Championship · England

WrexhamvBirmingham City

Friday 28 August at 20:00Racecourse Groundlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: Jay Stansfield, 1.39 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	1.66	75provisional	1.39	40%	42	026% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	1.99	54provisional	1.18	32%	12	038% 130% 217% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	1.25	84provisional	1.17	33%	45	032% 135% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.49	69provisional	1.14	32%	30	037% 131% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	1.41	65provisional	1.02	28%	15	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	1.11	78provisional	0.97	26%	39	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	1.47	57provisional	0.93	25%	10	047% 127% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	1.14	73provisional	0.93	24%	34	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 5+0%
Phil NeumannDEF	Birmingham City	0.93	88provisional	0.91	23%	32	041% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Christoph KlarerDEF	Birmingham City	0.84	90provisional	0.84	21%	43	043% 136% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Tackles43 playersHighest: George Dobson, 2.13 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	2.63	73provisional	2.13	57%	34	019% 124% 221% 315% 410% 55% 6+5%
Kai WagnerDEF	Birmingham City	1.81	87provisional	1.76	50%	16	020% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	2.03	76provisional	1.71	48%	30	025% 127% 221% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Marc LeonardMID	Birmingham City	3.36	46provisional	1.70	43%	10	028% 129% 219% 311% 46% 54% 6+4%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	1.66	88provisional	1.62	46%	40	024% 130% 223% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	2.05	71provisional	1.61	45%	30	028% 127% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	2.44	57provisional	1.54	41%	10	036% 123% 216% 311% 47% 54% 6+3%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	1.64	84provisional	1.53	44%	45	025% 131% 223% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	1.99	66provisional	1.46	41%	23	028% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	2.14	60provisional	1.43	39%	24	033% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Shots43 playersHighest: Kieffer Moore, 1.97 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	2.55	69provisional	1.97	54%	30	022% 124% 221% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	2.31	75provisional	1.94	56%	42	017% 127% 225% 316% 49% 54% 6+2%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	2.72	59provisional	1.77	49%	31	024% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Marvin DuckschFWD	Birmingham City	2.44	60provisional	1.62	46%	26	027% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	2.26	62provisional	1.56	44%	29	026% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	2.39	51provisional	1.36	37%	21	033% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	1.85	63provisional	1.30	37%	28	033% 130% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	2.06	54provisional	1.23	33%	12	037% 129% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	1.67	58provisional	1.08	29%	13	040% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sam SmithFWD	Wrexham	2.35	39provisional	1.00	26%	18	050% 124% 212% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Lewis O'Brien, 1.25 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	1.59	71provisional	1.25	35%	30	034% 131% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.42	69provisional	1.09	30%	30	039% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	1.50	62provisional	1.03	28%	29	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	1.37	66provisional	1.00	27%	23	039% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	1.40	63provisional	0.98	26%	28	042% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Keshi AndersonFWD	Birmingham City	2.28	38provisional	0.96	25%	11	045% 130% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF	Birmingham City	1.49	58provisional	0.95	25%	20	044% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ethan LairdDEF	Birmingham City	1.94	43provisional	0.93	24%	12	046% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Liberato CacaceDEF	Wrexham	1.36	60provisional	0.91	24%	8	047% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	1.37	58provisional	0.89	23%	13	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	1.11	65provisional	0.80	20%	15	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.81	90provisional	0.80	19%	40	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	1.60	45provisional	0.80	20%	14	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alex CochraneDEF	Birmingham City	0.97	73provisional	0.79	20%	19	048% 132% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kai WagnerDEF	Birmingham City	0.80	87provisional	0.78	19%	16	047% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	1.33	51provisional	0.76	19%	21	051% 130% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	1.15	59provisional	0.75	18%	31	051% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Jack RobinsonDEF	Birmingham City	0.85	75provisional	0.70	16%	15	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	0.75	84provisional	0.70	16%	45	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	0.83	76provisional	0.70	16%	30	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	0.77	78provisional	0.67	15%	39	052% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Phil NeumannDEF	Birmingham City	0.67	88provisional	0.66	14%	32	052% 133% 211% 33% 4+1%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	1.02	57provisional	0.64	16%	10	058% 126% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Christoph KlarerDEF	Birmingham City	0.62	90provisional	0.62	13%	43	054% 133% 210% 32% 4+0%
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	0.64	85provisional	0.60	13%	34	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	0.98	54provisional	0.59	13%	12	059% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.72	73provisional	0.58	12%	34	058% 130% 210% 32% 4+1%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	0.81	62provisional	0.55	12%	23	060% 127% 29% 32% 4+1%
Sam SmithFWD	Wrexham	1.28	39provisional	0.55	13%	18	064% 122% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	0.82	60provisional	0.55	12%	24	061% 128% 29% 32% 4+1%
Willum Thór WillumssonMID	Birmingham City	1.07	39provisional	0.47	11%	5	068% 122% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Ryan BarnettDEF	Wrexham	1.15	35provisional	0.44	9%	4	068% 122% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Tommy DoyleMID	Birmingham City	0.79	50provisional	0.44	9%	23	067% 125% 27% 32% 4+0%
Marc LeonardMID	Birmingham City	0.80	46provisional	0.41	7%	10	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Kyogo FuruhashiFWD	Birmingham City	1.00	36provisional	0.40	7%	14	070% 123% 26% 31% 4+0%
Lewis KoumasFWD	Birmingham City	1.06	32provisional	0.38	7%	10	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Dan ScarrDEF	Wrexham	0.47	67provisional	0.35	6%	16	072% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	0.38	75provisional	0.32	4%	42	073% 123% 24% 3+1%
Marvin DuckschFWD	Birmingham City	0.48	60provisional	0.32	5%	26	074% 122% 24% 3+1%
Ryan AllsopGK	Birmingham City	0.30	90provisional	0.30	4%	11	074% 122% 23% 3+0%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	0.27	88provisional	0.27	3%	40	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	0.15	90provisional	0.15	1%	35	086% 113% 2+1%
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	0.09	88provisional	0.09	0%	38	091% 18% 2+0%

All 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Cards43 playersHighest: Christoph Klarer, 0.17 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Christoph KlarerDEF	Birmingham City	0.17	90provisional	0.17	16%	43	084% 115% 2+1%
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	0.17	90provisional	0.17	15%	35	085% 114% 2+1%
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	0.23	65provisional	0.16	15%	15	085% 114% 2+1%
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	0.17	85provisional	0.16	15%	34	085% 114% 2+1%
Phil NeumannDEF	Birmingham City	0.16	88provisional	0.16	15%	32	085% 114% 2+1%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	0.17	84provisional	0.16	15%	45	085% 114% 2+1%
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	0.18	75provisional	0.15	14%	42	086% 113% 2+1%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.18	73provisional	0.15	14%	34	086% 112% 2+1%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	0.16	78provisional	0.14	13%	39	087% 112% 2+1%
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF	Birmingham City	0.22	58provisional	0.14	13%	20	087% 112% 2+1%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Saves3 playersHighest: James Beadle, 2.77 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	2.77	90provisional	2.77	51%	35	08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Ryan AllsopGK	Birmingham City	2.60	90provisional	2.60	47%	11	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	2.51	88provisional	2.45	44%	38	012% 121% 223% 319% 412% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.