Premier League · England

Ipswich TownvSunderland

Saturday 22 August at 15:00Portman Road Stadiumexpected lineup

Referee

Farai Hallam

40 matches on record

Fouls per game

23.1

-0% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formEnzo Le Fée over 1.5 tackles: 9/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 15/20 · 6/6 away · strip 4 2 2 6 2 3 1 2 5 3 · market 73% · best 1.44 (Bet365) · bet365 1.44
formDarnell Furlong over 0.5 shots: 7/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 9/20 · 3/4 at home · strip 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 · market 62% · best 2.20 (Coral) · bet365 1.61
formJaden Philogene over 0.5 shots on target: 7/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 12/20 · 2/4 at home · strip 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 · market 67% · best 1.87 (VirginBet) · bet365 1.53
formCédric Kipré over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10, 3 in a row
Last 20: 12/20 · 3/4 at home · strip 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 · market 71% · best 1.40 (Bet365) · bet365 1.40
formOmar Alderete over 0.5 tackles: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 14/20 · 5/6 away · strip 0 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 · market 67% · best 1.50 (TalkSportBet) · bet365 1.44
opponentIpswich Town concede 14.4 fouls a game — 1st most of 27 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. Good news for Sunderland's foul-drawers.
formDan Ballard over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10, 3 in a row
Last 20: 15/20 · 4/5 away · strip 1 2 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 1 · market 80% · best 1.29 (BetMGM) · bet365 1.29
formOmar Alderete over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 14/20 · 4/6 away · strip 0 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 5 0 · market 75% · best 1.40 (Bet365) · bet365 1.40

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 6 live calls

Noah Sadikiover 1.50 Tackles2.20 at bet365 · fair 1.61+36.6%
Granit Xhakaover 2.50 Tackles4.50 at bet365 · fair 3.40+32.4%
Trai Humeover 1.50 Tackles1.67 at bet365 · fair 1.36+22.6%
Omar Aldereteover 0.50 Shots on target3.40 at bet365 · fair 3.00+13.3%
Dan Ballardover 0.50 Shots on target3.25 at bet365 · fair 2.90+12.1%
Brian Brobbeyover 1.50 Fouls2.00 at bet365 · fair 1.83+9.3%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls54 playersHighest: Saša Lukić, 1.64 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Saša LukićMID	—	1.86	76provisional	1.64	48%	56	021% 131% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
FlorentinoMID	—	1.36	73provisional	1.16	32%	31	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	1.32	69provisional	1.07	29%	31	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Darnell FurlongDEF	Ipswich Town	1.09	88provisional	1.07	29%	85	035% 136% 219% 37% 42% 5+1%
Simon AdingraFWD	Sunderland	1.59	53provisional	1.06	29%	43	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Marcelino NúñezMID	Ipswich Town	1.26	69provisional	1.04	28%	70	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Issahaku FatawuFWD	—	1.11	81provisional	1.02	27%	55	037% 136% 218% 37% 42% 5+1%
Omar AldereteDEF	Sunderland	1.04	86provisional	1.01	27%	67	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	1.03	86provisional	1.00	26%	33	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Reinildo MandavaDEF	Sunderland	1.18	72provisional	0.99	26%	44	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+1%

10 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 54 →

Shots54 playersHighest: Issahaku Fatawu, 2.82 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Issahaku FatawuFWD	—	3.09	81provisional	2.82	73%	55	09% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Jaden PhilogeneFWD	Ipswich Town	3.42	60provisional	2.44	63%	56	015% 121% 221% 317% 412% 57% 6+7%
Julio EncisoMID	Ipswich Town	3.38	58provisional	2.35	62%	25	016% 122% 221% 316% 411% 57% 6+6%
Marcelino NúñezMID	Ipswich Town	2.81	69provisional	2.26	62%	70	014% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+5%
Anis MehmetiMID	Ipswich Town	3.05	61provisional	2.21	60%	90	016% 124% 222% 316% 410% 56% 6+5%
George HirstFWD	Ipswich Town	3.29	43provisional	1.74	46%	68	027% 127% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+4%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	2.06	69provisional	1.64	47%	31	023% 130% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Wilson IsidorFWD	Sunderland	3.06	42provisional	1.58	41%	78	030% 129% 218% 310% 46% 53% 6+3%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Ipswich Town	2.59	50provisional	1.58	43%	62	028% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Sindre Walle EgeliFWD	Ipswich Town	3.06	40provisional	1.53	40%	28	030% 129% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%

