Championship · England

Charlton AthleticvPreston North End

Saturday 29 August at 15:00The Valleylineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: Alistair McCann, 0.99 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.18
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.10
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.14
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.22
045%
132%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.34
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.49
046%
132%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.46
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.42
049%
130%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.96
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Liam Lindsay
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.02
050%
130%
213%
35%
41%
5+0%
Michael Smith
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.78
054%
126%
211%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.83
048%
134%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.99
050%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.79
048%
134%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.43
052%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.30
051%
131%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Karoy Anderson
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.24
052%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Robert Apter
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.46
054%
127%
212%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.29
053%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.79
051%
133%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	1.18	76provisional	0.99	27%	55	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.10	76provisional	0.93	24%	39	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	1.14	73provisional	0.92	24%	40	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.22	66provisional	0.89	23%	45	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	1.34	60provisional	0.89	23%	62	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.49	53provisional	0.88	22%	38	046% 132% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID	Preston North End	1.46	51provisional	0.83	21%	56	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	1.42	52provisional	0.82	21%	11	049% 130% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.96	74provisional	0.79	19%	46	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Liam LindsayDEF	Preston North End	1.02	69provisional	0.78	20%	61	050% 130% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%
Michael SmithFWD	Preston North End	1.78	39provisional	0.78	19%	37	054% 126% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	0.83	84provisional	0.77	19%	78	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	0.99	69provisional	0.76	19%	45	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.79	86provisional	0.75	18%	46	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.43	47provisional	0.75	19%	33	052% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	1.30	52provisional	0.74	18%	20	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Karoy AndersonMID	Charlton Athletic	1.24	54provisional	0.74	18%	10	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Robert ApterFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.46	45provisional	0.74	19%	13	054% 127% 212% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	1.29	51provisional	0.73	18%	34	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.79	81provisional	0.72	17%	37	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles43 playersHighest: Alistair McCann, 1.92 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.92
O 1.5
56%
Model /90
2.28
019%
126%
224%
317%
49%
54%
6+2%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.67
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
2.06
022%
129%
224%
314%
47%
53%
6+1%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.60
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
1.90
023%
130%
224%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.44
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.55
031%
129%
219%
311%
46%
52%
6+1%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.37
032%
129%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.49
028%
133%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.44
028%
134%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.72
031%
131%
221%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Karoy Anderson
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.20
034%
130%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.58
030%
133%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Odeluga Offiah
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.73
034%
129%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
James Bree
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.39
030%
135%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.22
031%
136%
221%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Pol Valentín Sancho
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.73
034%
133%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Jack Gibson
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.25
033%
135%
221%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Amari'i Bell
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.30
033%
135%
221%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.20
033%
135%
221%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
2.00
038%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Brad Potts
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.59
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Luke Chambers
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.42
034%
136%
220%
37%
42%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	2.28	76provisional	1.92	56%	55	019% 126% 224% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	2.06	73provisional	1.67	49%	40	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.90	76provisional	1.60	47%	39	023% 130% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	2.55	51provisional	1.44	40%	34	031% 129% 219% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	2.37	52provisional	1.37	39%	11	032% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.49	81provisional	1.35	39%	37	028% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	1.44	84provisional	1.34	39%	78	028% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	1.72	69provisional	1.33	38%	45	031% 131% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Karoy AndersonMID	Charlton Athletic	2.20	54provisional	1.31	37%	10	034% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.58	74provisional	1.30	37%	46	030% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Odeluga OffiahDEF	Preston North End	1.73	67provisional	1.29	37%	42	034% 129% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
James BreeDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.39	80provisional	1.23	35%	21	030% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	1.22	87provisional	1.18	33%	78	031% 136% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Pol Valentín SanchoDEF	Preston North End	1.73	61provisional	1.17	33%	33	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF	Preston North End	1.25	83provisional	1.16	32%	46	033% 135% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Amari'i BellDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.30	79provisional	1.15	32%	34	033% 135% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.20	86provisional	1.15	32%	46	033% 135% 221% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID	Preston North End	2.00	51provisional	1.14	31%	56	038% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Brad PottsDEF	Preston North End	1.59	62provisional	1.10	30%	45	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luke ChambersDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.42	69provisional	1.09	30%	18	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots43 playersHighest: Tyreece Campbell, 1.74 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.74
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
2.38
025%
128%
220%
313%
47%
54%
6+3%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.52
031%
129%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.10
034%
128%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.49
037%
128%
217%
39%
45%
52%
6+2%
Robert Apter
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.57
040%
125%
216%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.55
