La Liga · Spain

Real BetisvReal Sociedad

Friday 21 August at 20:00Estadio La Cartuja de Sevillalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls50 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 1.71 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	2.05	75provisional	1.71	50%	61	022% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	2.48	58provisional	1.61	46%	43	025% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.60	82provisional	1.46	43%	50	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.78	68provisional	1.35	39%	36	030% 131% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.52	76provisional	1.29	37%	15	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.26	51provisional	1.27	35%	42	032% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.51	74provisional	1.24	35%	28	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.80	61provisional	1.21	34%	11	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	1.32	80provisional	1.17	33%	26	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.78	57provisional	1.14	31%	25	038% 130% 218% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Tackles50 playersHighest: Jon Aramburu, 1.80 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	2.16	75provisional	1.80	50%	61	023% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.52	76provisional	1.28	36%	67	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.94	56provisional	1.22	33%	40	037% 130% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ángel OrtizDEF	Real Betis	2.02	52provisional	1.17	32%	11	043% 126% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	1.40	69provisional	1.07	29%	10	038% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	1.21	74provisional	0.99	26%	28	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.57	56provisional	0.97	25%	37	045% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.27	68provisional	0.96	25%	36	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	1.23	67provisional	0.92	24%	26	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.06	76provisional	0.90	23%	15	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Shots50 playersHighest: Cucho Hernández, 3.03 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	3.40	80provisional	3.03	77%	47	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	3.22	78provisional	2.80	73%	47	09% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	3.12	70provisional	2.42	64%	54	014% 122% 222% 318% 412% 57% 6+6%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.79	59provisional	1.84	50%	23	024% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	2.00	72provisional	1.60	46%	60	024% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	2.40	58provisional	1.55	43%	40	027% 130% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+1%
Gonçalo GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.97	57provisional	1.25	35%	26	034% 131% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	3.51	30provisional	1.16	30%	15	039% 131% 216% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Pablo FornalsMID	Real Betis	1.38	74provisional	1.14	31%	59	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.83	56provisional	1.13	31%	37	039% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Fouls won50 playersHighest: Giovani Lo Celso, 2.27 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	3.50	58provisional	2.27	60%	40	016% 124% 222% 316% 410% 56% 6+6%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.50	70provisional	1.93	54%	54	019% 126% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	2.56	65provisional	1.86	52%	50	021% 127% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.80	59provisional	1.84	50%	23	023% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	1.86	78provisional	1.61	47%	47	022% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	2.09	58provisional	1.36	38%	43	030% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	1.31	80provisional	1.16	32%	47	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	1.36	75provisional	1.14	31%	61	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.78	56provisional	1.12	30%	40	039% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.31	76provisional	1.11	31%	15	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Cards50 playersHighest: Igor Zubeldia, 0.27 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Igor ZubeldiaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.30	82provisional	0.27	24%	50	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Jon AramburuDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	75provisional	0.24	21%	61	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Duje Caleta-CarDEF	Real Sociedad	0.27	80provisional	0.24	21%	26	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon GorrotxategiMID	