La Liga · Spain

Real BetisvReal Sociedad

Friday 21 August at 20:00Estadio La Cartuja de Sevillaexpected lineup

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formJon Martín over 0.5 tackles: 9/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 17/20 · 4/5 away · strip 2 0 1 2 2 1 1 4 1 1 · market 76% · best 1.36 (Parimatch) · bet365 1.29
formAbde Ezzalzouli over 0.5 shots on target: 8/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 3 0 1 · market 77% · best 1.47 (VirginBet) · bet365 1.25
formPablo Marín over 0.5 fouls won: 8/10 of his last 10, 3 in a row
Last 20: 12/20 · 4/4 away · strip 1 2 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 · market 74% · best 1.50 (Bet365) · bet365 1.50
formMikel Oyarzabal over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 11/20 · 4/5 away · strip 0 2 3 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 · market 69% · best 1.53 (PaddyPower) · bet365 1.44
opponentReal Sociedad concede 16.2 shots a game — 1st most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for Real Betis's shooters.
opponentReal Sociedad concede 5.4 shots on target a game — 2nd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for Real Betis's shooters.
formFran García over 0.5 fouls won: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 13/20 · 5/6 at home · strip 3 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 1 1 · market 75% · best 1.44 (10Bet) · bet365 1.40
formJon Aramburu over 0.5 fouls won: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 13/20 · 4/5 away · strip 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 · market 78% · best 1.33 (Bet365) · bet365 1.33

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 14 live calls

Antonyover 1.50 Tackles2.38 at bet365 · fair 1.73+37.3%
Pablo Fornalsover 1.50 Tackles2.75 at bet365 · fair 2.05+34.1%
Cucho Hernándezover 4.50 Shots3.50 at bet365 · fair 2.88+21.5%
Gonçalo Guedesover 1.50 Shots1.67 at bet365 · fair 1.42+17.4%
Natanover 0.50 Fouls won2.10 at bet365 · fair 1.83+14.6%
Abde Ezzalzouliover 2.50 Shots1.50 at Sky Bet · fair 1.33+12.8%
Pablo Fornalsover 0.50 Shots1.30 at Paddy Power · fair 1.17+11.1%
Mikel Oyarzabalover 0.50 Shots1.20 at Paddy Power · fair 1.08+11.1%
Marc Rocaover 0.50 Fouls won1.53 at bet365 · fair 1.40+9.5%
Gonçalo Guedesover 0.50 Fouls won1.20 at bet365 · fair 1.11+8.0%
Antonyover 2.50 Shots1.44 at bet365 · fair 1.35+7.3%
Jon Martínover 0.50 Shots2.25 at bet365 · fair 2.10+7.1%
Carlos Solerover 0.50 Fouls won1.33 at bet365 · fair 1.25+6.6%
Carlos Solerover 0.50 Shots1.36 at Paddy Power · fair 1.28+6.1%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls53 playersHighest: Yangel Herrera, 1.82 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Yangel HerreraMID	Real Sociedad	2.15	72provisional	1.82	53%	43	018% 128% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	2.04	64provisional	1.59	46%	56	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFWD	Real Sociedad	3.29	34provisional	1.57	42%	10	027% 131% 221% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	1.98	66provisional	1.55	44%	70	025% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.61	83provisional	1.51	44%	53	023% 133% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	1.85	57provisional	1.33	38%	60	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.70	61provisional	1.26	35%	54	032% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.42	76provisional	1.25	35%	30	030% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.38	79provisional	1.24	35%	19	030% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Beñat TurrientesMID	Real Sociedad	1.62	57provisional	1.15	32%	48	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 53 →

Shots53 playersHighest: Cucho Hernández, 2.81 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	3.09	80provisional	2.81	74%	47	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+8%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	3.08	74provisional	2.62	69%	57	011% 120% 222% 319% 413% 58% 6+7%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.78	73provisional	2.35	65%	61	013% 123% 224% 318% 412% 56% 6+5%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.58	56provisional	1.73	48%	30	024% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	3.05	36provisional	1.42	38%	43	031% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Orri ÓskarssonFWD	Real Sociedad	2.08	54provisional	1.36	38%	43	031% 131% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	2.00	55provisional	1.33	37%	49	031% 132% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.57	65provisional	1.19	33%	56	034% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	1.83	53provisional	1.16	32%	69	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Pablo FornalsMID	Real Betis	1.33	76provisional	1.16	32%	63	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 53 →

Shots on target53 playersHighest: Antony, 0.99 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	1.16	74provisional	0.99	61%	57	039% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	1.06	73provisional	0.89	57%	61	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	0.98	80provisional	0.89	58%	47	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Orri ÓskarssonFWD	Real Sociedad	1.02	54provisional	0.67	46%	43	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	1.30	36provisional	0.61	42%	43	058% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
IscoMID	Real Betis	0.87	56provisional	0.58	42%	30	058% 129% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	0.86	55provisional	0.57	42%	49	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+1%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	0.79	53provisional	0.50	38%	69	062% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	0.56	64provisional	0.43	34%	56	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	0.55	65provisional	0.41	33%	56	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%

10 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 53 →

Fouls won53 playersHighest: Abde Ezzalzouli, 2.04 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.44	73provisional	2.04	58%	61	016% 126% 224% 317% 410% 54% 6+3%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	2.33	70provisional	1.89	54%	60	018% 127% 224% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.85	56provisional	1.88	51%	30	022% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Yangel HerreraMID	Real Sociedad	2.14	72provisional	1.77	51%	43	020% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	2.63	55provisional	1.73	48%	49	023% 129% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	1.78	74provisional	1.50	43%	57	025% 131% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	1.75	64provisional	1.31	37%	56	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	1.44	80provisional	1.30	37%	47	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Nelson DeossaMID	Real Betis	2.54	41provisional	1.28	34%	20	036% 130% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.77	54provisional	1.13	31%	56	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 53 →

Saves5 playersHighest: Álex Remiro, 3.17 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	3.19	89provisional	3.17	59%	73	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 511% 6+12%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	2.82	88provisional	2.76	50%	20	08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	2.77	88provisional	2.73	50%	28	08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Diego CondeGK	—	2.62	87provisional	2.56	46%	22	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Pau LópezGK	Real Betis	2.39	82provisional	2.21	38%	10	014% 124% 224% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.