La Liga · Spain

GetafevRacing Santander

Sunday 23 August at 18:30Coliseum Alfonso Pérezexpected lineup

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formOrel Mangala over 0.5 shots: 9/10 of his last 10, 8 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 5/5 at home · strip 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 · market 65% · best 1.55 (Coral) · bet365 1.53

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls30 playersHighest: Mario Martín, 1.85 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	2.34	66provisional	1.85	54%	66	018% 128% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
DavinchiDEF	Getafe	2.35	49provisional	1.49	42%	15	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.57	83provisional	1.48	43%	72	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	1.66	68provisional	1.34	38%	28	029% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Abdel AbqarDEF	Getafe	1.49	78provisional	1.33	38%	53	028% 134% 223% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Gustavo PuertaMID	Racing Santander	1.54	69provisional	1.26	36%	31	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Orel MangalaMID	Getafe	1.44	73provisional	1.22	34%	20	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	1.18	86provisional	1.15	32%	19	032% 136% 221% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dakonam DjenéDEF	Getafe	1.25	79provisional	1.14	32%	66	032% 136% 221% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Allan NyomDEF	Getafe	1.60	55provisional	1.09	30%	35	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 30 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 30 →

Shots30 playersHighest: Martín Satriano, 2.12 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	2.19	86provisional	2.12	61%	19	014% 126% 226% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.61	83provisional	1.50	44%	72	024% 132% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	1.64	68provisional	1.29	37%	28	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Enes ÜnalFWD	Getafe	5.06	15provisional	1.16	31%	41	034% 135% 219% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	2.15	42provisional	1.11	29%	50	041% 130% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	1.40	57provisional	0.94	25%	56	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Orel MangalaMID	Getafe	1.07	73provisional	0.89	23%	20	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Borja MayoralFWD	Getafe	1.67	42provisional	0.89	22%	40	045% 132% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	1.11	66provisional	0.85	21%	66	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Coba da CostaFWD	Getafe	1.89	34provisional	0.84	21%	33	047% 132% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 30 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 30 →

Shots on target30 playersHighest: Martín Satriano, 0.87 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	0.90	86provisional	0.87	57%	19	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	0.61	68provisional	0.48	37%	28	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	0.51	83provisional	0.48	37%	72	063% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
Enes ÜnalFWD	Getafe	2.01	15provisional	0.46	36%	41	064% 127% 27% 31% 40% 5+0%
Borja MayoralFWD	Getafe	0.72	42provisional	0.38	30%	40	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	0.71	42provisional	0.37	29%	50	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	0.49	57provisional	0.33	27%	56	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Asier VillalibreFWD	Racing Santander	0.72	33provisional	0.31	25%	17	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
JuanmiFWD	Getafe	0.77	29provisional	0.30	25%	32	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Coba da CostaFWD	Getafe	0.66	34provisional	0.29	24%	33	076% 120% 24% 3+1%
Álex SancrisFWD	Getafe	0.65	33provisional	0.28	24%	18	076% 120% 23% 3+1%
Javi MuñozMID	Getafe	0.44	44provisional	0.24	20%	52	080% 117% 23% 3+0%
Orel MangalaMID	Getafe	0.28	73provisional	0.23	21%	20	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	0.28	66provisional	0.21	19%	66	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Álex SolaFWD	Getafe	0.37	41provisional	0.19	17%	20	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Zaid RomeroDEF	Getafe	0.17	87provisional	0.16	15%	16	085% 114% 2+1%
Gustavo PuertaMID	Racing Santander	0.20	69provisional	0.16	15%	31	085% 114% 2+1%
Johan MojicaDEF	—	0.15	81provisional	0.14	13%	71	087% 112% 2+1%
Domingos DuarteDEF	Getafe	0.12	86provisional	0.11	10%	56	090% 110% 2+1%
Yvan NeyouMID	Getafe	0.18	48provisional	0.11	10%	35	090% 19% 2+1%
Allan NyomDEF	Getafe	0.15	55provisional	0.10	9%	35	091% 19% 2+1%
Abdel AbqarDEF	Getafe	0.10	78provisional	0.09	9%	53	091% 18% 2+0%
Kiko FemeníaDEF	Getafe	0.10	76provisional	0.09	9%	57	091% 18% 2+0%
DavinchiDEF	Getafe	0.15	49provisional	0.09	8%	15	092% 18% 2+0%
Juan BerrocalDEF	Getafe	0.12	54provisional	0.08	7%	19	093% 17% 2+0%
Sebastián BoselliDEF	Getafe	0.20	26provisional	0.07	6%	12	094% 16% 2+0%
Andrés GarcíaDEF	Getafe	0.09	52provisional	0.05	5%	14	095% 15% 2+0%
Dakonam DjenéDEF	Getafe	0.05	79provisional	0.04	4%	66	096% 1+4%
David SoriaGK	Getafe	0.00	89provisional	0.00	0%	77	0100% 1+0%
Julen AgirrezabalaGK	Racing Santander	0.00	87provisional	0.00	0%	33	0100% 1+0%

All 30 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won30 playersHighest: Martín Satriano, 1.78 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	1.84	86provisional	1.78	52%	19	018% 130% 226% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	2.24	68provisional	1.75	50%	28	021% 128% 223% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.76	83provisional	1.64	48%	72	021% 131% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Abdel AbqarDEF	Getafe	1.60	78provisional	1.41	41%	53	026% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Gustavo PuertaMID	Racing Santander	1.78	69provisional	1.41	40%	31	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Álex SolaFWD	Getafe	2.76	41provisional	1.39	38%	20	032% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	1.78	66provisional	1.36	39%	66	029% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	1.93	57provisional	1.29	36%	56	034% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	2.40	42provisional	1.22	32%	50	039% 129% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Yvan NeyouMID	Getafe	1.75	48provisional	1.00	26%	35	044% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 30 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 30 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Julen Agirrezabala, 2.94 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Julen AgirrezabalaGK	Racing Santander	3.02	87provisional	2.94	54%	33	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
David SoriaGK	Getafe	2.63	89provisional	2.61	47%	77	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.