Real Sociedad	0.27	74provisional	0.22	20%	28	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	0.26	76provisional	0.22	19%	15	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jon MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	83provisional	0.20	18%	38	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Jon PachecoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.30	61provisional	0.20	18%	11	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Brais MéndezMID	Real Sociedad	0.29	58provisional	0.19	17%	43	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Aritz ElustondoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.28	57provisional	0.18	16%	25	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	0.24	67provisional	0.18	16%	20	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Ander BarrenetxeaFWD	Real Sociedad	0.32	51provisional	0.18	16%	42	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Beñat TurrientesMID	Real Sociedad	0.31	48provisional	0.16	15%	31	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
NatanDEF	Real Betis	0.19	78provisional	0.16	15%	57	085% 114% 2+1%
Javi LópezDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	67provisional	0.16	15%	26	085% 113% 2+1%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	0.21	68provisional	0.16	15%	36	085% 113% 2+1%
Diego LlorenteDEF	Real Betis	0.18	78provisional	0.16	15%	45	085% 113% 2+1%
Yangel HerreraMID	Real Sociedad	0.32	44provisional	0.16	14%	7	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
Sergio GómezDEF	Real Sociedad	0.19	76provisional	0.16	14%	67	086% 113% 2+1%
Carlos SolerMID	Real Sociedad	0.18	70provisional	0.14	13%	30	087% 112% 2+1%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	0.23	56provisional	0.14	13%	37	087% 112% 2+1%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	0.22	56provisional	0.14	13%	40	087% 112% 2+1%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	0.18	69provisional	0.14	13%	10	087% 112% 2+1%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	0.16	78provisional	0.14	13%	47	087% 112% 2+1%
IscoMID	Real Betis	0.20	59provisional	0.13	12%	23	088% 111% 2+1%
Ángel OrtizDEF	Real Betis	0.22	52provisional	0.12	11%	11	089% 111% 2+1%
Marc BartraDEF	Real Betis	0.13	82provisional	0.12	11%	48	089% 111% 2+1%
Nelson DeossaMID	Real Betis	0.29	37provisional	0.12	11%	9	089% 110% 2+1%
Aihen MuñozDEF	Real Sociedad	0.23	47provisional	0.12	11%	24	089% 110% 2+1%
Pablo MarínMID	Real Sociedad	0.21	48provisional	0.11	10%	35	090% 110% 2+1%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	0.14	70provisional	0.11	10%	54	090% 19% 2+1%
Orri ÓskarssonFWD	Real Sociedad	0.22	41provisional	0.10	10%	24	090% 19% 2+1%
Luka SucicMID	Real Sociedad	0.16	56provisional	0.10	9%	36	091% 19% 2+1%
Héctor BellerínDEF	Real Betis	0.13	67provisional	0.10	9%	29	091% 19% 2+1%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	0.11	80provisional	0.10	9%	47	091% 19% 2+0%
Gonçalo GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	0.16	57provisional	0.10	9%	26	091% 19% 2+1%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	0.14	65provisional	0.10	9%	50	091% 19% 2+1%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	0.28	30provisional	0.09	9%	15	091% 18% 2+1%
Mikel OyarzabalFWD	Real Sociedad	0.11	72provisional	0.09	9%	60	091% 18% 2+0%
Arsen ZakharyanMID	Real Sociedad	0.30	26provisional	0.09	8%	5	092% 18% 2+0%
Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFWD	Real Sociedad	0.33	24provisional	0.09	8%	3	092% 18% 2+0%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	0.13	58provisional	0.09	8%	40	092% 18% 2+0%
Chimy ÁvilaFWD	Real Betis	0.25	30provisional	0.08	8%	14	092% 17% 2+1%
Pablo FornalsMID	Real Betis	0.10	74provisional	0.08	8%	59	092% 18% 2+0%
Ricardo RodríguezDEF	Real Betis	0.10	69provisional	0.07	7%	35	093% 17% 2+0%
Pablo GarcíaFWD	Real Betis	0.28	23provisional	0.07	7%	5	093% 16% 2+0%
Rodrigo RiquelmeFWD	Real Betis	0.19	32provisional	0.07	7%	10	093% 16% 2+0%
Iker LosadaFWD	Real Betis	0.12	34provisional	0.05	5%	5	095% 14% 2+0%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	0.02	90provisional	0.02	2%	20	098% 1+2%
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	0.01	90provisional	0.01	1%	28	099% 1+1%
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	0.01	90provisional	0.01	1%	73	099% 1+1%

All 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves3 playersHighest: Álex Remiro, 3.01 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álex RemiroGK	Real Sociedad	3.01	90provisional	3.01	56%	73	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+10%
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	2.64	90provisional	2.64	48%	28	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	2.52	90provisional	2.52	45%	20	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.