Championship · England

West Bromwich AlbionvBurnley

Sunday 23 August at 12:00The Hawthornslineups not announced

Referee

Anthony Backhouse

41 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.1

-9% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formHannibal over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 3/5 away · strip 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 2 · market 78% · best 1.40 (Bet365) · bet365 1.40
opponentBurnley concede 5.6 shots on target a game — 1st most of 20 in the Championship
Over their last 9. Good news for West Bromwich Albion's shooters.
opponentBurnley concede 17.8 shots a game — 1st most of 20 in the Championship
Over their last 9. Good news for West Bromwich Albion's shooters.
opponentWest Bromwich Albion concede 18.0 tackles a game — 2nd most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. Good news for Burnley's tacklers.
opponentBurnley concede 8.9 fouls a game — 19th most of 20 in the Championship
Over their last 9. A hard place to get fouls.
refereeAnthony Backhouse: 21.1 fouls and 4.5 cards a game (league 22.3 / 3.4)
-1.1 fouls and +1.1 cards against his league's average over his last 20.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls40 playersHighest: Zian Flemming, 1.62 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	1.93	72provisional	1.62	47%	65	022% 130% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Aune HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.56	73provisional	1.33	38%	47	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
HannibalMID	Burnley	1.76	59provisional	1.28	36%	65	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	1.17	86provisional	1.13	31%	62	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luca KoleoshoFWD	Burnley	2.04	40provisional	1.09	29%	31	040% 131% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.16	66provisional	0.91	24%	76	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 5+0%
Lesley UgochukwuMID	Burnley	1.08	70provisional	0.90	23%	61	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	0.96	82provisional	0.89	23%	80	042% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Axel TuanzebeDEF	Burnley	0.95	82provisional	0.89	22%	36	042% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Daryl Enyinnaya DikeFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.77	35provisional	0.85	21%	35	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Shots40 playersHighest: Zian Flemming, 1.75 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	2.12	72provisional	1.75	50%	65	021% 128% 223% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.75	79provisional	1.57	46%	62	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mikey JohnstonFWD	West Bromwich Albion	2.02	66provisional	1.56	45%	74	025% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Aune HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.73	73provisional	1.45	42%	47	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Aaron RamseyMID	Burnley	2.22	40provisional	1.13	30%	11	038% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Daryl Enyinnaya DikeFWD	West Bromwich Albion	2.35	35provisional	1.05	27%	35	043% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Josh MajaFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.66	52provisional	1.05	28%	66	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jaydon BanelFWD	Burnley	1.90	42provisional	1.00	26%	15	042% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Andréas HountondjiFWD	Burnley	1.36	54provisional	0.89	23%	30	044% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	1.30	52provisional	0.82	21%	38	049% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Shots on target40 playersHighest: Zian Flemming, 0.69 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	0.84	72provisional	0.69	48%	65	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Aune HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	0.69	73provisional	0.58	43%	47	057% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.57	79provisional	0.51	39%	62	061% 130% 28% 31% 4+0%
Mikey JohnstonFWD	West Bromwich Albion	0.55	66provisional	0.43	34%	74	066% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Josh MajaFWD	West Bromwich Albion	0.65	52provisional	0.41	32%	66	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Aaron RamseyMID	Burnley	0.75	40provisional	0.39	31%	11	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Daryl Enyinnaya DikeFWD	West Bromwich Albion	0.82	35provisional	0.37	29%	35	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Jaydon BanelFWD	Burnley	0.62	42provisional	0.33	27%	15	073% 122% 24% 31% 4+0%
Andréas HountondjiFWD	Burnley	0.48	54provisional	0.31	26%	30	074% 122% 24% 3+1%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	0.40	52provisional	0.25	21%	38	079% 118% 23% 3+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Fouls won40 playersHighest: Hannibal, 1.49 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
HannibalMID	Burnley	2.14	59provisional	1.49	42%	65	028% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Aune HeggebøFWD	West Bromwich Albion	1.49	73provisional	1.24	35%	47	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	1.10	86provisional	1.06	28%	62	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	1.23	72provisional	1.01	27%	65	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jayson MolumbyMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.30	66provisional	0.99	26%	76	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ousmane DiakitéMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.23	67provisional	0.95	25%	59	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Callum StylesDEF	West Bromwich Albion	1.01	82provisional	0.93	24%	80	041% 135% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	1.42	52provisional	0.88	23%	38	047% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh-AlobaMID	West Bromwich Albion	1.75	40provisional	0.85	22%	11	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Isaac PriceMID	West Bromwich Albion	0.89	79provisional	0.79	19%	62	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Max O'Leary, 2.05 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Max O'LearyGK	West Bromwich Albion	2.07	89provisional	2.05	34%	70	015% 126% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+3%
Joe WildsmithGK	West Bromwich Albion	1.95	87provisional	1.90	30%	17	017% 128% 225% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.