Championship · England

WrexhamvBirmingham City

Friday 28 August at 20:00Racecourse Groundlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1947 · Tackles v20260815-1947 · Shots v20260815-1947 · Fouls won v20260815-1947 · Cards v20260815-1947 · Saves v20260815-1947

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: Jay Stansfield, 1.36 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	1.60	77provisional	1.36	39%	42	026% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	1.77	65provisional	1.27	36%	12	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	1.26	75provisional	1.05	28%	45	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	1.35	70provisional	1.05	28%	15	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	1.12	78provisional	0.97	25%	34	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	1.28	68provisional	0.97	26%	10	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sam SmithFWD	Wrexham	1.47	55provisional	0.90	24%	18	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Phil NeumannDEF	Birmingham City	0.91	88provisional	0.89	22%	32	041% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	1.44	56provisional	0.89	23%	14	044% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	1.11	71provisional	0.87	22%	39	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Tackles43 playersHighest: George Dobson, 1.44 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	1.65	78provisional	1.44	40%	34	028% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kai WagnerDEF	Birmingham City	1.33	87provisional	1.29	36%	16	030% 134% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	1.24	80provisional	1.10	30%	30	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	1.41	69provisional	1.08	29%	24	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	1.36	68provisional	1.02	28%	10	042% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	1.54	56provisional	0.95	25%	14	044% 131% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	1.13	71provisional	0.89	24%	40	048% 128% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	1.08	71provisional	0.85	21%	39	046% 133% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	0.99	75provisional	0.83	21%	45	047% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	1.05	70provisional	0.82	20%	15	047% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Shots43 playersHighest: Jay Stansfield, 1.97 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	2.31	77provisional	1.97	57%	42	016% 127% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	2.59	65provisional	1.88	53%	31	020% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	2.38	58provisional	1.53	43%	29	026% 131% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	2.64	49provisional	1.43	38%	30	033% 129% 218% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	1.96	65provisional	1.40	40%	12	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sam SmithFWD	Wrexham	2.16	55provisional	1.32	36%	18	036% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marvin DuckschFWD	Birmingham City	2.55	43provisional	1.21	32%	26	037% 130% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	1.57	68provisional	1.18	33%	13	034% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	2.59	40provisional	1.15	30%	21	038% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	1.82	57provisional	1.14	31%	28	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Keshi Anderson, 1.15 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Keshi AndersonFWD	Birmingham City	2.08	50provisional	1.15	31%	11	036% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF	Birmingham City	1.45	65provisional	1.04	28%	20	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Liberato CacaceDEF	Wrexham	1.27	69provisional	0.98	26%	8	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	1.52	58provisional	0.97	26%	29	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	1.27	68provisional	0.96	25%	13	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	1.52	56provisional	0.94	25%	14	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	1.40	59provisional	0.92	24%	23	043% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ethan LairdDEF	Birmingham City	1.86	44provisional	0.91	24%	12	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	1.63	50provisional	0.91	24%	30	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	1.40	57provisional	0.88	23%	28	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Cards43 playersHighest: Jhon Solís, 0.18 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	0.23	70provisional	0.18	16%	15	084% 115% 2+1%
Christoph KlarerDEF	Birmingham City	0.18	90provisional	0.18	16%	43	084% 115% 2+1%
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	0.17	86provisional	0.17	15%	34	085% 114% 2+1%
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	0.19	77provisional	0.17	15%	42	085% 114% 2+1%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.19	78provisional	0.16	15%	34	085% 114% 2+1%
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	0.16	90provisional	0.16	15%	35	085% 114% 2+1%
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF	Birmingham City	0.22	65provisional	0.16	15%	20	085% 113% 2+1%
Phil NeumannDEF	Birmingham City	0.16	88provisional	0.15	14%	32	086% 113% 2+1%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	0.24	56provisional	0.15	13%	14	087% 112% 2+1%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	0.17	75provisional	0.14	13%	45	087% 112% 2+1%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	0.20	59provisional	0.13	12%	23	088% 112% 2+1%
Jack RobinsonDEF	Birmingham City	0.15	76provisional	0.13	12%	15	088% 111% 2+1%
Dan ScarrDEF	Wrexham	0.15	74provisional	0.12	12%	16	088% 111% 2+1%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	0.16	71provisional	0.12	12%	39	088% 111% 2+1%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.12	90provisional	0.12	11%	40	089% 111% 2+1%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	0.16	68provisional	0.12	11%	10	089% 110% 2+1%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	0.18	56provisional	0.11	10%	23	090% 110% 2+1%
Sam SmithFWD	Wrexham	0.17	55provisional	0.11	10%	18	090% 19% 2+1%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	0.13	71provisional	0.10	10%	40	090% 19% 2+1%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	0.13	69provisional	0.10	9%	24	091% 19% 2+0%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	0.16	50provisional	0.09	9%	30	091% 18% 2+0%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	0.10	80provisional	0.09	9%	30	091% 18% 2+0%
Kai WagnerDEF	Birmingham City	0.09	87provisional	0.09	9%	16	091% 18% 2+0%
Marc LeonardMID	Birmingham City	0.21	38provisional	0.09	8%	10	092% 18% 2+0%
Liberato CacaceDEF	Wrexham	0.11	69provisional	0.09	8%	8	092% 18% 2+0%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	0.12	65provisional	0.09	8%	12	092% 18% 2+0%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	0.13	58provisional	0.09	8%	29	092% 18% 2+0%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	0.11	68provisional	0.09	8%	13	092% 18% 2+0%
Ethan LairdDEF	Birmingham City	0.16	44provisional	0.08	7%	12	093% 17% 2+0%
Lewis KoumasFWD	Birmingham City	0.15	46provisional	0.08	7%	10	093% 17% 2+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	0.14	49provisional	0.07	7%	30	093% 17% 2+0%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	0.09	65provisional	0.06	6%	31	094% 16% 2+0%
Alex CochraneDEF	Birmingham City	0.11	49provisional	0.06	6%	19	094% 15% 2+0%
Tommy DoyleMID	Birmingham City	0.13	39provisional	0.06	5%	23	095% 15% 2+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	0.08	57provisional	0.05	5%	28	095% 15% 2+0%
Willum Thór WillumssonMID	Birmingham City	0.17	27provisional	0.05	5%	5	095% 15% 2+0%
Keshi AndersonFWD	Birmingham City	0.08	50provisional	0.05	4%	11	096% 14% 2+0%
Kyogo FuruhashiFWD	Birmingham City	0.14	30provisional	0.05	4%	14	096% 14% 2+0%
Ryan BarnettDEF	Wrexham	0.15	27provisional	0.04	4%	4	096% 14% 2+0%
Marvin DuckschFWD	Birmingham City	0.09	43provisional	0.04	4%	26	096% 14% 2+0%
Ryan AllsopGK	Birmingham City	0.04	90provisional	0.04	4%	11	096% 1+4%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	0.05	40provisional	0.02	2%	21	098% 1+2%
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	0.01	89provisional	0.01	1%	38	099% 1+1%

All 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves3 playersHighest: James Beadle, 2.73 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	2.73	90provisional	2.73	50%	35	08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Ryan AllsopGK	Birmingham City	2.57	90provisional	2.57	46%	11	09% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	2.47	89provisional	2.43	43%	38	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.