Championship · England

Charlton AthleticvDerby County

Saturday 15 August at 15:00The Valleylineups not announced

Referee

Ben Speedie

10 matches on record — under 15, so the model falls back toward the league mean

Fouls per game

20.8

-8% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value — 2 published calls

Conor Coventryover 1.50 Shots5.00 at Bet365 · fair 4.09+22.3%
Joe Wardover 1.50 Shots5.00 at Bet365 · fair 4.27+17.0%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls48 playersHighest: Patrick Agyemang, 1.18 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Patrick Agyemang
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.43
033%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Carlton Morris
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.52
038%
130%
218%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Ebou Adams
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.22
037%
133%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ben Brereton
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.25
036%
135%
219%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
25
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
3.87
050%
126%
210%
36%
44%
52%
6+3%
Samuel Szmodics
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.03
039%
135%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Lewis Travis
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.09
041%
134%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Bobby Clark
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.20
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.08
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.11
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.20
046%
132%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.45
047%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Rhian Brewster
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.44
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Kayden Jackson
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.56
053%
127%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.94
048%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Kenzo Goudmijn
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.23
053%
128%
213%
35%
41%
5+0%
Matt Clarke
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.75
049%
134%
213%
33%
41%
5+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.77
049%
134%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Curtis Nelson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.78
049%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.40
053%
129%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Patrick AgyemangFWD	Derby County	1.43	75provisional	1.18	33%	37	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Carlton MorrisFWD	Derby County	1.52	69provisional	1.16	32%	31	038% 130% 218% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ebou AdamsMID	Derby County	1.22	79provisional	1.07	29%	67	037% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ben BreretonFWD	Derby County	1.25	77provisional	1.07	29%	40	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD	Derby County	3.87	25provisional	1.07	24%	39	050% 126% 210% 36% 44% 52% 6+3%
Samuel SzmodicsMID	Derby County	1.03	86provisional	0.99	26%	13	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lewis TravisMID	Derby County	1.09	80provisional	0.97	26%	27	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Bobby ClarkMID	Derby County	1.20	70provisional	0.94	24%	42	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.08	76provisional	0.91	23%	39	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	1.11	73provisional	0.90	23%	40	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.20	66provisional	0.87	22%	45	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.45	53provisional	0.86	22%	38	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Rhian BrewsterFWD	Derby County	1.44	51provisional	0.81	20%	29	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Kayden JacksonFWD	Derby County	1.56	45provisional	0.79	20%	65	053% 127% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.94	74provisional	0.77	19%	46	048% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kenzo GoudmijnMID	Derby County	1.23	55provisional	0.75	19%	44	053% 128% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%
Matt ClarkeDEF	Derby County	0.75	88provisional	0.74	17%	61	049% 134% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.77	86provisional	0.74	17%	46	049% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Curtis NelsonDEF	Derby County	0.78	85provisional	0.74	17%	29	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.40	47provisional	0.74	18%	33	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles48 playersHighest: Ebou Adams, 2.05 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Ebou Adams
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
2.05
O 1.5
59%
Model /90
2.33
016%
125%
224%
318%
410%
55%
6+3%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.75
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.16
021%
128%
224%
315%
47%
53%
6+1%
Lewis Travis
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.72
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
1.94
021%
129%
224%
315%
47%
53%
6+1%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.67
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
1.99
022%
129%
224%
314%
47%
53%
6+1%
Samuel Szmodics
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.63
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
1.71
020%
132%
226%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Bobby Clark
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.88
027%
131%
222%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.56
027%
132%
223%
312%
45%
51%
6+0%
Karoy Anderson
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.31
032%
129%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.65
028%
133%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Matt Clarke
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.37
027%
135%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Joe Ward
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.76
033%
