La Liga · Spain
La Liga · SpainLevantevReal Betis
Levante
Real BetisReferee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
23.2
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512
Model projections
Fouls44 playersHighest: Marc Roca, 1.46 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
| Player | Team | Model /90 | Exp. mins | Projected | Over 1.5 | n | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc RocaMID | Real Betis | 1.93 | 68provisional | 1.46 | 42% | 36 | 027% 130% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1% |
| Sofyan AmrabatMID | Real Betis | 1.64 | 76provisional | 1.39 | 40% | 15 | 028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1% |
| Oriol ReyMID | Levante | 1.83 | 66provisional | 1.34 | 38% | 16 | 032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1% |
| Iván RomeroFWD | Levante | 1.61 | 71provisional | 1.27 | 36% | 30 | 030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0% |
| Pablo MartínezMID | Levante | 1.60 | 69provisional | 1.23 | 35% | 22 | 033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Manu SánchezDEF | Levante | 1.16 | 85provisional | 1.10 | 30% | 32 | 034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Adrián DelaDEF | Levante | 1.17 | 82provisional | 1.07 | 29% | 30 | 036% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Sergi AltimiraMID | Real Betis | 1.67 | 56provisional | 1.04 | 28% | 40 | 040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Valentín GómezDEF | Real Betis | 1.37 | 67provisional | 1.02 | 28% | 20 | 042% 130% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Junior FirpoDEF | Real Betis | 1.29 | 69provisional | 1.00 | 27% | 10 | 039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0% |
10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →
Tackles44 playersHighest: Manu Sánchez, 1.51 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
| Player | Team | Model /90 | Exp. mins | Projected | Over 1.5 | n | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manu SánchezDEF | Levante | 1.60 | 85provisional | 1.51 | 43% | 32 | 026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1% |
| Sergi AltimiraMID | Real Betis | 1.96 | 56provisional | 1.23 | 33% | 40 | 037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1% |
| Ángel OrtizDEF | Real Betis | 2.04 | 52provisional | 1.18 | 32% | 11 | 042% 126% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1% |
| Jeremy ToljanDEF | Levante | 1.21 | 86provisional | 1.15 | 32% | 36 | 034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Junior FirpoDEF | Real Betis | 1.41 | 69provisional | 1.09 | 29% | 10 | 038% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Aitor RuibalFWD | Real Betis | 1.59 | 56provisional | 0.98 | 26% | 37 | 044% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Marc RocaMID | Real Betis | 1.28 | 68provisional | 0.97 | 26% | 36 | 042% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Sofyan AmrabatMID | Real Betis | 1.08 | 76provisional | 0.91 | 24% | 15 | 044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0% |
| Kervin ArriagaMID | Levante | 1.42 | 57provisional | 0.90 | 23% | 18 | 047% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Abde EzzalzouliFWD | Real Betis | 1.13 | 70provisional | 0.87 | 22% | 54 | 045% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0% |
10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →
Shots44 playersHighest: Cucho Hernández, 2.72 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
| Player | Team | Model /90 | Exp. mins | Projected | Over 1.5 | n | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cucho HernándezFWD | Real Betis | 3.06 | 80provisional | 2.72 | 73% | 47 | 08% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8% |
| AntonyFWD | Real Betis | 2.90 | 78provisional | 2.52 | 68% | 47 | 011% 121% 223% 319% 413% 57% 6+6% |
| Abde EzzalzouliFWD | Real Betis | 2.81 | 70provisional | 2.18 | 60% | 54 | 016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 56% 6+4% |
| Iván RomeroFWD | Levante | 2.55 | 71provisional | 2.02 | 57% | 30 | 017% 126% 224% 317% 49% 54% 6+3% |
