La Liga · Spain

OsasunavGetafe

Monday 31 August at 18:30Estadio El Sadarlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls40 playersHighest: Mario Martín, 1.95 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	2.87	61provisional	1.95	55%	30	018% 127% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+2%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	1.97	76provisional	1.68	49%	65	021% 130% 225% 315% 47% 52% 6+1%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	1.94	77provisional	1.66	49%	35	021% 131% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
DavinchiDEF	Getafe	2.66	50provisional	1.47	41%	10	029% 130% 220% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.57	82provisional	1.44	42%	68	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	1.56	79provisional	1.37	39%	71	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	1.86	61provisional	1.26	36%	22	034% 130% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Enzo BoyomoDEF	Osasuna	1.26	86provisional	1.21	34%	63	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alejandro CatenaDEF	Osasuna	1.22	88provisional	1.19	33%	70	031% 136% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon MoncayolaMID	Osasuna	1.41	76provisional	1.18	33%	62	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Tackles40 playersHighest: Diego Rico, 1.28 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Diego RicoDEF	Getafe	1.53	75provisional	1.28	35%	53	034% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Zaid RomeroDEF	Getafe	1.21	90provisional	1.21	33%	15	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Enzo BoyomoDEF	Osasuna	1.24	86provisional	1.19	33%	63	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.20	82provisional	1.10	30%	68	037% 134% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Valentin RosierDEF	Osasuna	1.13	82provisional	1.04	28%	30	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
DavinchiDEF	Getafe	1.82	50provisional	1.01	26%	10	043% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kiko FemeníaDEF	Getafe	1.22	72provisional	0.98	26%	27	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	1.42	61provisional	0.96	25%	30	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jon MoncayolaMID	Osasuna	1.14	76provisional	0.96	25%	62	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	1.11	76provisional	0.94	24%	65	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Shots40 playersHighest: Ante Budimir, 2.61 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	2.98	79provisional	2.61	70%	71	011% 120% 222% 319% 413% 58% 6+7%
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	1.90	89provisional	1.88	55%	18	017% 128% 226% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	1.74	77provisional	1.49	43%	35	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.42	82provisional	1.30	37%	68	030% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	1.43	76provisional	1.20	34%	62	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	1.46	61provisional	1.00	27%	22	042% 131% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	1.07	82provisional	0.98	26%	15	039% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Borja MayoralFWD	Getafe	1.53	54provisional	0.92	24%	26	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Rubén GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	1.21	66provisional	0.89	23%	62	044% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Raúl MoroFWD	Osasuna	1.78	45provisional	0.88	23%	8	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Fouls won40 playersHighest: Aimar Oroz, 2.28 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	2.71	76provisional	2.28	63%	62	014% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	2.47	77provisional	2.11	60%	35	015% 125% 225% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	1.72	89provisional	1.71	50%	18	020% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.86	82provisional	1.70	49%	68	021% 130% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Diego RicoDEF	Getafe	1.73	75provisional	1.45	41%	53	029% 130% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	1.57	82provisional	1.43	41%	15	025% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	2.10	61provisional	1.43	40%	22	031% 129% 220% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Abdel AbqarDEF	Getafe	1.94	63provisional	1.35	38%	19	031% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Álex SolaFWD	Getafe	2.31	52provisional	1.34	37%	15	032% 130% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	1.34	79provisional	1.18	33%	71	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Cards40 playersHighest: Mario Martín, 0.31 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	0.46	61provisional	0.31	26%	30	074% 122% 24% 3+0%
Dakonam DjenéDEF	Getafe	0.32	79provisional	0.28	25%	63	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Alejandro CatenaDEF	Osasuna	0.29	88provisional	0.28	24%	70	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Abdel AbqarDEF	Getafe	0.40	63provisional	0.28	24%	19	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Domingos DuarteDEF	Getafe	0.24	86provisional	0.23	20%	55	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	0.27	76provisional	0.23	20%	65	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Juan BerrocalDEF	Getafe	0.34	56provisional	0.21	19%	15	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
Enzo BoyomoDEF	Osasuna	0.21	86provisional	0.20	18%	63	082% 117% 22% 3+0%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	0.22	82provisional	0.20	18%	68	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Jon MoncayolaMID	Osasuna	0.23	76provisional	0.20	18%	62	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
DavinchiDEF	Getafe	0.34	50provisional	0.19	17%	10	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Valentin RosierDEF	Osasuna	0.20	82provisional	0.18	16%	30	084% 115% 2+1%
Iker MuñozMID	Osasuna	0.44	37provisional	0.18	16%	21	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	0.21	77provisional	0.18	16%	35	084% 115% 2+1%
Zaid RomeroDEF	Getafe	0.17	90provisional	0.17	16%	15	084% 115% 2+1%
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	0.17	89provisional	0.17	16%	18	084% 114% 2+1%
Jorge HerrandoDEF	Osasuna	0.23	65provisional	0.17	15%	36	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	0.19	76provisional	0.16	15%	62	085% 114% 2+1%
Diego RicoDEF	Getafe	0.19	75provisional	0.16	15%	53	085% 113% 2+1%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	0.23	61provisional	0.16	14%	22	086% 113% 2+1%
Allan NyomDEF	Getafe	0.34	40provisional	0.15	14%	19	086% 112% 21% 3+0%
Kiko FemeníaDEF	Getafe	0.19	72provisional	0.15	14%	27	086% 113% 2+1%
Sergio HerreraGK	Osasuna	0.15	89provisional	0.15	14%	74	086% 113% 2+1%
Álex SolaFWD	Getafe	0.24	52provisional	0.14	13%	15	087% 112% 2+1%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	0.15	82provisional	0.13	12%	15	088% 112% 2+1%
Rubén GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	0.18	66provisional	0.13	12%	62	088% 111% 2+1%
Abel BretonesDEF	Osasuna	0.19	59provisional	0.12	11%	45	089% 110% 2+1%
JuanmiFWD	Getafe	0.27	41provisional	0.12	11%	13	089% 110% 2+1%
Álex SancrisFWD	Getafe	0.28	39provisional	0.12	11%	11	089% 110% 2+1%
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	0.14	79provisional	0.12	11%	71	089% 111% 2+1%
Sebastián BoselliDEF	Getafe	0.31	34provisional	0.12	10%	4	090% 19% 21% 3+0%
Coba da CostaFWD	Getafe	0.23	41provisional	0.11	10%	20	090% 19% 2+1%
Kike BarjaFWD	Osasuna	0.49	18provisional	0.10	9%	8	091% 18% 2+1%
Asier OsambelaMID	Osasuna	0.37	23provisional	0.10	9%	4	091% 18% 2+1%
Moi GómezMID	Osasuna	0.19	39provisional	0.08	8%	22	092% 17% 2+0%
Javi MuñozMID	Getafe	0.19	33provisional	0.07	7%	6	093% 16% 2+0%
Raúl MoroFWD	Osasuna	0.12	45provisional	0.06	6%	8	094% 16% 2+0%
Raúl GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	0.18	26provisional	0.05	5%	19	095% 15% 2+0%
Borja MayoralFWD	Getafe	0.08	54provisional	0.05	5%	26	095% 15% 2+0%
David SoriaGK	Getafe	0.01	90provisional	0.01	1%	76	099% 1+1%

All 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves2 playersHighest: David Soria, 2.93 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
David SoriaGK	Getafe	2.93	90provisional	2.93	54%	76	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
Sergio HerreraGK	Osasuna	2.62	89provisional	2.60	47%	74	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.