Premier League · England

ArsenalvCoventry City

Friday 21 August at 20:00Emirates Stadiumexpected lineup

Referee

Thomas Bramall

46 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.2

-9% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formJack Rudoni over 0.5 shots: 10/10 of his last 10, 11 in a row
Last 20: 18/20 · 4/4 away · strip 2 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 · market 70% · best 1.50 (WilliamHill) · bet365 1.44
formGustavo Hamer over 1.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 3 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 2/4 away · strip 2 3 2 1 3 3 4 2 2 0 · market 48% · best 4.00 (Bet365) · bet365 4.00
formBruno Guimarães over 2.5 fouls won: 6/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 10/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 3 5 5 5 3 2 2 4 1 0 · market 46% · best 3.00 (WilliamHill) · bet365 2.75
formBukayo Saka over 0.5 fouls: 9/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 12/20 · 4/5 at home · strip 2 2 0 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 · market 75% · best 1.44 (PaddyPower) · bet365 1.40
formEphron Mason-Clark over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 16/20 · 2/4 away · strip 1 1 3 3 2 0 1 0 2 2 · market 74% · best 1.44 (PaddyPower) · bet365 1.40
formBrandon Thomas-Asante over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 3 in a row
Last 20: 11/20 · 3/4 away · strip 4 2 1 0 2 3 3 3 1 0 · market 72% · best 1.44 (Bet365) · bet365 1.44
formCristhian Mosquera over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 9/20 · 3/4 at home · strip 1 1 2 1 4 0 3 2 0 2 · market 78% · best 1.50 (PaddyPower) · bet365 1.25
formFrank Onyeka over 1.5 fouls won: 6/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 9/20 · 2/4 away · strip 3 3 3 3 2 3 1 1 0 0 · market 61% · best 2.00 (Bet365) · bet365 2.00

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 19 live calls

Haji Wrightover 2.50 Shots5.50 at bet365 · fair 3.80+44.7%
Martín Zubimendiover 1.50 Tackles2.25 at bet365 · fair 1.57+43.3%
Ephron Mason-Clarkover 1.50 Tackles2.75 at bet365 · fair 1.95+41.0%
Piero Hincapiéover 1.50 Tackles1.80 at bet365 · fair 1.36+32.4%
Declan Riceover 0.50 Fouls won2.50 at bet365 · fair 1.91+30.9%
Declan Riceover 2.50 Tackles3.50 at bet365 · fair 2.70+29.6%
Bukayo Sakaover 1.50 Tackles2.25 at bet365 · fair 1.95+15.5%
Joel Latibeaudiereover 0.50 Shots4.20 at Paddy Power · fair 3.70+13.5%
Haji Wrightover 0.50 Fouls1.30 at Paddy Power · fair 1.18+10.2%
Milan van Ewijkover 0.50 Fouls won2.10 at bet365 · fair 1.91+10.0%
Liam Kitchingover 1.50 Fouls2.75 at bet365 · fair 2.50+10.0%
Liam Kitchingover 0.50 Fouls won1.73 at bet365 · fair 1.57+9.9%
Declan Riceover 0.50 Shots1.25 at Paddy Power · fair 1.15+8.7%
Bukayo Sakaover 1.50 Fouls2.75 at bet365 · fair 2.55+7.8%
Jay Dasilvaover 0.50 Shots4.20 at Paddy Power · fair 3.90+7.7%
Milan van Ewijkover 0.50 Fouls1.40 at Paddy Power · fair 1.30+7.7%
Viktor Gyökeresover 1.50 Fouls won2.25 at Sky Bet · fair 2.10+7.1%
Viktor Gyökeresover 0.50 Fouls1.33 at Paddy Power · fair 1.25+6.6%
Jay Dasilvaover 1.50 Tackles1.44 at bet365 · fair 1.36+6.2%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls53 playersHighest: Bruno Guimarães, 1.30 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bruno GuimarãesMID	—	1.34	85provisional	1.30	37%	67	028% 135% 223% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Frank OnyekaMID	Coventry City	1.49	75provisional	1.29	37%	53	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Gustavo HamerMID	—	1.34	76provisional	1.18	33%	81	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ephron Mason-ClarkMID	Coventry City	1.51	60provisional	1.11	30%	74	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Liam KitchingDEF	Coventry City	1.04	87provisional	1.01	27%	67	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Jurriën TimberDEF	Arsenal	1.06	82provisional	0.99	26%	60	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	1.05	74provisional	0.91	23%	56	041% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Josh EcclesMID	Coventry City	1.18	62provisional	0.89	23%	74	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	1.18	62provisional	0.89	23%	35	044% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Cristhian MosqueraDEF	Arsenal	0.94	79provisional	0.85	21%	57	044% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 53 →