| IscoMID | Real Betis | 2.51 | 59provisional | 1.65 | 45% | 23 | 026% 128% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2% |
| Karl Etta EyongFWD | Levante | 2.89 | 47provisional | 1.52 | 39% | 16 | 036% 125% 216% 311% 47% 54% 6+3% |
| Giovani Lo CelsoMID | Real Betis | 2.16 | 58provisional | 1.40 | 39% | 40 | 030% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1% |
| Roger BruguéFWD | Levante | 2.35 | 53provisional | 1.38 | 38% | 13 | 031% 131% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1% |
| Paco CortésFWD | Levante | 2.60 | 39provisional | 1.13 | 29% | 7 | 040% 130% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1% |
| Carlos ÁlvarezMID | Levante | 1.61 | 63provisional | 1.13 | 31% | 24 | 037% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Víctor GarcíaFWD | Levante | 2.00 | 50provisional | 1.10 | 30% | 15 | 038% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Cédric BakambuFWD | Real Betis | 3.16 | 30provisional | 1.04 | 26% | 15 | 043% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1% |
| Adrián DelaDEF | Levante | 1.14 | 82provisional | 1.04 | 28% | 30 | 038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Kareem TundeFWD | Levante | 1.69 | 55provisional | 1.03 | 28% | 16 | 040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Pablo FornalsMID | Real Betis | 1.25 | 74provisional | 1.03 | 28% | 59 | 038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Aitor RuibalFWD | Real Betis | 1.65 | 56provisional | 1.02 | 27% | 37 | 042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Chimy ÁvilaFWD | Real Betis | 2.95 | 30provisional | 0.99 | 25% | 14 | 046% 130% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+1% |
| Rodrigo RiquelmeFWD | Real Betis | 2.72 | 32provisional | 0.98 | 25% | 10 | 045% 130% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+1% |
| Pablo MartínezMID | Levante | 1.18 | 69provisional | 0.91 | 23% | 22 | 043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0% |
| Jon Ander OlasagastiMID | Levante | 1.43 | 52provisional | 0.83 | 22% | 20 | 050% 128% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Goduine KoyalipouFWD | Levante | 3.42 | 22provisional | 0.83 | 20% | 2 | 049% 131% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Iker LosadaFWD | Levante | 2.13 | 34provisional | 0.81 | 20% | 5 | 051% 129% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| José Luis MoralesFWD | Levante | 3.61 | 18provisional | 0.71 | 16% | 2 | 052% 132% 211% 33% 41% 50% 6+0% |
| Marc RocaMID | Real Betis | 0.90 | 68provisional | 0.69 | 16% | 36 | 053% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0% |
| Nelson DeossaMID | Real Betis | 1.66 | 37provisional | 0.68 | 16% | 9 | 057% 127% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0% |
| Pablo GarcíaFWD | Real Betis | 2.59 | 23provisional | 0.67 | 15% | 5 | 056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 51% 6+0% |
| Marc BartraDEF | Real Betis | 0.68 | 82provisional | 0.61 | 13% | 48 | 055% 132% 210% 32% 4+1% |
| Kervin ArriagaMID | Levante | 0.92 | 57provisional | 0.58 | 13% | 18 | 059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0% |
| Sergi AltimiraMID | Real Betis | 0.85 | 56provisional | 0.54 | 11% | 40 | 061% 128% 29% 32% 4+1% |
| Sofyan AmrabatMID | Real Betis | 0.62 | 76provisional | 0.52 | 10% | 15 | 061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0% |
| Oriol ReyMID | Levante | 0.67 | 66provisional | 0.49 | 10% | 16 | 063% 127% 28% 32% 4+0% |
| Manu SánchezDEF | Levante | 0.46 | 85provisional | 0.44 | 8% | 32 | 065% 128% 26% 31% 4+0% |
| Junior FirpoDEF | Real Betis | 0.57 | 69provisional | 0.44 | 8% | 10 | 066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0% |
| Valentín GómezDEF | Real Betis | 0.52 | 67provisional | 0.39 | 7% | 20 | 069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0% |
| Unai ElgezabalDEF | Levante | 0.37 | 80provisional | 0.33 | 5% | 11 | 072% 123% 24% 3+1% |
| Diego LlorenteDEF | Real Betis | 0.37 | 78provisional | 0.32 | 4% | 45 | 073% 123% 24% 3+1% |
| Jeremy ToljanDEF | Levante | 0.33 | 86provisional | 0.31 | 4% | 36 | 073% 122% 24% 3+0% |