129%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Derry John Murkin
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.44
028%
134%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
James Bree
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.45
029%
134%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Curtis Nelson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.33
030%
134%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sondre Klingen Langås
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.37
031%
134%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Amari'i Bell
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.37
031%
135%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Dion Sanderson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.30
032%
134%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.26
031%
135%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Kenzo Goudmijn
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.89
039%
128%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+0%
Luke Chambers
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.49
033%
136%
220%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ebou AdamsMID	Derby County	2.33	79provisional	2.05	59%	67	016% 125% 224% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	2.16	73provisional	1.75	51%	40	021% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Lewis TravisMID	Derby County	1.94	80provisional	1.72	50%	27	021% 129% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.99	76provisional	1.67	49%	39	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Samuel SzmodicsMID	Derby County	1.71	86provisional	1.63	48%	13	020% 132% 226% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Bobby ClarkMID	Derby County	1.88	70provisional	1.47	42%	42	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.56	81provisional	1.42	41%	37	027% 132% 223% 312% 45% 51% 6+0%
Karoy AndersonMID	Charlton Athletic	2.31	54provisional	1.38	38%	10	032% 129% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.65	74provisional	1.36	39%	46	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Matt ClarkeDEF	Derby County	1.37	88provisional	1.34	39%	61	027% 135% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Joe WardMID	Derby County	1.76	68provisional	1.34	39%	45	033% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Derry John MurkinDEF	Derby County	1.44	82provisional	1.31	38%	12	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
James BreeDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.45	80provisional	1.29	37%	21	029% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Curtis NelsonDEF	Derby County	1.33	85provisional	1.26	36%	29	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sondre Klingen LangåsDEF	Derby County	1.37	81provisional	1.24	35%	38	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Amari'i BellDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.37	79provisional	1.21	34%	34	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dion SandersonDEF	Derby County	1.30	83provisional	1.20	34%	38	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.26	86provisional	1.20	34%	46	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kenzo GoudmijnMID	Derby County	1.89	55provisional	1.16	33%	44	039% 128% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Luke ChambersDEF	Charlton Athletic	1.49	69provisional	1.14	31%	18	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots48 playersHighest: Patrick Agyemang, 1.82 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Patrick Agyemang
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.82
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.19
021%
128%
223%
314%
48%
54%
6+3%
Ben Brereton
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.75
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
2.05
021%
129%
223%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.64
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.25
027%
128%
220%
312%
47%
53%
6+2%
Carlton Morris
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.64
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.15
029%
126%
220%
313%
47%
53%
6+2%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.39
032%
130%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Rhian Brewster
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.22
036%
130%
218%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
2.36
038%
129%
217%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Robert Apter
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
2.43
041%
126%
216%
39%
45%
52%
6+1%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.47
034%
132%
219%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Samuel Szmodics
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.23
034%
134%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Kayden Jackson
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.13
045%
127%
214%
37%
44%
52%
6+1%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.24
040%
133%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Ebou Adams
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.13
041%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Travis
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.11
041%
133%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Bobby Clark
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.23
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.16
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Corey Taylor
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.62
047%
130%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+1%
Joe Ward
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.19
047%
130%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
25
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
3.28
055%
125%
29%
35%
43%
52%
6+2%
Curtis Nelson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
0.94
044%
