La Liga · Spain

LevantevReal Betis

Saturday 29 August at 16:00Estadio Ciudad de Valencialineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls44 playersHighest: Marc Roca, 1.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.93	68provisional	1.46	42%	36	027% 130% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.64	76provisional	1.39	40%	15	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Oriol ReyMID	Levante	1.83	66provisional	1.34	38%	16	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	1.61	71provisional	1.27	36%	30	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Pablo MartínezMID	Levante	1.60	69provisional	1.23	35%	22	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Manu SánchezDEF	Levante	1.16	85provisional	1.10	30%	32	034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adrián DelaDEF	Levante	1.17	82provisional	1.07	29%	30	036% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.67	56provisional	1.04	28%	40	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	1.37	67provisional	1.02	28%	20	042% 130% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	1.29	69provisional	1.00	27%	10	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →

Tackles44 playersHighest: Manu Sánchez, 1.51 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Manu SánchezDEF	Levante	1.60	85provisional	1.51	43%	32	026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.96	56provisional	1.23	33%	40	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ángel OrtizDEF	Real Betis	2.04	52provisional	1.18	32%	11	042% 126% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Jeremy ToljanDEF	Levante	1.21	86provisional	1.15	32%	36	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	1.41	69provisional	1.09	29%	10	038% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.59	56provisional	0.98	26%	37	044% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.28	68provisional	0.97	26%	36	042% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.08	76provisional	0.91	24%	15	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kervin ArriagaMID	Levante	1.42	57provisional	0.90	23%	18	047% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	1.13	70provisional	0.87	22%	54	045% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Héctor BellerínDEF	Real Betis	1.13	67provisional	0.83	21%	29	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ricardo RodríguezDEF	Real Betis	1.06	69provisional	0.81	21%	35	049% 131% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	1.09	67provisional	0.81	21%	20	050% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Marc BartraDEF	Real Betis	0.85	82provisional	0.77	19%	48	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Oriol ReyMID	Levante	1.03	66provisional	0.75	19%	16	051% 130% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Diego LlorenteDEF	Real Betis	0.86	78provisional	0.75	18%	45	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
NatanDEF	Real Betis	0.82	78provisional	0.71	17%	57	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	1.10	58provisional	0.71	17%	40	053% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	0.80	78provisional	0.70	16%	47	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Pablo FornalsMID	Real Betis	0.78	74provisional	0.64	14%	59	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
IscoMID	Real Betis	0.95	59provisional	0.63	14%	23	057% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Adrián DelaDEF	Levante	0.69	82provisional	0.63	14%	30	056% 131% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Víctor GarcíaFWD	Levante	1.11	50provisional	0.61	14%	15	057% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	0.76	71provisional	0.60	13%	30	057% 130% 210% 32% 41% 5+0%
Unai ElgezabalDEF	Levante	0.67	80provisional	0.60	13%	11	057% 130% 210% 32% 40% 5+0%
Jon Ander OlasagastiMID	Levante	1.01	52provisional	0.59	14%	20	060% 126% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Pablo MartínezMID	Levante	0.72	69provisional	0.55	12%	22	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+1%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	0.60	80provisional	0.53	11%	47	060% 130% 28% 32% 4+0%
Carlos ÁlvarezMID	Levante	0.73	63provisional	0.51	10%	24	062% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
Nelson DeossaMID	Real Betis	1.24	37provisional	0.51	11%	9	065% 124% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Kareem TundeFWD	Levante	0.83	55provisional	0.50	10%	16	063% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
Iker LosadaFWD	Levante	1.07	34provisional	0.41	8%	5	069% 123% 26% 31% 4+0%
Roger BruguéFWD	Levante	0.63	53provisional	0.37	6%	13	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Karl Etta EyongFWD	Levante	0.69	47provisional	0.36	7%	16	072% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Rodrigo RiquelmeFWD	Real Betis	0.90	32provisional	0.32	5%	10	074% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Pablo GarcíaFWD	Real Betis	1.06	23provisional	0.27	4%	5	078% 118% 23% 31% 4+0%
Paco CortésFWD	Levante	0.63	39provisional	0.27	4%	7	078% 118% 23% 31% 4+0%
Chimy ÁvilaFWD	Real Betis	0.63	30provisional	0.21	3%	14	082% 115% 22% 3+0%
Goduine KoyalipouFWD	Levante	0.65	22provisional	0.16	2%	2	086% 112% 21% 3+0%
José Luis MoralesFWD	Levante	0.70	18provisional	0.14	1%	2	087% 111% 21% 3+0%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	0.39	30provisional	0.13	1%	15	088% 111% 21% 3+0%
Mathew RyanGK	Levante	0.03	90provisional	0.03	—	36	097% 1+3%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	20	099% 1+1%
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	28	099% 1+1%

All 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots44 playersHighest: Cucho Hernández, 2.72 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	3.06	80provisional	2.72	73%	47	08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	2.90	78provisional	2.52	68%	47	011% 121% 223% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.81	70provisional	2.18	60%	54	016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 56% 6+4%
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	2.55	71provisional	2.02	57%	30	017% 126% 224% 317% 49% 54% 6+3%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.51	59provisional	1.65	45%	23	026% 128% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Karl Etta EyongFWD	Levante	2.89	47provisional	1.52	39%	16	036% 125% 216% 311% 47% 54% 6+3%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	2.16	58provisional	1.40	39%	40	030% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Roger BruguéFWD	Levante	2.35	53provisional	1.38	38%	13	031% 131% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Paco CortésFWD	Levante	2.60	39provisional	1.13	29%	7	040% 130% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Carlos ÁlvarezMID	Levante	1.61	63provisional	1.13	31%	24	037% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →

Fouls won44 playersHighest: Iván Romero, 2.17 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	2.75	71provisional	2.17	60%	30	016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	3.18	58provisional	2.06	56%	40	019% 126% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.27	70provisional	1.75	50%	54	022% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.54	59provisional	1.67	46%	23	026% 128% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Carlos ÁlvarezMID	Levante	2.16	63provisional	1.52	43%	24	028% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	1.69	78provisional	1.46	42%	47	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kareem TundeFWD	Levante	1.86	55provisional	1.13	32%	16	037% 131% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	1.19	80provisional	1.05	28%	47	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Karl Etta EyongFWD	Levante	1.94	47provisional	1.02	27%	16	046% 127% 214% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.62	56provisional	1.01	27%	40	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →

Cards44 playersHighest: Sofyan Amrabat, 0.24 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	0.28	76provisional	0.24	21%	15	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Oriol ReyMID	Levante	0.29	66provisional	0.21	19%	16	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	0.26	67provisional	0.19	17%	20	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Kervin ArriagaMID	Levante	0.30	57provisional	0.19	17%	18	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Manu SánchezDEF	Levante	0.20	85provisional	0.19	17%	32	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Adrián DelaDEF	Levante	0.21	82provisional	0.19	17%	30	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Unai ElgezabalDEF	Levante	0.21	80provisional	0.19	17%	11	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
NatanDEF	Real Betis	0.20	78provisional	0.18	16%	57	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	0.23	68provisional	0.17	16%	36	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Jeremy ToljanDEF	Levante	0.18	86provisional	0.17	16%	36	084% 114% 2+1%

10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Álvaro Valles, 3.21 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	3.21	90provisional	3.21	60%	28	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	3.06	90provisional	3.06	57%	20	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Mathew RyanGK	Levante	2.90	90provisional	2.90	53%	36	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.