Championship · England

WatfordvWest Ham United

Saturday 29 August at 15:00Vicarage Roadlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls47 playersHighest: Taty Castellanos, 1.52 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	1.78	77provisional	1.52	45%	18	022% 133% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.66	82provisional	1.51	44%	47	023% 133% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	1.55	81provisional	1.40	41%	72	027% 132% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	1.49	79provisional	1.30	37%	58	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	1.83	63provisional	1.28	36%	24	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.48	78provisional	1.28	36%	41	029% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
PabloFWD	West Ham United	1.90	59provisional	1.24	35%	10	034% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.35	78provisional	1.16	32%	23	034% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Niclas FüllkrugFWD	West Ham United	1.98	52provisional	1.15	31%	18	036% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	1.46	60provisional	0.97	26%	26	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Tackles47 playersHighest: Jeremy Ngakia, 1.82 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	2.30	71provisional	1.82	50%	56	022% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	1.87	68provisional	1.42	39%	16	033% 127% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	1.28	84provisional	1.19	33%	59	034% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.28	82provisional	1.16	32%	47	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	1.18	81provisional	1.06	29%	72	038% 133% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	1.22	76provisional	1.02	27%	45	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Oliver ScarlesDEF	West Ham United	1.80	48provisional	0.97	26%	17	046% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.32	64provisional	0.94	25%	20	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	1.34	63provisional	0.94	24%	24	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
James Ward-ProwseMID	West Ham United	1.11	75provisional	0.92	24%	18	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Shots47 playersHighest: Nestory Irankunda, 2.34 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	3.51	60provisional	2.34	62%	26	016% 122% 221% 317% 411% 57% 6+6%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	2.49	77provisional	2.13	61%	18	013% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	2.95	64provisional	2.10	58%	20	017% 125% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	2.77	66provisional	2.03	56%	36	019% 125% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	3.48	51provisional	1.99	52%	27	023% 125% 219% 314% 49% 55% 6+5%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	1.96	89provisional	1.93	56%	72	016% 128% 226% 317% 48% 54% 6+2%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	2.14	80provisional	1.91	55%	67	018% 127% 225% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	2.03	81provisional	1.83	53%	72	020% 128% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.67	78provisional	1.44	41%	41	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.34	82provisional	1.22	34%	47	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Fouls won47 playersHighest: Crysencio Summerville, 1.95 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	2.27	78provisional	1.95	56%	41	017% 127% 225% 316% 49% 54% 6+2%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.97	82provisional	1.78	52%	47	019% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	1.38	89provisional	1.36	39%	72	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	2.04	60provisional	1.36	38%	26	030% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Tom Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.69	69provisional	1.29	37%	25	034% 129% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.39	78provisional	1.20	34%	23	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jérémy PetrisDEF	Watford	2.04	52provisional	1.19	33%	11	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.51	64provisional	1.08	29%	20	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	1.15	81provisional	1.04	28%	72	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	1.36	68provisional	1.03	28%	16	041% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Cards47 playersHighest: Imrân Louza, 0.24 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	0.27	81provisional	0.24	21%	72	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	0.26	82provisional	0.24	21%	47	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	0.28	63provisional	0.20	18%	24	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.23	78provisional	0.20	18%	23	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	0.21	79provisional	0.18	17%	58	083% 115% 2+2%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	0.20	77provisional	0.17	16%	18	084% 114% 2+1%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	0.25	60provisional	0.17	15%	26	085% 114% 2+1%
Mattie PollockDEF	Watford	0.18	83provisional	0.16	15%	77	085% 114% 2+1%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	0.18	78provisional	0.16	14%	41	086% 113% 2+1%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.16	80provisional	0.15	13%	67	087% 112% 2+1%
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	0.14	89provisional	0.14	13%	46	087% 112% 2+1%
El Hadji Malick DioufDEF	West Ham United	0.14	87provisional	0.14	13%	31	087% 112% 2+1%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	0.17	71provisional	0.13	12%	56	088% 112% 2+1%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	0.14	76provisional	0.12	11%	45	089% 110% 2+1%
James Ward-ProwseMID	West Ham United	0.14	75provisional	0.12	11%	18	089% 110% 2+1%
Konstantinos MavropanosDEF	West Ham United	0.13	79provisional	0.12	11%	53	089% 110% 2+1%
Soungoutou MagassaMID	West Ham United	0.25	40provisional	0.11	10%	12	090% 19% 2+1%
Maximilian KilmanDEF	West Ham United	0.16	62provisional	0.11	10%	54	090% 110% 2+1%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	0.16	62provisional	0.11	10%	19	090% 19% 2+1%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	0.14	68provisional	0.11	10%	16	090% 19% 2+1%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	0.11	84provisional	0.11	10%	59	090% 19% 2+1%
Jérémy PetrisDEF	Watford	0.18	52provisional	0.10	10%	11	090% 19% 2+1%
Kévin KebenDEF	Watford	0.15	62provisional	0.10	10%	28	090% 19% 2+1%
Edoardo BoveMID	Watford	0.37	25provisional	0.10	9%	3	091% 19% 2+1%
Freddie PottsMID	West Ham United	0.17	51provisional	0.10	9%	15	091% 19% 2+1%
Ryan AndrewsDEF	Watford	0.23	36provisional	0.09	9%	25	091% 18% 2+1%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	0.15	53provisional	0.09	8%	6	092% 18% 2+1%
Niclas FüllkrugFWD	West Ham United	0.15	52provisional	0.09	8%	18	092% 18% 2+0%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	0.30	27provisional	0.09	8%	29	092% 18% 2+0%
Andrew IrvingMID	West Ham United	0.30	25provisional	0.08	8%	3	092% 17% 2+1%
PabloFWD	West Ham United	0.12	59provisional	0.08	8%	10	092% 17% 2+0%
James MorrisDEF	Watford	0.17	41provisional	0.08	7%	13	093% 17% 2+1%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	0.19	36provisional	0.08	7%	34	093% 17% 2+0%
Oliver ScarlesDEF	West Ham United	0.14	48provisional	0.07	7%	17	093% 17% 2+0%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	0.22	30provisional	0.07	7%	43	093% 16% 2+0%
Tom Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	0.09	69provisional	0.07	7%	25	093% 17% 2+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	0.10	64provisional	0.07	7%	20	093% 16% 2+0%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	0.07	89provisional	0.06	6%	72	094% 16% 2+0%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	0.07	66provisional	0.05	5%	36	095% 15% 2+0%
Marc BolaDEF	Watford	0.08	62provisional	0.05	5%	32	095% 15% 2+0%
Vivaldo SemedoFWD	Watford	0.21	22provisional	0.05	5%	8	095% 15% 2+0%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	0.07	51provisional	0.04	4%	27	096% 14% 2+0%
Mohamadou KantéMID	West Ham United	0.38	7provisional	0.03	3%	0	097% 1+3%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	0.03	90provisional	0.03	3%	18	097% 1+3%
Tom InceFWD	Watford	0.08	31provisional	0.03	3%	30	097% 1+3%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	0.03	87provisional	0.02	2%	21	098% 1+2%
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	0.01	89provisional	0.01	1%	56	099% 1+1%

All 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves4 playersHighest: Alphonse Areola, 3.43 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	3.48	89provisional	3.43	64%	46	05% 113% 219% 320% 417% 512% 6+16%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	3.08	90provisional	3.08	57%	18	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	2.52	89provisional	2.50	44%	56	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	2.46	87provisional	2.36	41%	21	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.