133%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Patrick AgyemangFWD	Derby County	2.19	75provisional	1.82	51%	37	021% 128% 223% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Ben BreretonFWD	Derby County	2.05	77provisional	1.75	49%	40	021% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.25	66provisional	1.64	45%	45	027% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Carlton MorrisFWD	Derby County	2.15	69provisional	1.64	45%	31	029% 126% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.39	53provisional	1.41	38%	38	032% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Rhian BrewsterFWD	Derby County	2.22	51provisional	1.25	34%	29	036% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.36	47provisional	1.24	33%	33	038% 129% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Robert ApterFWD	Charlton Athletic	2.43	45provisional	1.22	33%	13	041% 126% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.47	74provisional	1.21	33%	46	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Samuel SzmodicsMID	Derby County	1.23	86provisional	1.17	32%	13	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kayden JacksonFWD	Derby County	2.13	45provisional	1.08	28%	65	045% 127% 214% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.24	76provisional	1.04	28%	39	040% 133% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ebou AdamsMID	Derby County	1.13	79provisional	0.99	26%	67	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lewis TravisMID	Derby County	1.11	80provisional	0.98	26%	27	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Bobby ClarkMID	Derby County	1.23	70provisional	0.96	25%	42	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	1.16	73provisional	0.94	24%	40	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Corey TaylorFWD	Derby County	2.62	32provisional	0.93	23%	21	047% 130% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%
Joe WardMID	Derby County	1.19	68provisional	0.90	24%	45	047% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD	Derby County	3.28	25provisional	0.90	21%	39	055% 125% 29% 35% 43% 52% 6+2%
Curtis NelsonDEF	Derby County	0.94	85provisional	0.90	23%	29	044% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target48 playersHighest: Carlton Morris, 0.68 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Carlton Morris
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.68
O 0.5
45%
Model /90
0.89
055%
129%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%
Ben Brereton
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.66
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
0.78
053%
132%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Patrick Agyemang
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.66
O 0.5
46%
Model /90
0.80
054%
131%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.61
O 0.5
42%
Model /90
1.17
058%
127%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Kayden Jackson
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.47
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.92
067%
123%
27%
32%
41%
5+0%
Robert Apter
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.46
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.92
067%
124%
27%
32%
4+1%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.46
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.78
065%
126%
27%
32%
4+0%
Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.46
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.63
065%
126%
27%
31%
4+0%
Rhian Brewster
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.43
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.76
067%
125%
26%
31%
4+0%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
25
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
1.45
073%
119%
26%
32%
41%
5+0%
Samuel Szmodics
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.41
068%
126%
25%
31%
4+0%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.37
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.45
070%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.39
073%
122%
24%
3+1%
Corey Taylor
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.92
074%
120%
24%
31%
4+0%
Lewis Travis
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.36
073%
122%
24%
3+1%
Matt Godden
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
1.06
075%
120%
24%
31%
4+0%
Curtis Nelson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.31
075%
121%
23%
3+0%
Andreas Weimann
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
28
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.91
077%
119%
24%
31%
4+0%
Joe Ward
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.37
077%
119%
23%
3+1%
Dajaune Brown
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
24
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.94
079%
117%
23%
31%
4+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Carlton MorrisFWD	Derby County	0.89	69provisional	0.68	45%	31	055% 129% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ben BreretonFWD	Derby County	0.78	77provisional	0.66	47%	40	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Patrick AgyemangFWD	Derby County	0.80	75provisional	0.66	46%	37	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.17	47provisional	0.61	42%	33	058% 127% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Kayden JacksonFWD	Derby County	0.92	45provisional	0.47	33%	65	067% 123% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Robert ApterFWD	Charlton Athletic	0.92	45provisional	0.46	33%	13	067% 124% 27% 32% 4+1%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	0.78	53provisional	0.46	35%	38	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	0.63	66provisional	0.46	35%	45	065% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Rhian BrewsterFWD	Derby County	0.76	51provisional	0.43	33%	29	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD	Derby County	1.45	25provisional	0.40	27%	39	073% 119% 26% 32% 41% 5+0%
Samuel SzmodicsMID	Derby County	0.41	86provisional	0.40	32%	13	068% 126% 25% 31% 4+0%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.45	74provisional	0.37	30%	46	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.39	76provisional	0.33	27%	39	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Corey TaylorFWD	Derby County	0.92	32provisional	0.32	26%	21	074% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Lewis TravisMID	Derby County	0.36	80provisional	0.32	27%	27	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Matt GoddenFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.06	27provisional	0.32	25%	11	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Curtis NelsonDEF	Derby County	0.31	85provisional	0.29	25%	29	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Andreas WeimannFWD	Derby County	0.91	28provisional	0.28	23%	25	077% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%