Shots53 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 3.15 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	3.70	74provisional	3.15	78%	56	07% 115% 220% 319% 415% 511% 6+13%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	3.80	60provisional	2.72	68%	67	012% 120% 220% 317% 413% 58% 6+10%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	3.15	72provisional	2.61	69%	69	011% 120% 222% 318% 413% 58% 6+8%
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	3.53	62provisional	2.59	66%	35	014% 121% 220% 317% 412% 58% 6+9%
Fábio VieiraMID	—	2.88	79provisional	2.58	69%	29	011% 120% 223% 319% 413% 58% 6+7%
Gabriel JesusFWD	Arsenal	4.25	39provisional	2.08	51%	31	023% 126% 218% 312% 48% 55% 6+7%
Noni MaduekeFWD	Arsenal	3.17	52provisional	2.00	54%	58	021% 125% 221% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Gabriel MartinelliFWD	Arsenal	2.90	52provisional	1.83	50%	63	023% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Bruno GuimarãesMID	—	1.89	85provisional	1.81	53%	67	018% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	3.03	46provisional	1.74	47%	36	025% 129% 221% 313% 47% 54% 6+3%

10 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 53 →

Shots on target48 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 1.16 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	1.36	74provisional	1.16	66%	56	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kai HavertzFWD	Arsenal	1.34	62provisional	0.98	59%	35	041% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gabriel JesusFWD	Arsenal	1.99	39provisional	0.97	55%	31	045% 130% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Fábio VieiraMID	—	1.00	79provisional	0.89	57%	29	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	1.25	60provisional	0.89	56%	67	044% 133% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	0.99	72provisional	0.82	54%	69	046% 134% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Gabriel MartinelliFWD	Arsenal	1.23	52provisional	0.77	50%	63	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Noni MaduekeFWD	Arsenal	1.22	52provisional	0.77	50%	58	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Viktor GyökeresFWD	Arsenal	1.25	46provisional	0.71	48%	36	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Haji WrightFWD	Coventry City	0.78	62provisional	0.57	41%	69	059% 129% 29% 32% 4+1%

10 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 48 →

Fouls won53 playersHighest: Bruno Guimarães, 2.29 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bruno GuimarãesMID	—	2.39	85provisional	2.29	65%	67	012% 123% 225% 319% 411% 56% 6+4%
Frank OnyekaMID	Coventry City	1.98	75provisional	1.69	49%	53	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Bukayo SakaFWD	Arsenal	1.78	74provisional	1.51	44%	56	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Fábio VieiraMID	—	1.60	79provisional	1.43	41%	29	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Leandro TrossardFWD	Arsenal	1.57	72provisional	1.29	36%	69	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Tatsuhiro SakamotoFWD	Coventry City	1.49	72provisional	1.23	35%	79	032% 133% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEF	Arsenal	2.07	49provisional	1.20	32%	43	038% 130% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ephron Mason-ClarkMID	Coventry City	1.71	60provisional	1.20	33%	74	034% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Eberechi EzeMID	Arsenal	1.69	60provisional	1.19	33%	67	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Josh EcclesMID	Coventry City	1.59	62provisional	1.15	32%	74	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 53 →

Saves5 playersHighest: Carl Rushworth, 3.20 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Carl RushworthGK	Coventry City	3.24	89provisional	3.20	59%	48	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
Oliver DovinGK	Coventry City	3.23	87provisional	3.14	58%	28	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Kepa ArrizabalagaGK	Arsenal	2.68	88provisional	2.65	48%	32	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%
Illan MeslierGK	—	2.41	89provisional	2.38	42%	39	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
David RayaGK	Arsenal	2.15	89provisional	2.14	36%	75	014% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.