| NatanDEF | Real Betis | 0.35 | 78provisional | 0.31 | 4% | 57 | 074% 122% 24% 3+1% |
| Héctor BellerínDEF | Real Betis | 0.38 | 67provisional | 0.28 | 4% | 29 | 076% 120% 23% 3+0% |
| Ricardo RodríguezDEF | Real Betis | 0.33 | 69provisional | 0.25 | 3% | 35 | 078% 119% 23% 3+0% |
| Ángel OrtizDEF | Real Betis | 0.39 | 52provisional | 0.23 | 3% | 11 | 081% 116% 23% 3+0% |
| Mathew RyanGK | Levante | 0.04 | 90provisional | 0.04 | — | 36 | 096% 1+4% |
| AdriánGK | Real Betis | 0.00 | 90provisional | 0.00 | — | 20 | 0100% 1+0% |
| Álvaro VallesGK | Real Betis | 0.00 | 90provisional | 0.00 | — | 28 | 0100% 1+0% |
All 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥
Fouls won44 playersHighest: Iván Romero, 2.17 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
| Player | Team | Model /90 | Exp. mins | Projected | Over 1.5 | n | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván RomeroFWD | Levante | 2.75 | 71provisional | 2.17 | 60% | 30 | 016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4% |
| Giovani Lo CelsoMID | Real Betis | 3.18 | 58provisional | 2.06 | 56% | 40 | 019% 126% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+4% |
| Abde EzzalzouliFWD | Real Betis | 2.27 | 70provisional | 1.75 | 50% | 54 | 022% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2% |
| IscoMID | Real Betis | 2.54 | 59provisional | 1.67 | 46% | 23 | 026% 128% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2% |
| Carlos ÁlvarezMID | Levante | 2.16 | 63provisional | 1.52 | 43% | 24 | 028% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1% |
| AntonyFWD | Real Betis | 1.69 | 78provisional | 1.46 | 42% | 47 | 026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1% |
| Kareem TundeFWD | Levante | 1.86 | 55provisional | 1.13 | 32% | 16 | 037% 131% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0% |
| Cucho HernándezFWD | Real Betis | 1.19 | 80provisional | 1.05 | 28% | 47 | 036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0% |
| Karl Etta EyongFWD | Levante | 1.94 | 47provisional | 1.02 | 27% | 16 | 046% 127% 214% 38% 43% 51% 6+1% |
| Sergi AltimiraMID | Real Betis | 1.62 | 56provisional | 1.01 | 27% | 40 | 042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0% |
10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →
Cards44 playersHighest: Sofyan Amrabat, 0.24 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
| Player | Team | Model /90 | Exp. mins | Projected | Over 0.5 | n | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofyan AmrabatMID | Real Betis | 0.28 | 76provisional | 0.24 | 21% | 15 | 079% 118% 22% 3+0% |
| Oriol ReyMID | Levante | 0.29 | 66provisional | 0.21 | 19% | 16 | 081% 116% 22% 3+0% |
| Valentín GómezDEF | Real Betis | 0.26 | 67provisional | 0.19 | 17% | 20 | 083% 115% 22% 3+0% |
| Kervin ArriagaMID | Levante | 0.30 | 57provisional | 0.19 | 17% | 18 | 083% 115% 22% 3+0% |
| Manu SánchezDEF | Levante | 0.20 | 85provisional | 0.19 | 17% | 32 | 083% 115% 22% 3+0% |
| Adrián DelaDEF | Levante | 0.21 | 82provisional | 0.19 | 17% | 30 | 083% 115% 22% 3+0% |
| Unai ElgezabalDEF | Levante | 0.21 | 80provisional | 0.19 | 17% | 11 | 083% 115% 21% 3+0% |
| NatanDEF | Real Betis | 0.20 | 78provisional | 0.18 | 16% | 57 | 084% 114% 21% 3+0% |
| Marc RocaMID | Real Betis | 0.23 | 68provisional | 0.17 | 16% | 36 | 084% 114% 21% 3+0% |
| Jeremy ToljanDEF | Levante | 0.18 | 86provisional | 0.17 | 16% | 36 | 084% 114% 2+1% |
10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 →
Saves3 playersHighest: Álvaro Valles, 3.21 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
| Player | Team | Model /90 | Exp. mins | Projected | Over 2.5 | n | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro VallesGK | Real Betis | 3.21 | 90provisional | 3.21 | 60% | 28 | 06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13% |
| AdriánGK | Real Betis | 3.06 | 90provisional | 3.06 | 57% | 20 | 06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11% |
| Mathew RyanGK | Levante | 2.90 | 90provisional | 2.90 | 53% | 36 | 07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9% |
1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.