Championship · England

MillwallvNorwich City

Saturday 22 August at 12:30The Denlineups not announced

Referee

Samuel Allison

43 matches on record

Fouls per game

23.0

-1% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formRuairi McConville over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 4 in a row
Last 20: 11/20 · 5/6 away · strip 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 3 1 1 · market 47% · best 2.38 (Bet365) · bet365 2.38
formKenny McLean over 0.5 shots: 9/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 3/4 away · strip 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 0 1 1 · market 67% · best 1.57 (Bet365) · bet365 1.57
formTristan Crama over 0.5 shots: 9/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 15/20 · 3/4 at home · strip 0 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 · market 76% · best 1.83 (Bet365) · bet365 1.83
formCamiel Neghli over 1.5 shots: 7/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 10/20 · 4/4 at home · strip 3 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 · market 74% · best 1.80 (Coral) · bet365 1.25
opponentNorwich City concede 9.0 shots a game — 26th most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. A hard place to get shots.
opponentMillwall concede 8.0 fouls a game — 27th most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. A hard place to get fouls.
opponentMillwall concede 11.8 tackles a game — 26th most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. A hard place to get tackles.
formMohamed Touré over 0.5 shots on target: 6/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 8/12 · strip 1 1 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 · market 68% · best 1.60 (10Bet) · bet365 1.50

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 4 live calls

Kellen Fisherover 0.50 Shots on target3.75 at bet365 · fair 3.40+10.3%
Jake Cooperover 1.50 Shots3.40 at bet365 · fair 3.20+6.3%
Kellen Fisherover 0.50 Shots1.67 at bet365 · fair 1.57+6.2%
Kenny McLeanover 1.50 Shots3.50 at bet365 · fair 3.30+6.1%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls65 playersHighest: Massimo Luongo, 1.28 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Massimo LuongoMID	Millwall	1.89	56provisional	1.28	36%	20	034% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.54	70provisional	1.27	36%	51	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.33	83provisional	1.24	35%	34	030% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.37	73provisional	1.17	33%	72	033% 135% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.45	67provisional	1.15	32%	28	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	1.25	67provisional	1.00	27%	33	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.08	79provisional	0.98	26%	82	039% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.99	87provisional	0.97	25%	68	039% 136% 218% 36% 41% 5+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.08	78provisional	0.96	25%	59	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Lyndon DykesFWD	Millwall	1.59	47provisional	0.95	25%	43	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 65 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 65 →

Shots65 playersHighest: Femi Azeez, 2.16 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	2.57	73provisional	2.16	60%	72	015% 124% 224% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	2.01	82provisional	1.86	54%	55	018% 128% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	2.15	70provisional	1.74	50%	51	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	2.08	67provisional	1.62	46%	33	024% 129% 223% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Mohamed TouréFWD	Norwich City	2.06	62provisional	1.52	44%	12	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.75	75provisional	1.51	43%	53	025% 131% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.89	67provisional	1.47	42%	28	028% 130% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	2.31	46provisional	1.31	35%	83	034% 131% 218% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Andre BrooksMID	Norwich City	1.68	63provisional	1.25	35%	65	032% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Lyndon DykesFWD	Millwall	2.07	47provisional	1.19	32%	43	039% 129% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%

10 of 65 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 65 →

Shots on target65 playersHighest: Josh Coburn, 0.78 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	0.96	70provisional	0.78	52%	51	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.90	73provisional	0.76	52%	72	048% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Mohamed TouréFWD	Norwich City	1.01	62provisional	0.74	51%	12	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	0.79	82provisional	0.74	51%	55	049% 134% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	0.81	67provisional	0.63	45%	28	055% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	1.03	46provisional	0.58	41%	83	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Thierno BalloFWD	Millwall	0.68	67provisional	0.53	40%	33	060% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	0.56	75provisional	0.48	37%	53	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Lyndon DykesFWD	Millwall	0.78	47provisional	0.44	33%	43	067% 125% 27% 32% 4+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	0.55	65provisional	0.42	33%	59	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%

10 of 65 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 65 →

Fouls won65 playersHighest: Pelle Mattsson, 1.73 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pelle MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.87	83provisional	1.73	51%	34	020% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.64	87provisional	1.59	47%	77	022% 132% 225% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.44	70provisional	1.15	32%	51	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.59	61provisional	1.14	31%	19	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	1.16	86provisional	1.12	31%	75	034% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.21	79provisional	1.08	29%	82	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aidomo EmakhuFWD	Millwall	1.60	52provisional	0.99	26%	63	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.09	78provisional	0.96	25%	59	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Emiliano MarcondesMID	Norwich City	1.75	45provisional	0.96	25%	49	043% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Josh SargentFWD	Norwich City	1.04	82provisional	0.96	25%	55	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 65 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 65 →

Saves4 playersHighest: Daniel Grimshaw, 3.22 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Daniel GrimshawGK	Norwich City	3.28	88provisional	3.22	60%	22	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
Vladan KovacevicGK	Norwich City	2.94	89provisional	2.91	53%	46	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Max CrocombeGK	Millwall	2.72	88provisional	2.67	48%	23	09% 120% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
Lukas JensenGK	Millwall	2.40	89provisional	2.38	42%	42	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.