
128%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Melker Widell
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.87
049%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Marko Stamenic
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.05
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
2.61
053%
128%
211%
35%
42%
51%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Žan VipotnikFWD	Swansea City	2.80	59provisional	1.83	50%	65	024% 126% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Ji-Sung EomFWD	Swansea City	2.36	59provisional	1.55	44%	65	027% 129% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+1%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	2.12	66provisional	1.54	44%	20	025% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	1.99	67provisional	1.47	42%	36	028% 130% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	2.60	51provisional	1.47	40%	26	030% 130% 220% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Liam CullenMID	Swansea City	2.23	58provisional	1.44	40%	61	031% 129% 219% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.46	84provisional	1.35	39%	72	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	2.56	46provisional	1.31	35%	27	036% 129% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ronald Pereira MartinsFWD	Swansea City	1.55	76provisional	1.30	37%	87	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	1.58	70provisional	1.24	35%	67	034% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Zeidane InoussaFWD	Swansea City	2.17	43provisional	1.05	28%	15	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	1.84	51provisional	1.05	28%	34	042% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Gonçalo Baptista FrancoMID	Swansea City	1.23	76provisional	1.03	28%	81	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adam Uche IdahFWD	Swansea City	2.71	33provisional	1.00	24%	8	046% 129% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Leo WaltaMID	Swansea City	2.60	32provisional	0.91	23%	4	045% 132% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	1.89	42provisional	0.89	23%	29	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Thomas InceFWD	Watford	2.00	39provisional	0.87	22%	30	050% 128% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Melker WidellMID	Swansea City	1.87	41provisional	0.85	22%	22	049% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Marko StamenicMID	Swansea City	1.05	69provisional	0.81	20%	32	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD	Watford	2.61	27provisional	0.79	19%	8	053% 128% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target44 playersHighest: Žan Vipotnik, 0.74 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Žan Vipotnik
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.74
O 0.5
49%
Model /90
1.14
051%
131%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.72
O 0.5
49%
Model /90
0.97
051%
132%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.57
O 0.5
42%
Model /90
0.79
058%
130%
29%
32%
4+0%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.53
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
0.94
061%
128%
28%
32%
4+1%
Liam Cullen
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.53
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
0.82
061%
128%
28%
32%
4+0%
Adam Uche Idah
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
33
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
1.21
068%
123%
26%
32%
41%
5+0%
Ronald Pereira Martins
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.49
067%
126%
26%
31%
4+0%
Rocco Vata
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.78
069%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Ji-Sung Eom
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.61
068%
125%
26%
31%
4+0%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.42
068%
126%
25%
3+1%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
1.27
071%
121%
25%
31%
40%
5+0%
Zeidane Inoussa
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
0.38
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.79
070%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Leo Walta
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.35
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
1.00
072%
123%
25%
31%
4+0%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.72
073%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.59
073%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Thomas Ince
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.74
075%
120%
24%
31%
4+0%
Gonçalo Baptista Franco
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.38
073%
123%
24%
3+1%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.39
075%
121%
24%
3+1%
Marko Stamenic
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.36
076%
120%
23%
3+0%
Melker Widell
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.58
078%
118%
23%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Žan VipotnikFWD	Swansea City	1.14	59provisional	0.74	49%	65	051% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	0.97	67provisional	0.72	49%	36	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	0.79	66provisional	0.57	42%	20	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	0.94	51provisional	0.53	39%	26	061% 128% 28% 32% 4+1%
Liam CullenMID	Swansea City	0.82	58provisional	0.53	39%	61	061% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Adam Uche IdahFWD	Swansea City	1.21	33provisional	0.45	32%	8	068% 123% 26% 32% 41% 5+0%
Ronald Pereira MartinsFWD	Swansea City	0.49	76provisional	0.41	33%	87	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	0.78	46provisional	0.40	31%	27	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ji-Sung EomFWD	Swansea City	0.61	59provisional	0.40	32%	65	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	0.42	84provisional	0.39	32%	72	068% 126% 25% 3+1%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD	Watford	1.27	27provisional	0.39	29%	8	071% 121% 25% 31% 40% 5+0%
