La Liga · Spain

Real BetisvReal Sociedad

Friday 21 August at 20:00Estadio La Cartuja de Sevillalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls45 playersHighest: Brais Méndez Portela, 2.06 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Brais Méndez PortelaMID	Real Sociedad	2.83	66provisional	2.06	60%	13	014% 126% 226% 318% 410% 54% 6+2%
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	2.05	75provisional	1.70	49%	61	022% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Igor Zubeldía ElorzaDEF	Real Sociedad	1.59	82provisional	1.45	42%	50	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Marc Roca JunquéMID	Real Betis	1.74	68provisional	1.32	38%	36	031% 132% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ander Barrenetxea MuguruzaFWD	Real Sociedad	2.25	51provisional	1.26	35%	42	032% 133% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMID	Real Sociedad	1.50	74provisional	1.23	35%	28	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon Pacheco DozagaratDEF	Real Sociedad	1.79	61provisional	1.21	34%	11	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Javier López CarballoDEF	Real Sociedad	1.52	67provisional	1.13	31%	26	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sergio Gómez MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	1.32	76provisional	1.11	31%	67	035% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jon Martín VicenteDEF	Real Sociedad	1.17	83provisional	1.07	29%	38	035% 136% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Tackles45 playersHighest: Jon Mikel Aramburu Mejías, 2.85 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	3.42	75provisional	2.85	70%	61	012% 118% 219% 317% 413% 59% 6+12%
Sergio Gómez MartínDEF	Real Sociedad	2.66	76provisional	2.23	60%	67	016% 124% 222% 316% 410% 56% 6+5%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	2.81	63provisional	1.96	52%	24	022% 126% 220% 314% 49% 55% 6+4%
Héctor Junior Firpo AdamesDEF	Real Betis	2.35	69provisional	1.81	50%	10	022% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Ángel Ortiz MonterreyDEF	Real Betis	3.08	52provisional	1.78	45%	11	032% 123% 216% 312% 48% 55% 6+5%
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMID	Real Sociedad	1.98	74provisional	1.63	46%	28	024% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Javier López CarballoDEF	Real Sociedad	2.08	67provisional	1.54	43%	26	027% 130% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Ricardo Iván Rodríguez ArayaDEF	Real Betis	2.11	64provisional	1.49	42%	18	030% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Marc Bartra AregallDEF	Real Betis	1.62	82provisional	1.47	41%	48	027% 132% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	1.93	67provisional	1.44	39%	20	034% 127% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Shots45 playersHighest: Juan Camilo Hernández Suárez, 2.93 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWD	Real Betis	3.30	80provisional	2.93	76%	47	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWD	Real Betis	3.13	78provisional	2.72	72%	47	09% 119% 222% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	3.03	70provisional	2.34	63%	54	015% 122% 222% 317% 411% 56% 6+6%
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMID	Real Betis	2.72	59provisional	1.79	49%	23	024% 127% 221% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Mikel Oyarzabal UgarteFWD	Real Sociedad	1.97	72provisional	1.58	45%	60	025% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	2.33	58provisional	1.51	42%	40	027% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Gonçalo Manuel Ganchinho GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.95	57provisional	1.24	34%	26	034% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Luis Ezequiel ÁvilaFWD	Real Betis	3.01	36provisional	1.21	32%	11	037% 131% 217% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Pablo Fornals MallaMID	Real Betis	1.34	74provisional	1.11	30%	59	035% 135% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aitor Ruibal GarcíaFWD	Real Betis	1.78	56provisional	1.10	30%	37	040% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Fouls won45 playersHighest: Giovani Lo Celso, 2.20 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	3.40	58provisional	2.20	59%	40	017% 124% 222% 316% 410% 56% 6+5%
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.43	70provisional	1.88	53%	54	020% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Takefusa KuboFWD	Real Sociedad	2.52	65provisional	1.84	51%	50	021% 127% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMID	Real Betis	2.72	59provisional	1.79	49%	23	024% 127% 221% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWD	Real Betis	1.81	78provisional	1.57	45%	47	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Brais Méndez PortelaMID	Real Sociedad	1.73	66provisional	1.26	36%	13	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	1.64	63provisional	1.14	31%	24	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWD	Real Betis	1.27	80provisional	1.13	31%	47	034% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	1.35	75provisional	1.12	31%	61	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Gonçalo Manuel Ganchinho GuedesFWD	Real Sociedad	1.62	57provisional	1.03	28%	26	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Cards45 playersHighest: Igor Zubeldía Elorza, 0.27 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Igor Zubeldía ElorzaDEF	Real Sociedad	0.30	82provisional	0.27	23%	50	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Brais Méndez PortelaMID	Real Sociedad	0.36	66provisional	0.26	23%	13	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	75provisional	0.24	21%	61	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMID	Real Sociedad	0.27	74provisional	0.22	19%	28	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jon Martín VicenteDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	83provisional	0.20	18%	38	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Jon Pacheco DozagaratDEF	Real Sociedad	0.29	61provisional	0.20	17%	11	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Ander Barrenetxea MuguruzaFWD	Real Sociedad	0.31	51provisional	0.17	16%	42	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	0.23	67provisional	0.17	15%	20	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
Beñat Turrientes ImazMID	Real Sociedad	0.31	48provisional	0.16	15%	31	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Javier López CarballoDEF	Real Sociedad	0.22	67provisional	0.16	15%	26	085% 113% 2+1%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Alejandro Remiro Gargallo, 2.92 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Alejandro Remiro GargalloGK	Real Sociedad	2.92	90provisional	2.92	54%	73	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
Álvaro Vallés RosaGK	Real Betis	2.61	90provisional	2.61	47%	28	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.