La Liga · Spain

Real MadridvReal Sociedad

Wednesday 26 August at 20:00Estadio Santiago Bernabéulineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls47 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 1.74 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	2.09	75provisional	1.74	50%	61	022% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	2.51	58provisional	1.63	47%	43	024% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+1%
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.63	82provisional	1.48	43%	50	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.29	51provisional	1.29	36%	42	031% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.53	74provisional	1.26	36%	28	031% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.82	61provisional	1.23	34%	11	034% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	1.34	80provisional	1.19	33%	26	033% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.80	59provisional	1.17	32%	25	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.55	67provisional	1.15	32%	26	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	1.37	75provisional	1.14	32%	51	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Tackles47 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 2.95 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	3.54	75provisional	2.95	71%	61	012% 118% 219% 317% 413% 59% 6+13%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	2.74	76provisional	2.31	61%	67	016% 123% 222% 317% 411% 56% 6+6%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	3.41	55provisional	2.07	52%	33	024% 124% 218% 313% 49% 55% 6+7%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	1.94	82provisional	1.76	50%	62	022% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.08	75provisional	1.73	49%	51	024% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	2.05	74provisional	1.68	47%	28	023% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	2.14	67provisional	1.59	44%	26	026% 129% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Dani CeballosMID	Real Madrid	3.24	44provisional	1.59	40%	21	034% 126% 216% 310% 46% 54% 6+4%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	1.63	83provisional	1.51	43%	26	028% 129% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.60	82provisional	1.46	42%	50	027% 132% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Shots47 playersHighest: Kylian Mbappé, 4.85 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	5.14	85provisional	4.85	92%	63	02% 16% 210% 314% 416% 515% 6+37%
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	3.47	77provisional	2.97	74%	61	09% 117% 220% 319% 414% 510% 6+11%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.44	75provisional	2.02	57%	51	018% 125% 223% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	3.04	53provisional	1.80	48%	32	025% 126% 220% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Arda GülerMID	Real Madrid	2.80	54provisional	1.68	46%	43	027% 127% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Federico ValverdeMID	Real Madrid	1.76	84provisional	1.64	47%	67	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	1.90	72provisional	1.52	44%	60	026% 131% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Gonçalo GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.88	57provisional	1.19	33%	26	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	1.14	82provisional	1.04	28%	62	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Éder MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	1.23	74provisional	1.02	27%	26	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Fouls won47 playersHighest: Vinicius Junior, 2.43 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	2.84	77provisional	2.43	66%	61	013% 122% 223% 318% 412% 57% 6+6%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.70	75provisional	2.25	62%	51	016% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	2.42	65provisional	1.76	49%	50	023% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	2.43	53provisional	1.44	39%	32	032% 129% 219% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	2.28	55provisional	1.38	38%	33	034% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Brahim DíazFWD	Real Madrid	2.79	43provisional	1.34	36%	33	035% 129% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	1.37	85provisional	1.29	37%	63	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	1.98	58provisional	1.28	36%	43	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	1.32	83provisional	1.22	35%	26	033% 132% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Arda GülerMID	Real Madrid	1.97	54provisional	1.18	33%	43	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Cards47 playersHighest: Igor Zubeldia, 0.28 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.30	82provisional	0.28	24%	50	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	75provisional	0.24	21%	61	079% 119% 23% 3+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	0.27	80provisional	0.24	21%	26	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	0.27	74provisional	0.22	20%	28	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	83provisional	0.20	18%	38	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.30	61provisional	0.20	18%	11	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	0.30	58provisional	0.20	17%	43	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Dean HuijsenDEF	Real Madrid	0.23	73provisional	0.19	17%	25	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.28	57provisional	0.18	16%	25	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Éder MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	0.22	74provisional	0.18	16%	26	084% 115% 2+1%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	0.32	51provisional	0.18	16%	42	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	0.20	82provisional	0.18	16%	62	084% 115% 2+1%
Beñat TurrientesMID	Real Sociedad	0.31	48provisional	0.17	15%	31	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	67provisional	0.16	15%	26	085% 114% 2+1%
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	0.19	77provisional	0.16	15%	61	085% 114% 2+1%
Thiago PitarchMID	Real Madrid	0.24	60provisional	0.16	15%	8	085% 113% 2+1%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	0.19	76provisional	0.16	15%	67	085% 113% 2+1%
Yangel HerreraMID	Real Sociedad	0.32	44provisional	0.16	14%	7	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	0.16	83provisional	0.15	14%	26	086% 113% 2+1%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	0.17	75provisional	0.14	13%	51	087% 112% 2+1%
Carlos SolerMID	Real Sociedad	0.18	70provisional	0.14	13%	30	087% 112% 2+1%
Raúl AsencioDEF	Real Madrid	0.17	73provisional	0.14	13%	41	087% 112% 2+1%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	0.21	55provisional	0.13	12%	33	088% 111% 2+1%
Aihen MuñozDEF	Real Sociedad	0.23	47provisional	0.12	11%	24	089% 110% 2+1%
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDEF	Real Madrid	0.19	55provisional	0.12	11%	14	089% 110% 2+1%
Pablo MarínMID	Real Sociedad	0.22	48provisional	0.12	11%	35	089% 110% 2+1%
Dani CeballosMID	Real Madrid	0.22	44provisional	0.11	10%	21	090% 19% 2+1%
Antonio RüdigerDEF	Real Madrid	0.12	81provisional	0.11	10%	43	090% 110% 2+1%
Orri ÓskarssonFWD	Real Sociedad	0.23	41provisional	0.11	10%	24	090% 19% 2+1%
Luka SucicMID	Real Sociedad	0.16	56provisional	0.10	9%	36	091% 19% 2+1%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	0.14	65provisional	0.10	9%	50	091% 19% 2+1%
Gonçalo GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	0.16	57provisional	0.10	9%	26	091% 19% 2+1%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	0.12	72provisional	0.09	9%	60	091% 19% 2+0%
Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFWD	Real Sociedad	0.34	24provisional	0.09	8%	3	092% 18% 2+1%
Arsen ZakharyanMID	Real Sociedad	0.31	26provisional	0.09	8%	5	092% 18% 2+0%
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	0.09	85provisional	0.09	9%	63	091% 18% 2+0%
Federico ValverdeMID	Real Madrid	0.09	84provisional	0.08	8%	67	092% 18% 2+0%
Brahim DíazFWD	Real Madrid	0.17	43provisional	0.08	8%	33	092% 17% 2+0%
David AlabaDEF	Real Madrid	0.18	41provisional	0.08	8%	10	092% 17% 2+0%
Ferland MendyDEF	Real Madrid	0.11	64provisional	0.08	8%	14	092% 17% 2+0%
Daniel CarvajalDEF	Real Madrid	0.10	63provisional	0.07	7%	19	093% 17% 2+0%
Arda GülerMID	Real Madrid	0.11	54provisional	0.06	6%	43	094% 16% 2+0%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	0.10	53provisional	0.06	6%	32	094% 15% 2+0%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	0.05	90provisional	0.05	5%	62	095% 15% 2+0%
EndrickFWD	Real Madrid	0.22	18provisional	0.04	4%	4	096% 14% 2+0%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	0.02	90provisional	0.02	2%	14	098% 1+2%
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	0.01	90provisional	0.01	1%	73	099% 1+1%

All 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves3 playersHighest: Álex Remiro, 3.06 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	3.06	90provisional	3.06	57%	73	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	2.33	90provisional	2.33	41%	14	012% 123% 225% 319% 411% 56% 6+4%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	2.26	90provisional	2.26	39%	62	012% 124% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.