La Liga · Spain

Real MadridvReal Sociedad

Wednesday 26 August at 20:00Estadio Santiago Bernabéulineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Brais Méndez Portela, 2.04 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Brais Méndez PortelaMID	Real Sociedad	2.80	66provisional	2.04	59%	13	014% 126% 226% 318% 49% 54% 6+2%
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	2.02	75provisional	1.69	49%	61	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Igor Zubeldía ElorzaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.58	82provisional	1.44	42%	50	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+0%
Ander Barrenetxea MuguruzaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.23	51provisional	1.25	35%	42	032% 133% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMID	Real Sociedad	1.48	74provisional	1.22	34%	28	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon Pacheco DozagaratDEF	Real Sociedad	1.77	61provisional	1.19	33%	11	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Javier López CarballoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.50	67provisional	1.12	31%	26	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	1.33	75provisional	1.11	31%	51	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Éder Gabriel MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	1.33	74provisional	1.10	30%	26	035% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sergio Gómez MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	1.30	76provisional	1.10	30%	67	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Jon Mikel Aramburu Mejías, 2.87 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	3.45	75provisional	2.87	70%	61	012% 118% 219% 317% 413% 59% 6+12%
Sergio Gómez MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	2.68	76provisional	2.25	60%	67	016% 123% 222% 316% 410% 56% 6+5%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	3.33	55provisional	2.02	51%	33	025% 125% 218% 313% 49% 55% 6+6%
Daniel Ceballos FernándezMID	Real Madrid	3.33	50provisional	1.85	46%	7	031% 124% 216% 311% 48% 55% 6+6%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	1.90	82provisional	1.72	49%	62	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.04	75provisional	1.69	48%	51	024% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMID	Real Sociedad	2.00	74provisional	1.64	46%	28	024% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Javier López CarballoDEF	Real Sociedad	2.09	67provisional	1.55	43%	26	027% 130% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	1.59	83provisional	1.48	42%	26	028% 129% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Igor Zubeldía ElorzaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.56	82provisional	1.43	40%	50	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Kylian Mbappé Lottin, 4.70 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kylian Mbappé LottinFWD	Real Madrid	4.98	85provisional	4.70	91%	63	02% 16% 211% 315% 416% 515% 6+34%
Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira JúniorFWD	Real Madrid	3.36	77provisional	2.87	73%	61	010% 118% 221% 319% 414% 59% 6+10%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.36	75provisional	1.96	55%	51	019% 126% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Rodrygo Silva de GoesFWD	Real Madrid	2.95	53provisional	1.75	47%	32	026% 127% 220% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Arda GulerMID	Real Madrid	2.71	54provisional	1.63	45%	43	028% 127% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Federico Santiago Valverde DipettaMID	Real Madrid	1.70	84provisional	1.58	46%	67	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mikel Oyarzabal UgarteFWD	Real Sociedad	1.79	72provisional	1.44	41%	60	028% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gonçalo Manuel Ganchinho GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.77	57provisional	1.13	31%	26	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	1.11	82provisional	1.01	27%	62	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Éder Gabriel MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	1.20	74provisional	0.99	26%	26	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior, 2.38 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira JúniorFWD	Real Madrid	2.78	77provisional	2.38	65%	61	013% 122% 223% 318% 412% 57% 6+5%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.64	75provisional	2.20	61%	51	016% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+4%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	2.34	65provisional	1.70	48%	50	023% 129% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Rodrygo Silva de GoesFWD	Real Madrid	2.37	53provisional	1.41	39%	32	032% 129% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	2.23	55provisional	1.35	37%	33	034% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Brahim Abdelkader DiazFWD	Real Madrid	2.72	43provisional	1.31	35%	33	036% 129% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Daniel Ceballos FernándezMID	Real Madrid	2.31	50provisional	1.28	35%	7	039% 126% 216% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kylian Mbappé LottinFWD	Real Madrid	1.34	85provisional	1.26	36%	63	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	1.29	83provisional	1.19	34%	26	034% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Brais Méndez PortelaMID	Real Sociedad	1.61	66provisional	1.17	32%	13	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Arda