Joe WardMID	Derby County	0.37	68provisional	0.28	23%	45	077% 119% 23% 3+1%
Dajaune BrownFWD	Derby County	0.94	24provisional	0.25	21%	16	079% 117% 23% 31% 4+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won48 playersHighest: Ebou Adams, 1.32 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Ebou Adams
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.51
032%
131%
220%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Patrick Agyemang
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.48
033%
133%
220%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Lewis Travis
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.29
037%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Ben Brereton
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.27
037%
134%
218%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Carlton Morris
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.43
041%
130%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Samuel Szmodics
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.10
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.18
041%
133%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.19
041%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tyreece Campbell
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.34
043%
131%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Miles Leaburn
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.63
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kayden Jackson
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.90
049%
127%
213%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Bobby Clark
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.12
046%
132%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Amari'i Bell
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
0.96
046%
133%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.05
046%
132%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kenzo Goudmijn
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.36
050%
128%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.89
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.84
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Rhian Brewster
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.42
050%
131%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Charlie Kelman
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.49
052%
129%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Robert Apter
FWD · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.53
054%
127%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ebou AdamsMID	Derby County	1.51	79provisional	1.32	37%	67	032% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Patrick AgyemangFWD	Derby County	1.48	75provisional	1.23	34%	37	033% 133% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Lewis TravisMID	Derby County	1.29	80provisional	1.14	31%	27	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ben BreretonFWD	Derby County	1.27	77provisional	1.09	29%	40	037% 134% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Carlton MorrisFWD	Derby County	1.43	69provisional	1.09	30%	31	041% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Samuel SzmodicsMID	Derby County	1.10	86provisional	1.05	28%	13	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.18	76provisional	0.99	26%	39	041% 133% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	1.19	74provisional	0.98	26%	46	041% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tyreece CampbellFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.34	66provisional	0.98	26%	45	043% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Miles LeaburnFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.63	53provisional	0.97	25%	38	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kayden JacksonFWD	Derby County	1.90	45provisional	0.96	25%	65	049% 127% 213% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Bobby ClarkMID	Derby County	1.12	70provisional	0.88	22%	42	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Amari'i BellDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.96	79provisional	0.85	21%	34	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	1.05	73provisional	0.85	21%	40	046% 132% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kenzo GoudmijnMID	Derby County	1.36	55provisional	0.84	22%	44	050% 128% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.89	81provisional	0.80	20%	37	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.84	86provisional	0.80	20%	46	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Rhian BrewsterFWD	Derby County	1.42	51provisional	0.80	20%	29	050% 131% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Charlie KelmanFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.49	47provisional	0.78	20%	33	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Robert ApterFWD	Charlton Athletic	1.53	45provisional	0.77	20%	13	054% 127% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards48 playersHighest: Lewis Travis, 0.17 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Lewis Travis
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.19
085%
114%
2+1%
Samuel Szmodics
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.17
085%
113%
2+1%
Ebou Adams
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Bobby Clark
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.18
087%
112%
2+1%
Liam Thompson
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.20
088%
111%
2+1%
Matt Clarke
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Greg Docherty
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
James Bree
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Dion Sanderson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
111%
2+1%
Conor Coventry
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
111%
2+1%
Sondre Klingen Langås
