La Liga · Spain

LevantevReal Betis

Saturday 29 August at 16:00Estadio Ciudad de Valencialineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls38 playersHighest: Marc Roca Junqué, 1.41 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Marc Roca JunquéMID	Real Betis	1.87	68provisional	1.41	41%	36	028% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Oriol Rey ErenasMID	Levante	1.82	66provisional	1.33	38%	16	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Iván Romero de Ávila AraqueFWD	Levante	1.60	71provisional	1.27	36%	30	031% 133% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Manuel Sánchez De La PeñaDEF	Levante	1.15	85provisional	1.10	30%	32	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adrián De la Fuente BarquillaDEF	Levante	1.16	82provisional	1.06	29%	30	037% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	1.49	63provisional	1.04	28%	24	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	1.32	67provisional	0.98	27%	20	043% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Unai Elgezabal UdondoDEF	Levante	1.09	80provisional	0.97	26%	11	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Héctor Junior Firpo AdamesDEF	Real Betis	1.25	69provisional	0.96	25%	10	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Kevin ArriagaMID	Levante	1.50	57provisional	0.95	25%	18	044% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 38 →

Tackles38 playersHighest: Manuel Sánchez De La Peña, 2.30 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Manuel Sánchez De La PeñaDEF	Levante	2.42	85provisional	2.30	63%	32	014% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	2.85	63provisional	1.99	53%	24	022% 125% 220% 314% 49% 55% 6+5%
Jeremy ToljanDEF	Levante	1.95	86provisional	1.86	53%	36	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Héctor Junior Firpo AdamesDEF	Real Betis	2.39	69provisional	1.84	51%	10	022% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Ángel Ortiz MonterreyDEF	Real Betis	3.13	52provisional	1.81	46%	11	032% 122% 216% 312% 48% 55% 6+5%
Kevin ArriagaMID	Levante	2.42	57provisional	1.52	41%	18	032% 127% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Ricardo Iván Rodríguez ArayaDEF	Real Betis	2.15	64provisional	1.52	42%	18	029% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Marc Bartra AregallDEF	Real Betis	1.64	82provisional	1.49	42%	48	026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	1.97	67provisional	1.46	40%	20	033% 127% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Marc Roca JunquéMID	Real Betis	1.91	68provisional	1.45	40%	36	030% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%

10 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 38 →

Shots38 playersHighest: Juan Camilo Hernández Suárez, 2.65 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWD	Real Betis	2.98	80provisional	2.65	71%	47	09% 120% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWD	Real Betis	2.84	78provisional	2.46	67%	47	011% 121% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+6%
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.74	70provisional	2.12	59%	54	017% 124% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Iván Romero de Ávila AraqueFWD	Levante	2.51	71provisional	1.99	56%	30	018% 126% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMID	Real Betis	2.46	59provisional	1.62	45%	23	027% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Karl Edouard Blaise Etta EyongFWD	Levante	2.84	47provisional	1.49	39%	16	036% 125% 216% 311% 46% 53% 6+3%
Roger Brugué AyguadéFWD	Levante	2.32	53provisional	1.36	38%	13	032% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	2.11	58provisional	1.36	38%	40	031% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Carlos Álvarez RiveraMID	Levante	1.60	63provisional	1.12	31%	24	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Francisco Cortés GraciaFWD	Levante	2.57	39provisional	1.11	29%	7	041% 130% 215% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%

10 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 38 →

Fouls won38 playersHighest: Iván Romero de Ávila Araque, 2.15 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Iván Romero de Ávila AraqueFWD	Levante	2.71	71provisional	2.15	60%	30	016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	3.07	58provisional	1.99	54%	40	020% 126% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.20	70provisional	1.70	48%	54	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMID	Real Betis	2.46	59provisional	1.62	45%	23	027% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Carlos Álvarez RiveraMID	Levante	2.13	63provisional	1.50	43%	24	028% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWD	Real Betis	1.63	78provisional	1.42	41%	47	027% 133% 223% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kareem Tunde RuizFWD	Levante	1.84	55provisional	1.12	31%	16	038% 131% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	1.48	63provisional	1.03	28%	24	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWD	Real Betis	1.15	80provisional	1.02	27%	47	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Karl Edouard Blaise Etta EyongFWD	Levante	1.92	47provisional	1.01	27%	16	046% 127% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%

10 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 38 →

Cards38 playersHighest: Oriol Rey Erenas, 0.20 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Oriol Rey ErenasMID	Levante	0.28	66provisional	0.20	18%	16	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Manuel Sánchez De La PeñaDEF	Levante	0.20	85provisional	0.19	17%	32	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
Kevin ArriagaMID	Levante	0.30	57provisional	0.19	17%	18	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	0.25	67provisional	0.18	16%	20	084% 115% 22% 3+0%
Adrián De la Fuente BarquillaDEF	Levante	0.20	82provisional	0.18	17%	30	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
Unai Elgezabal UdondoDEF	Levante	0.20	80provisional	0.18	16%	11	084% 115% 2+2%
Jeremy ToljanDEF	Levante	0.18	86provisional	0.17	16%	36	084% 115% 2+1%
Natan Bernardo de SouzaDEF	Real Betis	0.19	78provisional	0.17	15%	57	085% 114% 2+1%
Diego Javier Llorente RíosDEF	Real Betis	0.19	78provisional	0.16	15%	45	085% 114% 2+1%
Marc Roca JunquéMID	Real Betis	0.21	68provisional	0.16	15%	36	085% 114% 2+1%

10 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 38 →

Saves1 playersHighest: Álvaro Vallés Rosa, 3.18 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álvaro Vallés RosaGK	Real Betis	3.18	90provisional	3.18	59%	28	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+12%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.