PER90My betsAccount

Championship · England

Preston North EndvWolverhampton Wanderers

Deepdalelineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 1.21 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.21
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.33
    031%
    135%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.28
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alistair McCann

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.19
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    2.05
    048%
    127%
    213%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.12
    041%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.71
    047%
    128%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Milutin Osmajić

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.35
    046%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hee-Chan Hwang

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.75
    049%
    129%
    213%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mads Frøkjær-Jensen

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.47
    049%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.17
    049%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Andrew Moran

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.43
    049%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Liam Lindsay

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.03
    050%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Michael Smith

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.80
    054%
    126%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andrew Hughes

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.84
    047%
    134%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Ladislav Krejčí

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.83
    047%
    134%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Alfie Devine

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.00
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.85
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jordan Thompson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.31
    051%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.38
    052%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Robbie Brady

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.30
    052%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles43 playersHighest: Alistair McCann, 2.11 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Alistair McCann

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    2.11
    O 1.5
    60%
    Model /90
    2.51
    016%
    123%
    224%
    318%
    411%
    55%
    6+3%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.95
    O 1.5
    57%
    Model /90
    2.28
    017%
    126%
    225%
    317%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.62
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.00
    027%
    126%
    222%
    314%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Robbie Brady

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    1.58
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.80
    028%
    129%
    220%
    312%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.55
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.93
    025%
    130%
    223%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Andrew Moran

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    1.50
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.60
    029%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Andrew Hughes

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.58
    024%
    133%
    224%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Alfie Devine

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.46
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.89
    028%
    130%
    222%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.59
    026%
    133%
    223%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Emmanuel Agbadou

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.52
    025%
    134%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Odeluga Offiah

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.41
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.89
    031%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.93
    032%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Tote António Gomes

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.36
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.52
    027%
    133%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jackson Tchatchoua

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    2.03
    033%
    130%
    219%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Jordan Storey

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.34
    028%
    135%
    223%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Pol Valentín Sancho

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.90
    031%
    133%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hugo Bueno

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.71
    033%
    130%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Angel Gomes

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    2.93
    036%
    128%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lewis Jack Gibson

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.38
    029%
    134%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ladislav Krejčí

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.35
    029%
    135%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots43 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 1.71 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.71
    O 1.5
    49%
    Model /90
    1.88
    022%
    130%
    223%
    314%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Milutin Osmajić

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.55
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.34
    031%
    127%
    219%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    2.59
    043%
    126%
    214%
    38%
    45%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Alfie Devine

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.20
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.56
    036%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Will Keane

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.52
    043%
    127%
    214%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Michael Smith

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    1.12
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    2.57
    045%
    127%
    213%
    37%
    44%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.00
    043%
    127%
    215%
    38%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Alistair McCann

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.23
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.23
    042%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hee-Chan Hwang

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.89
    048%
    128%
    214%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Andrew Moran

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.59
    046%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Stefán Teitur Þórðarson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.45
    046%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.19
    049%
    129%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Robbie Brady

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.44
    050%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jordan Thompson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.40
    050%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.93
    048%
    133%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mads Frøkjær-Jensen

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.32
    052%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Angel Gomes

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.69
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.59
    056%
    128%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.65
    O 1.5
    15%
    Model /90
    1.21
    057%
    128%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jordan Storey

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.63
    O 1.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.66
    055%
    132%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target43 playersHighest: Milutin Osmajić, 0.72 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Milutin Osmajić

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 0.5
    47%
    Model /90
    1.09
    053%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.61
    O 0.5
    44%
    Model /90
    0.67
    056%
    131%
    210%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.91
    069%
    122%
    27%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Will Keane

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.90
    070%
    122%
    26%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Michael Smith

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.35
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.81
    074%
    120%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Hee-Chan Hwang

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.35
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.70
    073%
    121%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.34
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.63
    073%
    121%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Alfie Devine

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.33
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.43
    073%
    122%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.33
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.41
    073%
    122%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Alistair McCann

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.36
    074%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.42
    075%
    120%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Andrew Moran

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.51
    076%
    120%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Jordan Thompson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.43
    079%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Stefán Teitur Þórðarson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.24
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.39
    079%
    117%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Robbie Brady

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.22
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.39
    081%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Angel Gomes

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.49
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Brad Potts

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.30
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Mads Frøkjær-Jensen

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.36
    082%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Thierr Small

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.30
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.37
    083%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Yerson Mosquera, 1.27 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.42
    033%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.25
    035%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Milutin Osmajić

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.53
    043%
    130%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.16
    041%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alistair McCann

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.14
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.34
    045%
    129%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.92
    051%
    126%
    212%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Alfie Devine

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.16
    046%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.10
    046%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jordan Thompson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.53
    047%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Stefán Teitur Þórðarson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.37
    048%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.59
    049%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Odeluga Offiah

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.10
    050%
    129%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jordan Storey

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.82
    048%
    133%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Andrew Moran

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.35
    051%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Lewis Jack Gibson

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.84
    048%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Brad Potts

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.06
    051%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.34
    054%
    127%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Michael Smith

    FWD · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.64
    057%
    125%
    210%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andrew Hughes

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.76
    051%
    132%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards43 playersHighest: José Pedro Malheiro de Sá, 0.19 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • José Pedro Malheiro de Sá

    GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.19
    083%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.19
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Alistair McCann

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.17
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Liam Lindsay

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.18
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Andrew Hughes

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Jordan Storey

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Tote António Gomes

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Emmanuel Agbadou

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.16
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Ladislav Krejčí

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.13
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Andrew Moran

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.21
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Jordan Thompson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.21
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Stefán Teitur Þórðarson

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.19
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Lewis Jack Gibson

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.12
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Alfie Devine

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.15
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.14
    090%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Robbie Brady

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.19
    090%
    19%
    2+1%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.20
    090%
    19%
    2+1%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves43 playersHighest: Sam Johnstone, 2.99 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Sam Johnstone

    GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.99
    O 2.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.99
    07%
    116%
    222%
    320%
    415%
    510%
    6+10%
  • José Pedro Malheiro de Sá

    GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.82
    O 2.5
    52%
    Model /90
    2.82
    08%
    118%
    222%
    320%
    414%
    59%
    6+9%
  • Daniel Iversen

    GK · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    2.40
    O 2.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.43
    011%
    122%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    56%
    6+5%
  • David Cornell

    GK · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    2.20
    O 2.5
    38%
    Model /90
    2.40
    016%
    123%
    223%
    317%
    411%
    56%
    6+4%
  • Jordan Storey

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ladislav Krejčí

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Emmanuel Agbadou

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Tote António Gomes

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Hugo Bueno

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Lewis Jack Gibson

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Andrew Hughes

    DEF · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jackson Tchatchoua

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Alistair McCann

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Alfie Devine

    MID · Preston North End

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Preston North End v Wolverhampton Wanderers — projections and referee context · Per90