033%
132%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.31
038%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.41
039%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Will Keane
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.27
046%
127%
214%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Michael Smith
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
2.31
048%
127%
212%
36%
43%
52%
6+1%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.22
041%
132%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Matt Godden
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
3.13
047%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+1%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.11
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Karoy Anderson
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.42
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.43
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.31
050%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Ibrahim Fullah
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
2.14
051%
131%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.29
053%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.26
053%
130%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.68
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
1.19
055%
128%
211%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.38	66provisional	1.74	47%	45	025% 128% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+3%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.52	53provisional	1.49	40%	38	031% 129% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	2.10	60provisional	1.40	38%	62	034% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.49	47provisional	1.31	35%	33	037% 128% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Robert ApterFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.57	45provisional	1.29	35%	13	040% 125% 216% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.55	74provisional	1.28	35%	46	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.31	76provisional	1.10	30%	39	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	1.41	69provisional	1.08	29%	45	039% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Will KeaneFWD	Preston North End	2.27	41provisional	1.03	27%	29	046% 127% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Michael SmithFWD	Preston North End	2.31	39provisional	1.01	25%	37	048% 127% 212% 36% 43% 52% 6+1%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	1.22	73provisional	0.99	26%	40	041% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Matt GoddenFWD	Charlton Athletic	3.13	27provisional	0.94	23%	11	047% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	1.11	76provisional	0.93	24%	55	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Karoy AndersonMID	Charlton Athletic	1.42	54provisional	0.84	22%	10	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	1.43	52provisional	0.82	21%	11	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	1.31	56provisional	0.82	21%	54	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ibrahim FullahMID	Charlton Athletic	2.14	32provisional	0.76	18%	11	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	1.29	51provisional	0.73	18%	34	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	1.26	52provisional	0.72	17%	20	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID	Preston North End	1.19	51provisional	0.68	16%	56	055% 128% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target43 playersHighest: Milutin Osmajić, 0.65 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.65
O 0.5
44%
Model /90
0.98
056%
129%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.65
O 0.5
43%
Model /90
1.23
057%
128%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Robert Apter
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.49
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.97
065%
124%
28%
32%
40%
5+0%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.49
O 0.5
36%
Model /90
0.82
064%
126%
27%
32%
4+0%
Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.48
O 0.5
36%
Model /90
0.66
064%
127%
27%
32%
4+0%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.47
069%
125%
25%
31%
4+0%
Will Keane
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.37
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.81
072%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.35
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.42
071%
123%
25%
31%
4+0%
Matt Godden
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
1.12
074%
120%
24%
31%
4+0%
Michael Smith
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.73
076%
119%
24%
31%
4+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.39
075%
121%
24%
3+1%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.33
077%
120%
23%
3+0%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.46
078%
119%
23%
3+1%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.32
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Ibrahim Fullah
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.71
079%
118%
23%
3+0%
Karoy Anderson
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.41
079%
118%
23%
3+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.39
081%
116%
22%
3+0%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.35
081%
116%
22%
3+0%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.35
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Luke Berry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
31
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.56
084%
113%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	0.98	60provisional	0.65	44%	62	056% 129% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.23	47provisional	0.65	43%	33	057% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Robert ApterFWD	Charlton Athletic	0.97	45provisional	0.49	35%	13	065% 124% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	0.82	53provisional	0.49	36%	38	064% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	0.66	66provisional	0.48	36%	45	064% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.47	74provisional	0.39	31%	46	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Will KeaneFWD	Preston North End	0.81	41provisional	0.37	28%	29	072% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.42	76provisional	0.35	29%	39	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Matt GoddenFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.12	27provisional	0.34	26%	11	074% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Michael SmithFWD	Preston North End	0.73	39provisional	0.32	24%	37	076% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	0.39	69provisional	0.30	25%	45	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	0.33	76provisional	0.28	23%	55	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	0.46	52provisional	0.27	22%	11	078% 119% 23% 3+1%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	0.32	73provisional	0.26	22%	40	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Ibrahim FullahMID	Charlton Athletic	0.71	32provisional	0.25	21%	11	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Karoy AndersonMID	Charlton Athletic	0.41	54provisional	0.25	21%	10	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	0.39	52provisional	0.22	19%	20	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	0.35	56provisional	0.22	19%	54	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	0.35	51provisional	0.20	17%	34	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Luke BerryMID	Charlton Athletic	0.56	31provisional	0.19	16%	16	084% 113% 22% 3+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Greg Docherty, 0.97 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.16
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.17
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.31
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.60
045%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.42
045%
130%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.06
045%
132%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.08
048%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Amari'i Bell
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
0.94
046%
133%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.02
047%
132%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.43
049%
131%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.28
050%
129%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.87
049%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.82
048%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Odeluga Offiah
