Reading it
Full Kelly is optimal only if the model's probabilities are exactly right, and no model's are. Staking a quarter of it costs a little expected growth and removes most of the risk of ruin when the model is wrong — which it will sometimes be.
Definitions describe what Per90’s licensed data feed records, which is not always what a given bookmaker settles on. When the two differ, the bookmaker’s rules decide a bet.
Where it appears on Per90
- Value betting guide — the method this term belongs to, start to finish.
- Methodology — how the model is built and how well each market is priced.