GulerMID	Real Madrid	1.93	54provisional	1.16	32%	43	038% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	1.25	75provisional	1.04	28%	61	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gonçalo Manuel Ganchinho GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.50	57provisional	0.95	25%	26	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Raúl Asencio del RosarioDEF	Real Madrid	1.12	73provisional	0.92	24%	41	043% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Yangel Clemente Herrera RaveloMID	Real Sociedad	1.87	44provisional	0.91	24%	7	047% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Thiago Pitarch PinarMID	Real Madrid	1.36	60provisional	0.90	23%	8	044% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	0.96	82provisional	0.87	22%	62	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Mikel Oyarzabal UgarteFWD	Real Sociedad	1.04	72provisional	0.83	21%	60	046% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Beñat Turrientes ImazMID	Real Sociedad	1.47	48provisional	0.78	19%	31	050% 130% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMID	Real Sociedad	0.94	74provisional	0.77	19%	28	048% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Javier López CarballoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.03	67provisional	0.77	19%	26	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Éder Gabriel MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	0.92	74provisional	0.76	18%	26	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ander Barrenetxea MuguruzaFWD	Real Sociedad	1.24	51provisional	0.70	16%	42	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Pablo Marín TejadaMID	Real Sociedad	1.21	48provisional	0.65	15%	35	056% 128% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Carlos Soler BarragánMID	Real Sociedad	0.78	70provisional	0.61	13%	30	056% 131% 210% 32% 4+1%
Ferland MendyDEF	Real Madrid	0.82	64provisional	0.58	13%	14	058% 129% 210% 32% 4+1%
Federico Santiago Valverde DipettaMID	Real Madrid	0.57	84provisional	0.53	10%	67	059% 130% 28% 32% 4+0%
Dean Donny HuijsenDEF	Real Madrid	0.64	73provisional	0.51	10%	25	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDEF	Real Madrid	0.71	55provisional	0.44	8%	14	067% 125% 27% 31% 4+0%
Luka SučićMID	Real Sociedad	0.70	56provisional	0.43	8%	36	066% 125% 27% 31% 4+0%
Antonio RüdigerDEF	Real Madrid	0.48	81provisional	0.43	7%	43	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Sergio Gómez MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	0.48	76provisional	0.40	7%	67	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Orri Steinn ÓskarssonFWD	Real Sociedad	0.83	41provisional	0.38	7%	24	070% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaFWD	Real Madrid	1.87	18provisional	0.37	7%	4	073% 120% 25% 32% 41% 5+0%
Jon Pacheco DozagaratDEF	Real Sociedad	0.50	61provisional	0.34	5%	11	072% 122% 24% 3+1%
Aihen Muñoz CapellánDEF	Real Sociedad	0.61	47provisional	0.32	5%	24	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Arsen ZakharyanMID	Real Sociedad	1.10	26provisional	0.32	5%	5	074% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Jon Martín VicenteDEF	Real Sociedad	0.32	83provisional	0.29	4%	38	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Igor Zubeldía ElorzaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.32	82provisional	0.29	4%	50	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Alejandro Remiro GargalloGK	Real Sociedad	0.16	90provisional	0.16	1%	73	085% 114% 2+1%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	0.10	90provisional	0.10	0%	14	091% 19% 2+0%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	0.07	90provisional	0.07	0%	62	093% 17% 2+0%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Cards42 playersHighest: Igor Zubeldía Elorza, 0.27 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Igor Zubeldía ElorzaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	82provisional	0.27	23%	50	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Brais Méndez PortelaMID	Real Sociedad	0.36	66provisional	0.26	23%	13	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	0.28	75provisional	0.24	21%	61	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMID	Real Sociedad	0.26	74provisional	0.22	19%	28	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jon Martín VicenteDEF	Real Sociedad	0.21	83provisional	0.20	18%	38	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Jon Pacheco DozagaratDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	61provisional	0.19	17%	11	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Dean Donny HuijsenDEF	Real Madrid	0.23	73provisional	0.18	17%	25	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
Éder Gabriel MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	0.21	74provisional	0.17	16%	26	084% 114% 2+1%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	0.19	82provisional	0.17	16%	62	084% 114% 2+1%
Ander Barrenetxea MuguruzaFWD	Real Sociedad	0.31	51provisional	0.17	16%	42	084% 114% 21% 3+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Alejandro Remiro Gargallo, 3.05 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Alejandro Remiro GargalloGK	Real Sociedad	3.05	90provisional	3.05	56%	73	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	2.33	90provisional	2.33	40%	14	012% 123% 225% 319% 411% 56% 6+4%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	2.25	90provisional	2.25	39%	62	013% 124% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.