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.03
052%
129%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.46
052%
129%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Robert Apter
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.50
054%
127%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.77
050%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Karoy Anderson
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.22
053%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.26
053%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Lewis Jack Gibson
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.78
051%
132%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.16	76provisional	0.97	26%	39	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.17	74provisional	0.96	25%	46	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.31	66provisional	0.96	25%	45	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.60	53provisional	0.95	24%	38	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	1.42	60provisional	0.95	25%	62	045% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	1.06	76provisional	0.90	23%	55	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	1.08	69provisional	0.83	21%	45	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Amari'i BellDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.94	79provisional	0.83	21%	34	046% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	1.02	73provisional	0.83	21%	40	047% 132% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	1.43	52provisional	0.82	20%	20	049% 131% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	1.28	56provisional	0.80	20%	54	050% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.87	81provisional	0.79	19%	37	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.82	86provisional	0.78	19%	46	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Odeluga OffiahDEF	Preston North End	1.03	67provisional	0.77	19%	42	052% 129% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.46	47provisional	0.76	19%	33	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Robert ApterFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.50	45provisional	0.76	19%	13	054% 127% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	0.77	87provisional	0.74	17%	78	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Karoy AndersonMID	Charlton Athletic	1.22	54provisional	0.73	18%	10	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	1.26	52provisional	0.73	18%	11	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF	Preston North End	0.78	83provisional	0.73	17%	46	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards43 playersHighest: Alistair McCann, 0.14 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Liam Lindsay
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
James Bree
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.21
089%
110%
2+1%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
110%
2+1%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.20
089%
110%
2+1%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.19
089%
110%
2+1%
Lewis Jack Gibson
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.12
089%
110%
2+1%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
110%
2+1%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
110%
2+1%
Joe Rankin-Costello
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
35
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.29
090%
19%
2+1%
Luke Chambers
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.14
090%
110%
2+1%
Amari'i Bell
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.12
090%
110%
2+1%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.19
090%
19%
2+1%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.10
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.18
090%
19%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	0.17	76provisional	0.14	13%	55	087% 112% 2+1%
Liam LindsayDEF	Preston North End	0.17	69provisional	0.13	12%	61	088% 111% 2+1%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.16	76provisional	0.13	12%	39	088% 111% 2+1%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	0.14	84provisional	0.13	12%	78	088% 111% 2+1%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	0.13	87provisional	0.13	12%	78	088% 111% 2+1%
James BreeDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.15	80provisional	0.13	12%	21	088% 111% 2+1%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.13	86provisional	0.13	12%	46	088% 111% 2+1%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	0.15	73provisional	0.13	12%	40	088% 111% 2+1%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	0.21	52provisional	0.12	11%	11	089% 110% 2+1%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.13	81provisional	0.12	11%	37	089% 110% 2+1%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	0.20	52provisional	0.12	11%	20	089% 110% 2+1%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	0.19	56provisional	0.12	11%	54	089% 110% 2+1%
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF	Preston North End	0.12	83provisional	0.11	11%	46	089% 110% 2+1%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.14	74provisional	0.11	11%	46	089% 110% 2+1%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	0.15	69provisional	0.11	11%	45	089% 110% 2+1%
Joe Rankin-CostelloDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.29	35provisional	0.11	10%	23	090% 19% 2+1%
Luke ChambersDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.14	69provisional	0.11	10%	18	090% 110% 2+1%
Amari'i BellDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.12	79provisional	0.11	10%	34	090% 110% 2+1%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	0.19	51provisional	0.11	10%	34	090% 19% 2+1%
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID	Preston North End	0.18	51provisional	0.10	10%	56	090% 19% 2+1%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves43 playersHighest: Daniel Iversen, 2.92 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Daniel Iversen
GK · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
2.92
O 2.5
54%
Model /90
2.96
07%
117%
222%
320%
415%
59%
6+10%
David Cornell
GK · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
2.68
O 2.5
48%
Model /90
2.92
012%
119%
221%
318%
413%
58%
6+9%
Thomas Kaminski
GK · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.38
O 2.5
42%
Model /90
2.38
011%
123%
224%
319%
412%
56%
6+5%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lewis Jack Gibson
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Odeluga Offiah
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Liam Lindsay
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Brad Potts
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Thierr Small
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Pol Valentín Sancho
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Amari'i Bell
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
James Bree
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Daniel IversenGK	Preston North End	2.96	89provisional	2.92	54%	36	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
David CornellGK	Preston North End	2.92	83provisional	2.68	48%	18	012% 119% 221% 318% 413% 58% 6+9%
Thomas KaminskiGK	Charlton Athletic	2.38	90provisional	2.38	42%	37	011% 123% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	78	0100% 1+0%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	78	0100% 1+0%
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF	Preston North End	0.00	83provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	55	0100% 1+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%
Odeluga OffiahDEF	Preston North End	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	42	0100% 1+0%
Liam LindsayDEF	Preston North End	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	61	0100% 1+0%
Brad PottsDEF	Preston North End	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%
Thierr SmallDEF	Preston North End	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	41	0100% 1+0%
Pol Valentín SanchoDEF	Preston North End	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	62	0100% 1+0%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	0.00	56provisional	0.00	—	54	0100% 1+0%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.00	81provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Amari'i BellDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
James BreeDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	21	0100% 1+0%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	39	0100% 1+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.