La Liga · Spain

Real MadridvReal Sociedad

Wednesday 26 August at 20:00Estadio Santiago Bernabéulineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls47 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 1.74 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	2.09	75provisional	1.74	50%	61	022% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	2.52	58provisional	1.63	47%	43	024% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+1%
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.63	82provisional	1.48	43%	50	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.29	51provisional	1.29	36%	42	031% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.53	74provisional	1.26	36%	28	031% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.82	61provisional	1.23	34%	11	034% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	1.34	80provisional	1.19	33%	26	033% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.81	57provisional	1.15	32%	25	038% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.55	67provisional	1.15	32%	26	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	1.37	75provisional	1.14	32%	51	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Tackles47 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 1.79 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	2.15	75provisional	1.79	50%	61	023% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.51	76provisional	1.27	35%	67	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	1.96	55provisional	1.19	32%	33	039% 129% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	1.29	75provisional	1.08	29%	51	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	1.12	82provisional	1.02	27%	62	039% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Éder MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	1.23	74provisional	1.02	27%	26	039% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.20	74provisional	0.99	26%	28	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.23	67provisional	0.91	23%	26	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ferland MendyDEF	Real Madrid	1.26	64provisional	0.90	24%	14	046% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Federico ValverdeMID	Real Madrid	0.93	84provisional	0.87	22%	67	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Shots47 playersHighest: Kylian Mbappé, 4.85 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	5.14	85provisional	4.85	92%	63	02% 16% 210% 314% 416% 515% 6+37%
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	3.46	77provisional	2.96	74%	61	09% 117% 220% 319% 414% 510% 6+11%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.43	75provisional	2.02	57%	51	018% 125% 223% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	3.04	53provisional	1.80	48%	32	025% 126% 220% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Arda GülerMID	Real Madrid	2.80	54provisional	1.68	46%	43	027% 127% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Federico ValverdeMID	Real Madrid	1.75	84provisional	1.63	47%	67	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	1.89	72provisional	1.52	43%	60	026% 131% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Gonçalo GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.87	57provisional	1.19	33%	26	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	1.14	82provisional	1.04	28%	62	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Éder MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	1.23	74provisional	1.02	27%	26	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	1.39	65provisional	1.01	27%	50	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luka SucicMID	Real Sociedad	1.53	56provisional	0.95	25%	36	044% 131% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	1.42	58provisional	0.92	24%	43	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	1.59	51provisional	0.89	23%	42	044% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Orri ÓskarssonFWD	Real Sociedad	1.88	41provisional	0.86	22%	24	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Brahim DíazFWD	Real Madrid	1.77	43provisional	0.85	22%	33	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
EndrickFWD	Real Madrid	4.11	18provisional	0.81	18%	4	055% 127% 29% 34% 42% 51% 6+1%
Antonio RüdigerDEF	Real Madrid	0.89	81provisional	0.80	19%	43	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Thiago PitarchMID	Real Madrid	1.16	60provisional	0.77	19%	8	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Carlos SolerMID	Real Sociedad	0.96	70provisional	0.76	18%	30	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Dean HuijsenDEF	Real Madrid	0.84	73provisional	0.68	15%	25	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Arsen ZakharyanMID	Real Sociedad	2.24	26provisional	0.65	14%	5	056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Pablo MarínMID	Real Sociedad	1.16	48provisional	0.62	14%	35	058% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	0.94	55provisional	0.57	13%	33	060% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.14	24provisional	0.56	11%	3	061% 128% 28% 32% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jon MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	0.51	83provisional	0.47	8%	38	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Beñat TurrientesMID	Real Sociedad	0.88	48provisional	0.46	9%	31	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Dani CeballosMID	Real Madrid	0.93	44provisional	0.46	9%	21	067% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Yangel HerreraMID	Real Sociedad	0.90	44provisional	0.44	9%	7	067% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	0.44	83provisional	0.41	7%	26	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Raúl AsencioDEF	Real Madrid	0.50	73provisional	0.41	7%	41	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	0.49	74provisional	0.40	7%	28	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Daniel CarvajalDEF	Real Madrid	0.57	63provisional	0.40	7%	19	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDEF	Real Madrid	0.65	55provisional	0.40	7%	14	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	0.43	80provisional	0.38	6%	26	069% 125% 25% 3+1%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	0.45	75provisional	0.37	6%	61	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	0.41	76provisional	0.34	5%	67	071% 123% 24% 3+1%
David AlabaDEF	Real Madrid	0.66	41provisional	0.30	5%	10	076% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.32	82provisional	0.29	4%	50	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Aihen MuñozDEF	Real Sociedad	0.50	47provisional	0.26	4%	24	078% 118% 23% 3+1%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.35	57provisional	0.22	3%	25	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	0.27	67provisional	0.20	2%	26	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Ferland MendyDEF	Real Madrid	0.28	64provisional	0.20	2%	14	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.27	61provisional	0.18	2%	11	084% 115% 22% 3+0%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	14	0100% 1+0%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	62	0100% 1+0%
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%

All 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won47 playersHighest: Vinicius Junior, 2.44 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	2.86	77provisional	2.44	66%	61	013% 121% 223% 318% 412% 57% 6+6%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.72	75provisional	2.26	62%	51	015% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+5%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	2.38	65provisional	1.73	49%	50	023% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	2.44	53provisional	1.45	40%	32	032% 129% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	2.29	55provisional	1.39	38%	33	034% 129% 218% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Brahim DíazFWD	Real Madrid	2.80	43provisional	1.35	36%	33	035% 129% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	1.37	85provisional	1.30	37%	63	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	1.95	58provisional	1.27	35%	43	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	1.32	83provisional	1.22	35%	26	033% 132% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Arda GülerMID	Real Madrid	1.98	54provisional	1.19	33%	43	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Cards47 playersHighest: Igor Zubeldia, 0.28 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.30	82provisional	0.28	24%	50	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	75provisional	0.24	21%	61	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	0.27	80provisional	0.24	21%	26	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	0.28	74provisional	0.23	20%	28	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	83provisional	0.21	19%	38	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.30	61provisional	0.20	18%	11	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	0.30	58provisional	0.19	17%	43	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Dean HuijsenDEF	Real Madrid	0.24	73provisional	0.19	17%	25	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	57provisional	0.18	16%	25	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Éder MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	0.22	74provisional	0.18	17%	26	083% 115% 21% 3+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Álex Remiro, 3.22 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	3.22	90provisional	3.22	60%	73	06% 114% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	2.35	90provisional	2.35	41%	14	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	2.28	90provisional	2.28	39%	62	012% 124% 225% 319% 411% 56% 6+4%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.