Zeidane InoussaFWD	Swansea City	0.79	43provisional	0.38	30%	15	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Leo WaltaMID	Swansea City	1.00	32provisional	0.35	28%	4	072% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	0.72	42provisional	0.34	27%	29	073% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	0.59	51provisional	0.34	27%	34	073% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Thomas InceFWD	Watford	0.74	39provisional	0.32	25%	30	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Gonçalo Baptista FrancoMID	Swansea City	0.38	76provisional	0.32	27%	81	073% 123% 24% 3+1%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.39	70provisional	0.30	25%	67	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Marko StamenicMID	Swansea City	0.36	69provisional	0.28	24%	32	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Melker WidellMID	Swansea City	0.58	41provisional	0.26	22%	22	078% 118% 23% 3+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won44 playersHighest: Ronald Pereira Martins, 2.24 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Ronald Pereira Martins
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
2.24
O 1.5
62%
Model /90
2.66
014%
124%
224%
318%
411%
56%
6+4%
Gonçalo Baptista Franco
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.75
026%
132%
223%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.56
032%
131%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Ji-Sung Eom
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.93
033%
131%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Jérémy Pétris
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.89
039%
130%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.30
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.95
039%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Zeidane Inoussa
FWD · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
2.24
039%
132%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Oliver Cooper
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.63
047%
126%
213%
37%
44%
52%
6+1%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.40
039%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.07
039%
135%
218%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Melker Widell
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.17
045%
130%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.85
048%
130%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Josh Key
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.96
048%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.14
050%
131%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Liam Cullen
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.16
051%
130%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Pierre Dwomoh
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.67
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.13
057%
126%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%
Marko Stamenic
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.65
O 1.5
14%
Model /90
0.84
054%
131%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Josh Tymon
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.60
O 1.5
12%
Model /90
0.61
056%
132%
210%
32%
4+0%
Rocco Vata
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.59
O 1.5
13%
Model /90
1.15
059%
128%
29%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ronald Pereira MartinsFWD	Swansea City	2.66	76provisional	2.24	62%	87	014% 124% 224% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Gonçalo Baptista FrancoMID	Swansea City	1.75	76provisional	1.47	42%	81	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.56	74provisional	1.28	37%	25	032% 131% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ji-Sung EomFWD	Swansea City	1.93	59provisional	1.26	35%	65	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jérémy PétrisDEF	Watford	1.89	53provisional	1.11	31%	11	039% 130% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.30	77provisional	1.10	30%	23	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	1.95	51provisional	1.10	30%	26	039% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Zeidane InoussaFWD	Swansea City	2.24	43provisional	1.08	29%	15	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oliver CooperMID	Swansea City	2.63	36provisional	1.06	27%	12	047% 126% 213% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.40	66provisional	1.02	27%	20	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.07	84provisional	0.99	26%	72	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Melker WidellMID	Swansea City	2.17	41provisional	0.98	26%	22	045% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	1.85	42provisional	0.87	22%	29	048% 130% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Josh KeyDEF	Swansea City	0.96	73provisional	0.78	19%	66	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	1.14	61provisional	0.77	19%	19	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Liam CullenMID	Swansea City	1.16	58provisional	0.75	18%	61	051% 130% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	1.13	53provisional	0.67	17%	6	057% 126% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Marko StamenicMID	Swansea City	0.84	69provisional	0.65	14%	32	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Josh TymonDEF	Swansea City	0.61	88provisional	0.60	12%	89	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	1.15	46provisional	0.59	13%	27	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards44 playersHighest: Imran Louza, 0.28 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.31
075%
121%
23%
3+0%
Marko Stamenic
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.30
079%
118%
22%
3+0%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.26
080%
117%
