Value performance

Detected EV is the theoretical claim: how far above the sharp market's de-vigged fair price the book was at the moment of publication. Closing line value is the test of that claim: where the sharp market finally settled. A system whose picks consistently beat the close is finding real value; a big detected EV with flat or negative CLV is finding noise. Both are shown so you can hold the second against the first.

Units are the outcome: one unit on every published pick at the price it was called at, graded once against the stored full-time score. Asian quarter lines settle half and half; a handicap is read on the named side's own line; a postponed or abandoned match voids the pick and returns the stake. ROI is units won or lost per unit risked. A record this young swings far more in units than in CLV — a handful of results either way — so read the two together: CLV says whether the prices were right, units say what happened.

Closing-price capture began on 26 August 2026; selections published before their fixture's first captured kick-off show no CLV rather than an estimated one. Nothing on this page can be edited after the fact — the record is append-only, and the engine version that produced each row is stored with it.