Championship · England

WatfordvWest Ham United

Saturday 29 August at 15:00Vicarage Roadlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls47 playersHighest: Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez, 1.55 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	West Ham United	1.80	78provisional	1.55	46%	18	022% 133% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas Tolentino Coelho de LimaMID	West Ham United	1.72	77provisional	1.46	42%	47	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.56	84provisional	1.45	42%	72	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Edson Omar Álvarez VelázquezMID	West Ham United	1.85	64provisional	1.31	37%	24	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Pablo Felipe Pereira de JesusFWD	West Ham United	1.93	59provisional	1.27	36%	10	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	1.58	68provisional	1.19	34%	58	035% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.37	77provisional	1.17	33%	23	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.58	65provisional	1.15	32%	41	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Niclas FüllkrugFWD	West Ham United	2.09	46provisional	1.07	28%	18	039% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	1.81	51provisional	1.03	28%	34	042% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Tackles47 playersHighest: Jeremy Ngakia, 3.13 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	3.88	73provisional	3.13	74%	56	09% 117% 219% 317% 414% 510% 6+14%
Lucas Tolentino Coelho de LimaMID	West Ham United	2.47	77provisional	2.10	58%	47	017% 125% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	3.01	60provisional	2.02	51%	16	028% 122% 217% 313% 49% 56% 6+6%
Edson Omar Álvarez VelázquezMID	West Ham United	2.69	64provisional	1.90	52%	24	021% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	1.92	86provisional	1.83	52%	59	020% 128% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Oliver ScarlesDEF	West Ham United	3.46	47provisional	1.82	46%	17	029% 125% 217% 312% 48% 55% 6+5%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	2.16	73provisional	1.75	49%	45	023% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Soungoutou MagassaMID	West Ham United	3.48	45provisional	1.72	42%	12	033% 124% 215% 311% 47% 54% 6+5%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.85	84provisional	1.72	49%	72	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	2.19	66provisional	1.60	45%	20	026% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Shots47 playersHighest: Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez, 2.17 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	West Ham United	2.52	78provisional	2.17	62%	18	013% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	2.96	66provisional	2.15	60%	20	016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	2.78	67provisional	2.06	57%	36	019% 124% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	3.64	51provisional	2.05	54%	26	021% 125% 220% 314% 49% 55% 6+5%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	1.99	89provisional	1.96	57%	72	016% 128% 226% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	2.04	84provisional	1.89	55%	72	018% 127% 225% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	3.57	46provisional	1.82	47%	27	026% 127% 219% 312% 48% 54% 6+4%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	2.21	70provisional	1.73	49%	67	024% 127% 222% 314% 48% 53% 6+2%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	2.57	51provisional	1.46	40%	34	032% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.75	65provisional	1.27	35%	41	034% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	2.65	42provisional	1.25	33%	29	037% 130% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Thomas InceFWD	Watford	2.79	39provisional	1.21	31%	30	041% 128% 215% 38% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas Tolentino Coelho de LimaMID	West Ham United	1.38	77provisional	1.17	33%	47	034% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD	Watford	3.64	27provisional	1.11	27%	8	044% 129% 213% 36% 44% 52% 6+2%
Pablo Felipe Pereira de JesusFWD	West Ham United	1.67	59provisional	1.10	30%	10	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marc BolaDEF	Watford	1.22	78provisional	1.06	29%	32	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.26	74provisional	1.03	28%	25	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Niclas FüllkrugFWD	West Ham United	1.84	46provisional	0.94	24%	18	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	1.20	68provisional	0.91	24%	58	044% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	1.51	53provisional	0.89	24%	6	049% 127% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan AndrewsDEF	Watford	1.53	52provisional	0.88	23%	25	049% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	0.97	73provisional	0.79	19%	56	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
James Ward-ProwseMID	West Ham United	0.85	73provisional	0.69	16%	18	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	0.98	61provisional	0.66	16%	43	056% 129% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Matthew PollockDEF	Watford	0.70	84provisional	0.65	14%	77	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Konstantinos MavropanosDEF	West Ham United	0.66	72provisional	0.52	11%	53	061% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
El Hadji Malick DioufDEF	West Ham United	0.53	85provisional	0.50	9%	31	061% 129% 28% 31% 4+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.57	77provisional	0.48	9%	23	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	0.65	61provisional	0.44	8%	19	066% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Edoardo BoveMID	Watford	1.57	24provisional	0.42	8%	3	068% 124% 26% 32% 40% 5+0%
Edson Omar Álvarez VelázquezMID	West Ham United	0.57	64provisional	0.40	7%	24	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Soungoutou MagassaMID	West Ham United	0.76	45provisional	0.37	7%	12	071% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Kévin KebenDEF	Watford	0.46	68provisional	0.35	5%	28	072% 123% 25% 3+1%
Max KilmanDEF	West Ham United	0.35	83provisional	0.33	5%	54	073% 123% 24% 3+1%
James MorrisDEF	Watford	0.52	55provisional	0.32	5%	13	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Jérémy PétrisDEF	Watford	0.53	53provisional	0.31	5%	11	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	0.29	86provisional	0.28	3%	59	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Freddie PottsMID	West Ham United	0.47	53provisional	0.28	4%	15	077% 119% 23% 3+1%
Oliver ScarlesDEF	West Ham United	0.51	47provisional	0.27	4%	17	078% 119% 23% 3+1%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	0.37	60provisional	0.25	3%	16	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Andrew IrvingMID	West Ham United	1.14	19provisional	0.25	4%	3	081% 115% 23% 31% 4+0%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	0.23	73provisional	0.18	2%	45	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Mohamadou KantéMID	West Ham United	1.09	7provisional	0.09	0%	0	092% 18% 2+0%
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	56	0100% 1+0%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	21	0100% 1+0%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	18	0100% 1+0%
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%

All 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won47 playersHighest: Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima, 1.71 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lucas Tolentino Coelho de LimaMID	West Ham United	2.01	77provisional	1.71	49%	47	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	2.35	65provisional	1.71	48%	41	025% 128% 221% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.70	74provisional	1.40	40%	25	030% 130% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	1.40	89provisional	1.38	40%	72	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jérémy PétrisDEF	Watford	2.06	53provisional	1.21	34%	11	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.41	77provisional	1.20	34%	23	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	2.12	51provisional	1.20	33%	26	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.53	66provisional	1.11	31%	20	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.16	84provisional	1.08	29%	72	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	2.01	42provisional	0.95	24%	29	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Cards47 playersHighest: Imran Louza, 0.25 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	0.27	84provisional	0.25	22%	72	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Lucas Tolentino Coelho de LimaMID	West Ham United	0.27	77provisional	0.23	20%	47	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Edson Omar Álvarez VelázquezMID	West Ham United	0.29	64provisional	0.20	18%	24	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.23	77provisional	0.20	18%	23	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	West Ham United	0.20	78provisional	0.18	16%	18	084% 115% 2+1%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	0.22	68provisional	0.17	15%	58	085% 114% 2+1%
Matthew PollockDEF	Watford	0.18	84provisional	0.17	15%	77	085% 114% 2+1%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	0.27	51provisional	0.15	14%	26	086% 113% 2+1%
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	0.14	88provisional	0.14	13%	46	087% 112% 2+1%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	0.19	65provisional	0.14	13%	41	087% 112% 2+1%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Saves4 playersHighest: Alphonse Areola, 3.40 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	3.47	88provisional	3.40	63%	46	05% 113% 219% 320% 416% 512% 6+15%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	3.05	90provisional	3.05	56%	18	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	2.54	89provisional	2.52	45%	56	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	2.48	87provisional	2.38	42%	21	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.