10 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 54 →

Shots on target51 playersHighest: Issahaku Fatawu, 1.09 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Issahaku FatawuFWD	—	1.19	81provisional	1.09	64%	55	036% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jaden PhilogeneFWD	Ipswich Town	1.52	60provisional	1.09	62%	56	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Julio EncisoMID	Ipswich Town	1.17	58provisional	0.81	52%	25	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
George HirstFWD	Ipswich Town	1.44	43provisional	0.76	49%	68	051% 130% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	0.95	69provisional	0.76	51%	31	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Anis MehmetiMID	Ipswich Town	0.96	61provisional	0.70	48%	90	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Wilson IsidorFWD	Sunderland	1.28	42provisional	0.66	44%	78	056% 129% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Marcelino NúñezMID	Ipswich Town	0.76	69provisional	0.61	45%	70	055% 131% 210% 32% 4+1%
Ali Al-HamadiFWD	Ipswich Town	1.06	40provisional	0.53	38%	27	062% 127% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Sindre Walle EgeliFWD	Ipswich Town	0.99	40provisional	0.49	36%	28	064% 126% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Bertrand TraoréFWD	Sunderland	0.91	42provisional	0.48	36%	12	064% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Eliezer MayendaFWD	Sunderland	0.98	39provisional	0.48	35%	60	065% 125% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Chemsdine TalbiFWD	Sunderland	0.69	53provisional	0.45	34%	28	066% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Ipswich Town	0.71	50provisional	0.43	33%	62	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Chuba AkpomFWD	Ipswich Town	1.23	26provisional	0.43	33%	29	067% 125% 26% 31% 40% 5+0%
Simon AdingraFWD	Sunderland	0.66	53provisional	0.42	33%	43	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Jack ClarkeFWD	Ipswich Town	0.88	36provisional	0.41	32%	80	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	0.40	79provisional	0.36	30%	60	070% 124% 25% 3+1%
Romaine MundleFWD	Sunderland	0.71	39provisional	0.35	28%	38	072% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Kasey McAteerMID	Ipswich Town	0.79	34provisional	0.35	27%	48	073% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Jack TaylorMID	Ipswich Town	0.49	56provisional	0.33	27%	71	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Habib DiarraMID	Sunderland	0.50	50provisional	0.31	25%	20	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Saša LukićMID	—	0.35	76provisional	0.30	26%	56	074% 122% 24% 3+0%
Alan BrowneMID	Sunderland	0.44	56provisional	0.30	25%	64	075% 120% 24% 3+1%
Chris RiggMID	Sunderland	0.52	45provisional	0.29	24%	63	076% 120% 24% 3+1%
Dan BallardDEF	Sunderland	0.33	75provisional	0.28	24%	52	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Wes BurnsMID	Ipswich Town	0.40	57provisional	0.28	24%	36	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Omar AldereteDEF	Sunderland	0.29	86provisional	0.28	24%	67	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Dara O'SheaDEF	Ipswich Town	0.27	89provisional	0.26	23%	83	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Trai HumeDEF	Sunderland	0.27	85provisional	0.26	23%	85	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	0.26	86provisional	0.25	22%	33	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Chiedozie OgbeneFWD	Ipswich Town	0.45	43provisional	0.24	21%	23	079% 117% 23% 3+0%
Darnell FurlongDEF	Ipswich Town	0.24	88provisional	0.23	21%	85	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Dan NeilMID	Ipswich Town	0.31	64provisional	0.23	20%	66	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jacob GreavesDEF	Ipswich Town	0.22	87provisional	0.21	19%	49	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Nordi MukieleDEF	Sunderland	0.23	81provisional	0.21	19%	47	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	0.21	86provisional	0.21	19%	67	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
FlorentinoMID	—	0.23	73provisional	0.19	17%	31	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Dan NeilMID	Ipswich Town	0.25	64provisional	0.18	16%	66	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Cédric KipréDEF	Ipswich Town	0.23	69provisional	0.18	16%	32	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Leif DavisDEF	Ipswich Town	0.18	85provisional	0.17	16%	70	084% 114% 2+1%
Lutsharel GeertruidaDEF	Sunderland	0.19	71provisional	0.15	14%	52	086% 113% 2+1%
Luke O'NienDEF	Sunderland	0.17	68provisional	0.13	12%	60	088% 111% 2+1%
Ben JohnsonDEF	Ipswich Town	0.20	53provisional	0.13	12%	40	088% 111% 2+1%
Aji AleseDEF	Sunderland	0.18	53provisional	0.11	11%	13	089% 110% 2+1%
Azor MatusiwaMID	Ipswich Town	0.12	85provisional	0.11	11%	45	089% 110% 2+1%
Issa DiopDEF	—	0.13	72provisional	0.11	10%	34	090% 110% 2+1%
Jenson SeeltDEF	Sunderland	0.13	72provisional	0.11	10%	12	090% 19% 2+1%
Ashley YoungDEF	Ipswich Town	0.15	37provisional	0.07	7%	45	093% 16% 2+0%
Reinildo MandavaDEF	Sunderland	0.07	72provisional	0.05	5%	44	095% 15% 2+0%
Leo HjeldeDEF	Sunderland	0.06	33provisional	0.03	3%	25	097% 1+3%

All 51 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won54 playersHighest: Issahaku Fatawu, 1.53 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Issahaku FatawuFWD	—	1.68	81provisional	1.53	44%	55	024% 131% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jaden PhilogeneFWD	Ipswich Town	1.89	60provisional	1.33	38%	56	031% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	1.19	86provisional	1.15	32%	33	033% 136% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	1.43	69provisional	1.13	31%	31	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Julio EncisoMID	Ipswich Town	1.65	58provisional	1.13	31%	25	037% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Darnell FurlongDEF	Ipswich Town	1.15	88provisional	1.12	31%	85	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	1.13	86provisional	1.09	30%	67	035% 136% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Reinildo MandavaDEF	Sunderland	1.27	72provisional	1.05	28%	44	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	1.16	79provisional	1.04	28%	60	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Leif DavisDEF	Ipswich Town	1.06	85provisional	1.01	27%	70	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 54 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Robin Roefs, 3.60 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Robin RoefsGK	Sunderland	3.65	89provisional	3.60	66%	35	04% 112% 218% 319% 417% 512% 6+18%
Christian WaltonGK	Ipswich Town	2.72	88provisional	2.67	48%	44	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
Alex PalmerGK	Ipswich Town	2.50	88provisional	2.45	43%	53	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.