La Liga · Spain

Real BetisvReal Sociedad

Friday 21 August at 20:00Estadio La Cartuja de Sevillalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls50 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 1.68 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	2.07	73provisional	1.68	48%	61	023% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	2.53	54provisional	1.53	43%	43	027% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.15	59provisional	1.42	41%	42	026% 133% 223% 311% 45% 51% 6+1%
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.64	76provisional	1.39	40%	50	028% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.82	64provisional	1.30	37%	36	032% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.53	75provisional	1.27	36%	15	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.50	75provisional	1.25	36%	28	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	1.32	80provisional	1.18	33%	26	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.51	70provisional	1.17	33%	26	034% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.31	78provisional	1.14	32%	67	034% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	1.15	88provisional	1.13	31%	38	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.85	55provisional	1.13	31%	11	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.80	56provisional	1.12	31%	25	039% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Beñat TurrientesMID	Real Sociedad	1.77	53provisional	1.04	28%	31	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Carlos SolerMID	Real Sociedad	1.22	75provisional	1.02	27%	30	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	1.23	74provisional	1.00	27%	20	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Yangel HerreraMID	Real Sociedad	2.27	40provisional	1.00	26%	7	044% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.29	69provisional	0.99	27%	37	040% 134% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	1.20	68provisional	0.91	23%	10	043% 134% 216% 36% 41% 5+0%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	1.10	74provisional	0.90	23%	54	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	2.25	35provisional	0.86	22%	15	048% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ángel OrtizDEF	Real Betis	1.50	52provisional	0.86	23%	11	049% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.63	47provisional	0.85	22%	40	048% 130% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pablo MarínMID	Real Sociedad	1.77	40provisional	0.78	19%	35	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pablo FornalsMID	Real Betis	0.92	75provisional	0.77	18%	59	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	0.86	79provisional	0.75	18%	47	048% 135% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Orri ÓskarssonFWD	Real Sociedad	1.39	49provisional	0.75	18%	24	051% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
NatanDEF	Real Betis	0.83	80provisional	0.75	18%	57	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	0.86	77provisional	0.74	17%	47	048% 134% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Nelson DeossaMID	Real Betis	2.03	33provisional	0.74	18%	9	054% 127% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.79	24provisional	0.73	16%	3	052% 131% 211% 34% 41% 51% 6+0%
IscoMID	Real Betis	1.52	43provisional	0.72	17%	23	053% 130% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Diego LlorenteDEF	Real Betis	0.86	74provisional	0.71	16%	45	050% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	0.92	66provisional	0.68	16%	60	053% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Ricardo RodríguezDEF	Real Betis	0.82	74provisional	0.67	15%	35	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Héctor BellerínDEF	Real Betis	0.92	66provisional	0.67	16%	29	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Gonçalo GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.11	54provisional	0.67	15%	26	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Aihen MuñozDEF	Real Sociedad	1.45	41provisional	0.66	16%	24	057% 127% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	0.87	68provisional	0.66	15%	50	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Arsen ZakharyanMID	Real Sociedad	2.22	26provisional	0.64	14%	5	056% 130% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Marc BartraDEF	Real Betis	0.73	79provisional	0.64	14%	48	054% 132% 211% 33% 4+1%
Luka SucicMID	Real Sociedad	1.11	47provisional	0.58	13%	36	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Chimy ÁvilaFWD	Real Betis	1.58	32provisional	0.56	12%	14	061% 126% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	0.79	58provisional	0.51	10%	40	062% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Pablo GarcíaFWD	Real Betis	1.97	23provisional	0.50	10%	5	064% 126% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Rodrigo RiquelmeFWD	Real Betis	1.47	22provisional	0.36	6%	10	071% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Iker LosadaFWD	Real Betis	0.93	34provisional	0.35	6%	5	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	20	099% 1+1%
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	28	099% 1+1%
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%

All 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Tackles50 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 1.76 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	2.17	73provisional	1.76	49%	61	024% 127% 221% 314% 47% 54% 6+3%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.51	78provisional	1.31	37%	67	031% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.51	69provisional	1.16	32%	37	036% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ángel OrtizDEF	Real Betis	2.02	52provisional	1.16	31%	11	043% 126% 215% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	1.40	68provisional	1.06	28%	10	039% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	2.01	47provisional	1.05	27%	40	043% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.20	75provisional	1.01	27%	28	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.22	70provisional	0.95	25%	26	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.29	64provisional	0.92	24%	36	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	1.10	74provisional	0.90	23%	54	044% 133% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Shots50 playersHighest: Cucho Hernández, 2.99 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	3.41	79provisional	2.99	77%	47	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+10%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	3.23	77provisional	2.78	73%	47	09% 118% 222% 319% 414% 59% 6+9%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	3.09	74provisional	2.53	68%	54	012% 121% 222% 319% 413% 57% 6+7%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	2.40	58provisional	1.54	43%	40	027% 130% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+1%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	2.03	66provisional	1.49	42%	60	028% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.97	43provisional	1.40	37%	23	032% 131% 218% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.76	69provisional	1.35	38%	37	030% 132% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	3.42	35provisional	1.31	34%	15	036% 130% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Gonçalo GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.99	54provisional	1.20	33%	26	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Pablo FornalsMID	Real Betis	1.38	75provisional	1.15	32%	59	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Fouls won50 playersHighest: Giovani Lo Celso, 2.25 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	3.50	58provisional	2.25	59%	40	017% 124% 221% 316% 410% 56% 6+6%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.48	74provisional	2.03	57%	54	017% 126% 224% 317% 49% 54% 6+3%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	2.54	68provisional	1.92	54%	50	019% 127% 223% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	1.86	77provisional	1.60	46%	47	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.94	43provisional	1.39	37%	23	033% 131% 218% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	2.12	54provisional	1.28	35%	43	033% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	1.31	79provisional	1.15	32%	47	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.46	69provisional	1.12	31%	37	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	1.37	73provisional	1.11	31%	61	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.32	75provisional	1.10	30%	15	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Cards50 playersHighest: Igor Zubeldia, 0.26 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.31	76provisional	0.26	23%	50	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	0.27	80provisional	0.24	21%	26	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	73provisional	0.23	21%	61	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	0.27	75provisional	0.23	20%	28	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	0.26	75provisional	0.22	19%	15	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jon MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	88provisional	0.21	19%	38	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	0.30	59provisional	0.20	18%	42	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	0.23	74provisional	0.19	17%	20	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.31	55provisional	0.19	17%	11	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	0.30	54provisional	0.18	16%	43	084% 115% 22% 3+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Álex Remiro, 3.01 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	3.01	90provisional	3.01	56%	73	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+10%
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	2.64	90provisional	2.64	48%	28	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	2.52	90provisional	2.52	45%	20	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.