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
111%
2+1%
Ben Brereton
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
111%
2+1%
Jacob Widell Zetterström
GK · Derby County
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.12
089%
110%
2+1%
Kayne Ramsey
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
110%
2+1%
Derry John Murkin
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
110%
2+1%
Carlton Morris
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
110%
2+1%
Joe Ward
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.15
090%
110%
2+1%
Curtis Nelson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.12
090%
110%
2+1%
Sonny Carey
MID · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.13
090%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Lewis TravisMID	Derby County	0.19	80provisional	0.17	15%	27	085% 114% 2+1%
Samuel SzmodicsMID	Derby County	0.17	86provisional	0.16	15%	13	085% 113% 2+1%
Ebou AdamsMID	Derby County	0.16	79provisional	0.14	13%	67	087% 112% 2+1%
Bobby ClarkMID	Derby County	0.18	70provisional	0.14	13%	42	087% 112% 2+1%
Liam ThompsonMID	Derby County	0.20	59provisional	0.13	12%	45	088% 111% 2+1%
Matt ClarkeDEF	Derby County	0.13	88provisional	0.13	12%	61	088% 111% 2+1%
Greg DochertyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.15	76provisional	0.13	12%	39	088% 111% 2+1%
James BreeDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.14	80provisional	0.13	12%	21	088% 111% 2+1%
Dion SandersonDEF	Derby County	0.14	83provisional	0.13	12%	38	088% 111% 2+1%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.13	86provisional	0.12	11%	46	089% 111% 2+1%
Conor CoventryMID	Charlton Athletic	0.15	73provisional	0.12	11%	40	089% 111% 2+1%
Sondre Klingen LangåsDEF	Derby County	0.14	81provisional	0.12	11%	38	089% 111% 2+1%
Ben BreretonFWD	Derby County	0.14	77provisional	0.12	11%	40	089% 111% 2+1%
Jacob Widell ZetterströmGK	Derby County	0.12	90provisional	0.12	11%	72	089% 110% 2+1%
Kayne RamseyDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.13	81provisional	0.12	11%	37	089% 110% 2+1%
Derry John MurkinDEF	Derby County	0.13	82provisional	0.11	11%	12	089% 110% 2+1%
Carlton MorrisFWD	Derby County	0.15	69provisional	0.11	11%	31	089% 110% 2+1%
Joe WardMID	Derby County	0.15	68provisional	0.11	10%	45	090% 110% 2+1%
Curtis NelsonDEF	Derby County	0.12	85provisional	0.11	10%	29	090% 110% 2+1%
Sonny CareyMID	Charlton Athletic	0.13	74provisional	0.11	10%	46	090% 110% 2+1%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves48 playersHighest: Jacob Widell Zetterström, 2.98 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Jacob Widell Zetterström
GK · Derby County
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.98
O 2.5
55%
Model /90
2.98
07%
117%
222%
320%
415%
510%
6+10%
Josh Vickers
GK · Derby County
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.81
O 2.5
51%
Model /90
2.82
08%
118%
223%
320%
414%
59%
6+9%
Thomas Kaminski
GK · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.36
O 2.5
41%
Model /90
2.36
012%
123%
225%
319%
412%
56%
6+5%
Matt Clarke
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Samuel Szmodics
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Curtis Nelson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Sondre Klingen Langås
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Derry John Murkin
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Dion Sanderson
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lewis Travis
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ebou Adams
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ben Brereton
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Patrick Agyemang
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Bobby Clark
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Joe Ward
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Carlton Morris
FWD · Derby County
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Craig Forsyth
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Max Johnston
DEF · Derby County
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Liam Thompson
MID · Derby County
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lloyd Jones
DEF · Charlton Athletic
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Jacob Widell ZetterströmGK	Derby County	2.98	90provisional	2.98	55%	72	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 510% 6+10%
Josh VickersGK	Derby County	2.82	90provisional	2.81	51%	13	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Thomas KaminskiGK	Charlton Athletic	2.36	90provisional	2.36	41%	37	012% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Matt ClarkeDEF	Derby County	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	61	0100% 1+0%
Samuel SzmodicsMID	Derby County	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	13	0100% 1+0%
Curtis NelsonDEF	Derby County	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	29	0100% 1+0%
Sondre Klingen LangåsDEF	Derby County	0.00	81provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Derry John MurkinDEF	Derby County	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	12	0100% 1+0%
Dion SandersonDEF	Derby County	0.00	83provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Lewis TravisMID	Derby County	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	27	0100% 1+0%
Ebou AdamsMID	Derby County	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Ben BreretonFWD	Derby County	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	40	0100% 1+0%
Patrick AgyemangFWD	Derby County	0.00	75provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Bobby ClarkMID	Derby County	0.00	70provisional	0.00	—	42	0100% 1+0%
Joe WardMID	Derby County	0.00	68provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%
Carlton MorrisFWD	Derby County	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	31	0100% 1+0%
Craig ForsythDEF	Derby County	0.00	64provisional	0.00	—	58	0100% 1+0%
Max JohnstonDEF	Derby County	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	15	0100% 1+0%
Liam ThompsonMID	Derby County	0.00	59provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%
Lloyd JonesDEF	Charlton Athletic	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.