Championship · England
Preston North EndvWolverhampton Wanderers
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls43 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 1.21 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.33
031%135%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.28
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Alistair McCannprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.19
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.05
048%127%213%37%43%51%6+1% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.12
041%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.71
047%128%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Milutin Osmajićprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.35
046%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Hee-Chan Hwangprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.75
049%129%213%36%42%51%6+0% - Mads Frøkjær-Jensenprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.47
049%130%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.17
049%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Andrew Moranprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.43
049%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Liam Lindsayprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.03
050%130%214%35%41%5+0% - Michael Smithprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.80
054%126%211%35%42%51%6+0% - Andrew Hughesprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.84
047%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Ladislav Krejčíprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.83
047%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Alfie Devineprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.00
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.85
049%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Jordan Thompsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.31
051%131%212%34%41%5+0% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.38
052%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Robbie Bradyprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.30
052%130%212%34%41%50%6+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles43 playersHighest: Alistair McCann, 2.11 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Alistair McCannprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 2.11
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 2.51
016%123%224%318%411%55%6+3% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.95
- O 1.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 2.28
017%126%225%317%49%54%6+2% - Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciuttoprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.62
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.00
027%126%222%314%47%53%6+1% - Robbie Bradyprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.80
028%129%220%312%47%53%6+2% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.93
025%130%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Andrew Moranprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.50
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.60
029%128%220%312%46%52%6+1% - Andrew Hughesprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.58
024%133%224%312%45%51%6+1% - Alfie Devineprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.89
028%130%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.59
026%133%223%312%45%51%6+0% - Emmanuel Agbadouprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.52
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Odeluga Offiahprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.89
031%128%220%312%45%52%6+1% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.93
032%129%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Tote António Gomesprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.52
027%133%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Jackson Tchatchouaprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.03
033%130%219%311%45%52%6+1% - Jordan Storeyprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.34
028%135%223%310%43%51%6+0% - Pol Valentín Sanchoprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.90
031%133%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Hugo Buenoprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.71
033%130%220%310%44%51%6+0% - Angel Gomesprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.93
036%128%218%310%45%52%6+1% - Lewis Jack Gibsonprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.38
029%134%222%310%43%51%6+0% - Ladislav Krejčíprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.35
029%135%222%310%43%51%6+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots43 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 1.71 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.71
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 1.88
022%130%223%314%47%53%6+2% - Milutin Osmajićprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.34
031%127%219%311%46%53%6+2% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.59
043%126%214%38%45%52%6+2% - Alfie Devineprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.56
036%131%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Will Keaneprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.52
043%127%214%38%44%52%6+1% - Michael Smithprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 2.57
045%127%213%37%44%52%6+2% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.00
043%127%215%38%44%51%6+1% - Alistair McCannprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.23
040%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.23
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Hee-Chan Hwangprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.89
048%128%214%36%43%51%6+1% - Andrew Moranprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.59
046%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Stefán Teitur Þórðarsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.45
046%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.19
049%129%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Robbie Bradyprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.44
050%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Jordan Thompsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.40
050%131%213%35%42%50%6+0% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.93
048%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Mads Frøkjær-Jensenprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.32
052%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Angel Gomesprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.59
056%128%211%34%41%50%6+0% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 1.21
057%128%211%33%41%5+0% - Jordan Storeyprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.63
- O 1.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.66
055%132%210%33%41%5+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target43 playersHighest: Milutin Osmajić, 0.72 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Milutin Osmajićprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 0.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.09
053%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.61
- O 0.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 0.67
056%131%210%32%4+1% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.91
069%122%27%32%40%5+0% - Will Keaneprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.90
070%122%26%32%4+0% - Michael Smithprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.81
074%120%25%31%4+0% - Hee-Chan Hwangprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.70
073%121%25%31%4+0% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.63
073%121%25%31%4+0% - Alfie Devineprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.43
073%122%24%3+1% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.41
073%122%24%3+1% - Alistair McCannprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.36
074%121%24%3+1% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.42
075%120%24%3+1% - Andrew Moranprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.51
076%120%24%3+1% - Jordan Thompsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.43
079%118%23%3+0% - Stefán Teitur Þórðarsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.39
079%117%23%3+0% - Robbie Bradyprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.22
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.39
081%116%22%3+0% - Angel Gomesprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.49
082%116%22%3+0% - Brad Pottsprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.30
082%116%22%3+0% - Mads Frøkjær-Jensenprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.36
082%115%22%3+0% - Thierr Smallprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.30
082%116%22%3+0% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.37
083%115%22%3+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won43 playersHighest: Yerson Mosquera, 1.27 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.42
033%132%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.25
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Milutin Osmajićprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.53
043%130%216%37%43%51%6+0% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.16
041%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Alistair McCannprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.14
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.34
045%129%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.92
051%126%212%36%43%51%6+1% - Alfie Devineprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.16
046%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.10
046%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Jordan Thompsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.53
047%131%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Stefán Teitur Þórðarsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.37
048%130%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.59
049%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Odeluga Offiahprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.10
050%129%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Jordan Storeyprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.82
048%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Andrew Moranprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.35
051%129%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Lewis Jack Gibsonprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.84
048%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Brad Pottsprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.06
051%131%212%34%41%5+0% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.34
054%127%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Michael Smithprovisional
FWD · Preston North End
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.64
057%125%210%34%42%51%6+0% - Andrew Hughesprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.76
051%132%212%33%41%5+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards43 playersHighest: José Pedro Malheiro de Sá, 0.19 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- José Pedro Malheiro de Sáprovisional
GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.19
083%116%22%3+0% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%114%2+1% - Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Alistair McCannprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1% - Liam Lindsayprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.18
088%111%2+1% - Andrew Hughesprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Jordan Storeyprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Tote António Gomesprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Emmanuel Agbadouprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1% - Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Ladislav Krejčíprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.13
088%111%2+1% - Andrew Moranprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.21
089%110%2+1% - Jordan Thompsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.21
089%110%2+1% - Stefán Teitur Þórðarsonprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.19
089%110%2+1% - Lewis Jack Gibsonprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.12
089%110%2+1% - Alfie Devineprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1% - Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciuttoprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.14
090%110%2+1% - Robbie Bradyprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.19
090%19%2+1% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.20
090%19%2+1%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves43 playersHighest: Sam Johnstone, 2.99 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Sam Johnstoneprovisional
GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.99
- O 2.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.99
07%116%222%320%415%510%6+10% - José Pedro Malheiro de Sáprovisional
GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.82
- O 2.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 2.82
08%118%222%320%414%59%6+9% - Daniel Iversenprovisional
GK · Preston North End
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 2.40
- O 2.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.43
011%122%224%319%412%56%6+5% - David Cornellprovisional
GK · Preston North End
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 2.20
- O 2.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.40
016%123%223%317%411%56%6+4% - Jordan Storeyprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ladislav Krejčíprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Emmanuel Agbadouprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Tote António Gomesprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciuttoprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Hugo Buenoprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lewis Jack Gibsonprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Andrew Hughesprovisional
DEF · Preston North End
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jackson Tchatchouaprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Alistair McCannprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Alfie Devineprovisional
MID · Preston North End
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.