opponent
Cardiff City
12.3
Concede fouls committed · 3rd most of 27 · last 10 matchesAllowed a game
Championship · England
expected lineupDerby CountyDerby County last 5, most recent first: lost 1-2 away at Charlton Athletic, lost 1-2 at home to Sheffield United, won 3-2 away at Queens Park Rangers, lost 1-2 away at Norwich City, won 1-0 at home to Oxford United. v Cardiff CityCardiff City last 5, most recent first: drew 1-1 at home to Wrexham, lost 2-4 away at Norwich City, drew 0-0 at home to West Bromwich Albion, drew 1-1 at home to Oxford United, lost 0-2 away at Sheffield United.
Best edge
+27.2%
Joe Ward · shots
Allowed a game
12.3
Cardiff City · Concede fouls committed
Referee
+19%
Ruebyn Ricardo · cards v league
1 live call — tap one for the price it beat
Shotsbet365Joe Ward+27.2%Over 1.5 shots3.75fair 2.95
The gap — the model’s fair price is 2.95 and bet365 is offering 3.75. That distance is the +27.2% edge, and it is what was published — not a price fetched now. Confidence low.
opponent
Cardiff City
17.2
Concede tackles · 3rd most of 27 · last 10 matchesAllowed a game
referee
Ruebyn Ricardo
22.6
Referee record · 4.9 cards a game · league 22.3 / 3.4 · last 20Fouls a game
RefereeRuebyn Ricardo25 on record
- Fouls/game
- 22.9-1%
- Cards/game
- 5.0+19%
Availability0 players projectedexpected lineup
- Minutes
- 0 confirmed
- 0 expected
- 0 provisional
An expected XI is out. Minutes mix whether a player is flagged to start with his own minutes as a starter and as a substitute.
Value — 1 live call
Published at the price shown, scored against the closing line.
Market
Sort
| Player | Market | Best odds | Fair odds | Edge | Bookmaker | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ward | Over 1.5 shots | 3.75 | 2.95 | +27.2% | bet365 | CLV +7.1% |
Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.
Derby CountyHome · 4-2-3-1 · 11
Bench3 Forsyth10 Brewster13 Bilbija15 Salvesen23 Ward24 Nyambe26 Hedges31 Vickers37 Eames
The expected XI — it changes until the teamsheet is handed in. Players are placed in the shape the teamsheet itself gives, so a player covering out of position appears where he is playing rather than where he is registered.
Recent results
Last six completed matches per side, newest first. Half-time score in brackets where the feed carries one.
Derby CountyDerby County last 5, most recent first: lost 1-2 away at Charlton Athletic, lost 1-2 at home to Sheffield United, won 3-2 away at Queens Park Rangers, lost 1-2 away at Norwich City, won 1-0 at home to Oxford United.
- 15 AugACharlton Athletic(1-0)1-2L
- 2 MayHSheffield United(1-0)1-2L
- 25 AprAQueens Park Rangers(1-1)3-2W
- 21 AprANorwich City(0-1)1-2L
- 18 AprHOxford United(1-0)1-0W
- 11 AprASouthampton(1-0)1-2L
Cardiff CityCardiff City last 5, most recent first: drew 1-1 at home to Wrexham, lost 2-4 away at Norwich City, drew 0-0 at home to West Bromwich Albion, drew 1-1 at home to Oxford United, lost 0-2 away at Sheffield United.
- 17 AugHWrexham(0-1)1-1D
- 3 MayANorwich City(0-3)2-4L
- 26 AprHWest Bromwich Albion(0-0)0-0D
- 21 AprHOxford United(0-0)1-1D
- 18 AprASheffield United(0-1)0-2L
- 12 AprHStoke City(0-0)0-1L
Player props
Model projections. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
How this is calculated →No projections for this fixture yet. The projection job runs against fixtures inside the odds window, and only for players with at least 10 completed matches on record.
Trends and angles
Form against the lines the books are pricing, what the opposition concede, and the referee against his league.
- 12.3Allowed a game3rd most of 27last 10 matches
- 17.2Allowed a game3rd most of 27last 10 matches
- 22.6Fouls a game4.9 cards a gameleague 22.3 / 3.4last 20
Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.
every priced linebuilderReferee
§5.1: the dominant covariate for fouls, and the reason two identical players price differently on different days.
Ruebyn Ricardo
25 matches on record · full record →
Fouls per game
22.9
-1% vs leagueleague 23.2 fouls
Cards per game
5.0
+19% vs leagueleague 4.2 cards
Cards, home side
2.0
Derby County
Cards, away side
2.9
Cardiff City
Derby County 2.0Where the cards go2.9 Cardiff City
Fouls — every foul committed by both teams in a match he refereed, averaged over his completed matches. The match being previewed is never in it.
Cards — any card, yellow or red, both teams. The same definition the card props settle against, so this figure and the Cards market count the same events. A dismissal that the feed records as a second yellow counts as two.
Both league averages are the mean across all five competitions Per90 covers, not this fixture's league alone — the fouls comparison has always been that, and the cards comparison is built the same way so the two percentages beside each other mean the same thing.
The model
What the numbers on this page are, and what they are not.
How are these projections calculated?OpenClose
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing in the projections has been compared to a bookmaker; that comparison is what the Value tab is.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee’s matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each column
- Model /90
- The model’s rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side. Open any row to see it.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
The full write-up — every gate, every fitted parameter and what the model refuses to price — is on the methodology page.