La Liga · Spain

OsasunavGetafe

Monday 31 August at 18:30Estadio El Sadarlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls40 playersHighest: Mario Martín, 1.96 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	2.88	61provisional	1.96	56%	30	018% 127% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+2%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	1.97	76provisional	1.68	49%	65	021% 130% 225% 315% 47% 52% 6+1%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	1.95	77provisional	1.67	49%	35	020% 131% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
DavinchiDEF	Getafe	2.67	50provisional	1.48	41%	10	029% 130% 220% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.58	82provisional	1.44	42%	66	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	1.56	79provisional	1.37	39%	71	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	1.87	61provisional	1.28	36%	20	034% 130% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Enzo BoyomoDEF	Osasuna	1.26	86provisional	1.21	34%	63	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	1.21	89provisional	1.20	34%	15	031% 136% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alejandro CatenaDEF	Osasuna	1.22	88provisional	1.19	33%	70	031% 136% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Tackles40 playersHighest: Diego Rico, 2.07 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Diego RicoDEF	Getafe	2.47	76provisional	2.07	56%	52	021% 123% 221% 315% 410% 55% 6+5%
Enzo BoyomoDEF	Osasuna	1.96	86provisional	1.88	53%	63	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Zaid RomeroDEF	Getafe	1.81	90provisional	1.81	52%	15	019% 129% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Jon MoncayolaMID	Osasuna	2.14	76provisional	1.80	51%	62	021% 128% 223% 314% 48% 53% 6+2%
Valentin RosierDEF	Osasuna	1.86	82provisional	1.70	49%	30	022% 130% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	1.99	76provisional	1.69	48%	65	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
DavinchiDEF	Getafe	3.05	50provisional	1.69	45%	10	027% 128% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.79	82provisional	1.63	47%	66	024% 130% 223% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	2.38	61provisional	1.61	45%	30	025% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Abel BretonesDEF	Osasuna	2.42	59provisional	1.58	42%	45	033% 126% 217% 311% 47% 54% 6+3%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Shots40 playersHighest: Ante Budimir, 2.62 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	2.99	79provisional	2.62	70%	71	011% 119% 222% 319% 413% 58% 6+7%
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	1.87	89provisional	1.85	54%	15	017% 129% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	1.73	77provisional	1.48	43%	35	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.42	82provisional	1.29	37%	66	030% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	1.44	76provisional	1.21	34%	62	032% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	1.49	61provisional	1.02	28%	20	041% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	1.07	82provisional	0.98	26%	15	039% 136% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Borja MayoralFWD	Getafe	1.52	54provisional	0.91	23%	26	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Rubén GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	1.22	66provisional	0.89	23%	62	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Raúl MoroFWD	Osasuna	1.79	45provisional	0.89	23%	8	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Fouls won40 playersHighest: Aimar Oroz, 2.25 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	2.68	76provisional	2.25	62%	62	014% 123% 224% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Christantus UcheFWD	Getafe	2.45	77provisional	2.10	60%	35	015% 125% 225% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	1.87	82provisional	1.71	50%	66	021% 130% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Martín SatrianoFWD	Getafe	1.62	89provisional	1.60	47%	15	022% 132% 225% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Diego RicoDEF	Getafe	1.72	76provisional	1.44	41%	52	029% 130% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ramón TerratsMID	Getafe	1.56	82provisional	1.42	41%	15	025% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Abdel AbqarDEF	Getafe	1.93	63provisional	1.34	38%	19	031% 131% 220% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Álex SolaFWD	Getafe	2.30	52provisional	1.33	37%	15	032% 130% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Adrián LisoFWD	Getafe	1.95	61provisional	1.33	37%	20	033% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	1.32	79provisional	1.16	32%	71	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Cards40 playersHighest: Mario Martín, 0.31 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Mario MartínMID	Getafe	0.45	61provisional	0.31	26%	30	074% 122% 24% 3+0%
Dakonam DjenéDEF	Getafe	0.32	79provisional	0.28	24%	63	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Alejandro CatenaDEF	Osasuna	0.29	88provisional	0.28	24%	70	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Abdel AbqarDEF	Getafe	0.40	63provisional	0.28	24%	19	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	0.26	76provisional	0.22	20%	65	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Domingos DuarteDEF	Getafe	0.23	85provisional	0.22	20%	52	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Juan BerrocalDEF	Getafe	0.33	56provisional	0.21	18%	15	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Mauro ArambarriMID	Getafe	0.22	82provisional	0.20	18%	66	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Enzo BoyomoDEF	Osasuna	0.21	86provisional	0.20	18%	63	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Jon MoncayolaMID	Osasuna	0.23	76provisional	0.19	18%	62	082% 116% 22% 3+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Saves2 playersHighest: David Soria, 2.89 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
David SoriaGK	Getafe	2.89	90provisional	2.89	53%	76	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Sergio HerreraGK	Osasuna	2.66	89provisional	2.64	48%	74	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.