22%
3+0%
Matthew Pollock
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.20
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.31
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Jeremy Ngakia
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.19
086%
113%
2+1%
Gonçalo Baptista Franco
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.19
086%
113%
2+1%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.30
087%
112%
2+1%
Benjamin Cabango
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.14
087%
112%
2+1%
Jay Fulton
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.30
088%
111%
2+1%
Ryan Andrews
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.24
088%
111%
2+1%
Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.20
088%
111%
2+1%
Kévin Keben
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.18
089%
111%
2+1%
Jérémy Pétris
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.21
089%
110%
2+1%
Liam Cullen
MID · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.18
089%
110%
2+1%
Edoardo Bove
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
24
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.42
089%
110%
2+1%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.20
089%
110%
2+1%
James Morris
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.18
090%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	0.31	84provisional	0.28	25%	72	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Marko StamenicMID	Swansea City	0.30	69provisional	0.23	21%	32	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.26	77provisional	0.22	20%	23	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Matthew PollockDEF	Watford	0.20	84provisional	0.19	17%	77	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	0.31	51provisional	0.17	16%	26	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	0.19	73provisional	0.16	14%	56	086% 113% 2+1%
Gonçalo Baptista FrancoMID	Swansea City	0.18	76provisional	0.15	14%	81	086% 113% 2+1%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.19	70provisional	0.15	14%	67	086% 113% 2+1%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	0.30	42provisional	0.14	13%	29	087% 112% 2+1%
Benjamin CabangoDEF	Swansea City	0.14	90provisional	0.14	13%	90	087% 112% 2+1%
Jay FultonMID	Swansea City	0.30	42provisional	0.14	12%	32	088% 111% 2+1%
Ryan AndrewsDEF	Watford	0.24	52provisional	0.14	12%	25	088% 111% 2+1%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	0.20	61provisional	0.14	12%	43	088% 111% 2+1%
Kévin KebenDEF	Watford	0.17	68provisional	0.13	12%	28	088% 111% 2+1%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	0.18	61provisional	0.12	11%	19	089% 111% 2+1%
Jérémy PétrisDEF	Watford	0.21	53provisional	0.12	11%	11	089% 110% 2+1%
Liam CullenMID	Swansea City	0.18	58provisional	0.12	11%	61	089% 110% 2+1%
Edoardo BoveMID	Watford	0.42	24provisional	0.11	11%	3	089% 110% 2+1%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	0.20	51provisional	0.11	11%	34	089% 110% 2+1%
James MorrisDEF	Watford	0.18	55provisional	0.11	10%	13	090% 110% 2+1%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves44 playersHighest: Egil Selvik, 3.07 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Egil Selvik
GK · Watford
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
3.07
O 2.5
57%
Model /90
3.09
06%
116%
221%
320%
415%
510%
6+11%
Daniel Bachmann
GK · Watford
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
2.90
O 2.5
53%
Model /90
3.02
07%
117%
222%
320%
415%
59%
6+9%
Lawrence Vigouroux
GK · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.47
O 2.5
44%
Model /90
2.47
010%
122%
224%
319%
412%
57%
6+5%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Matthew Pollock
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Marc Bola
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jeremy Ngakia
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kévin Keben
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Cameron Burgess
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Benjamin Cabango
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Josh Tymon
DEF · Swansea City
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
James Morris
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Pierre Dwomoh
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	3.09	89provisional	3.07	57%	56	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	3.02	87provisional	2.90	53%	21	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Lawrence VigourouxGK	Swansea City	2.47	90provisional	2.47	44%	91	010% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	72	0100% 1+0%
Matthew PollockDEF	Watford	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	77	0100% 1+0%
Marc BolaDEF	Watford	0.00	78provisional	0.00	—	32	0100% 1+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	23	0100% 1+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	25	0100% 1+0%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	0.00	73provisional	0.00	—	56	0100% 1+0%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.00	70provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	36	0100% 1+0%
Kévin KebenDEF	Watford	0.00	68provisional	0.00	—	28	0100% 1+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	20	0100% 1+0%
Cameron BurgessDEF	Swansea City	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%
Benjamin CabangoDEF	Swansea City	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	90	0100% 1+0%
Josh TymonDEF	Swansea City	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	89	0100% 1+0%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	43	0100% 1+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	19	0100% 1+0%
James MorrisDEF	Watford	0.00	55provisional	0.00	—	13	0100% 1+0%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	0.00	53provisional	0.00	—	6	0100% 1+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.