Premier League · England

BrentfordvTottenham Hotspur

Saturday 22 August at 17:30Gtech Community Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago, 1.51 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Igor ThiagoFWD	Brentford	1.81	75provisional	1.51	44%	39	027% 129% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.56	74provisional	1.29	37%	15	030% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.49	75provisional	1.24	35%	27	032% 133% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.29	76provisional	1.10	30%	36	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.12	81provisional	1.02	27%	18	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.30	68provisional	0.99	26%	46	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.65	53provisional	0.98	26%	40	043% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kevin SchadeFWD	Brentford	1.23	69provisional	0.95	25%	61	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+1%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.04	80provisional	0.93	24%	39	040% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.58	52provisional	0.91	24%	28	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Pedro Porro, 1.43 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pedro PorroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.60	81provisional	1.43	40%	61	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.70	73provisional	1.38	39%	39	031% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.46	80provisional	1.30	36%	39	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Michael KayodeDEF	Brentford	1.39	77provisional	1.19	33%	43	036% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Yegor YarmolyukMID	Brentford	1.70	61provisional	1.14	31%	49	040% 129% 217% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.49	68provisional	1.13	31%	46	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Djed SpenceDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.43	70provisional	1.12	30%	44	039% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Mikkel DamsgaardMID	Brentford	1.37	70provisional	1.07	29%	59	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.28	74provisional	1.06	28%	15	038% 133% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.67	53provisional	0.99	26%	40	044% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago, 2.19 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Igor ThiagoFWD	Brentford	2.63	75provisional	2.19	59%	39	019% 122% 221% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Dango OuattaraFWD	Brentford	2.53	71provisional	2.01	55%	26	020% 125% 222% 316% 49% 55% 6+4%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.34	76provisional	1.98	56%	36	019% 125% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Kevin SchadeFWD	Brentford	2.24	69provisional	1.72	49%	61	023% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
RicharlisonFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.92	53provisional	1.70	45%	29	029% 127% 218% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.74	81provisional	1.57	46%	18	022% 132% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.87	75provisional	1.55	45%	27	026% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.08	63provisional	1.45	41%	23	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.45	51provisional	1.40	38%	28	036% 126% 217% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.96	55provisional	1.19	33%	22	038% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: James Maddison, 1.56 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.57	55provisional	1.56	43%	22	030% 128% 219% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Dango OuattaraFWD	Brentford	1.53	71provisional	1.21	34%	26	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.72	63provisional	1.20	33%	23	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kevin SchadeFWD	Brentford	1.56	69provisional	1.20	33%	61	034% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.39	74provisional	1.15	32%	15	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Michael KayodeDEF	Brentford	1.26	77provisional	1.08	30%	43	038% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.33	73provisional	1.07	29%	39	037% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.16	75provisional	0.96	25%	27	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.11	76provisional	0.94	25%	36	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Keane Lewis-PotterMID	Brentford	1.23	69provisional	0.94	25%	58	044% 131% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
RicharlisonFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.46	53provisional	0.85	22%	29	049% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.46	51provisional	0.83	22%	28	050% 128% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	0.88	81provisional	0.79	19%	18	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Pedro PorroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.87	81provisional	0.78	19%	61	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Mikkel DamsgaardMID	Brentford	0.99	70provisional	0.77	19%	59	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.23	53provisional	0.73	18%	40	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Djed SpenceDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.90	70provisional	0.70	17%	44	053% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Igor ThiagoFWD	Brentford	0.83	75provisional	0.70	16%	39	052% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Nathan CollinsDEF	Brentford	0.67	88provisional	0.66	14%	72	053% 133% 211% 33% 4+1%
Rico HenryDEF	Brentford	1.16	48provisional	0.62	14%	15	059% 127% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Kevin DansoDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.80	69provisional	0.61	14%	27	057% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Vitaly JaneltMID	Brentford	0.80	65provisional	0.58	13%	44	058% 129% 210% 32% 4+1%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.65	80provisional	0.58	12%	39	057% 132% 29% 32% 4+0%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.98	52provisional	0.56	12%	28	059% 128% 29% 32% 40% 5+0%
Mikey MooreFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.40	36provisional	0.56	12%	5	060% 128% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Micky van de VenDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.58	85provisional	0.55	11%	47	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Mathias JensenMID	Brentford	0.94	52provisional	0.54	12%	35	062% 126% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Yegor YarmolyukMID	Brentford	0.71	61provisional	0.48	10%	49	064% 126% 28% 32% 4+0%
Lucas BergvallMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.94	44provisional	0.45	9%	29	066% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Fábio CarvalhoMID	Brentford	1.64	22provisional	0.41	9%	4	073% 119% 25% 32% 41% 50% 6+0%
Aaron HickeyDEF	Brentford	1.08	33provisional	0.40	8%	9	071% 120% 26% 32% 4+0%
Ben DaviesDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.47	73provisional	0.38	6%	17	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.50	68provisional	0.38	6%	46	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Wilson OdobertFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	0.71	46provisional	0.36	6%	25	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Ethan PinnockDEF	Brentford	0.32	86provisional	0.30	4%	26	074% 122% 23% 3+0%
Sepp van den BergDEF	Brentford	0.30	85provisional	0.29	4%	60	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Archie GrayMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.41	62provisional	0.28	4%	38	077% 119% 24% 3+1%
Kristoffer AjerDEF	Brentford	0.38	64provisional	0.27	4%	38	077% 119% 23% 3+0%
Caoimhín KelleherGK	Brentford	0.16	90provisional	0.16	1%	37	085% 114% 2+1%
Antonín KinskýGK	Tottenham Hotspur	0.09	90provisional	0.09	0%	13	091% 18% 2+0%
Guglielmo VicarioGK	Tottenham Hotspur	0.08	90provisional	0.08	0%	55	092% 18% 2+0%
Yunus KonakMID	Brentford	1.82	4provisional	0.07	0%	0	093% 17% 2+0%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Cards42 playersHighest: Cristian Romero, 0.25 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.28	80provisional	0.25	22%	39	078% 120% 23% 3+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.31	68provisional	0.23	21%	46	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Caoimhín KelleherGK	Brentford	0.23	90provisional	0.23	21%	37	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.38	52provisional	0.22	19%	28	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Ben DaviesDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.26	73provisional	0.22	19%	17	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Micky van de VenDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.23	85provisional	0.22	19%	47	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Kevin DansoDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.27	69provisional	0.20	18%	27	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.23	74provisional	0.19	17%	15	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Pedro PorroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.20	81provisional	0.18	17%	61	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.30	55provisional	0.18	16%	22	084% 114% 22% 3+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Antonín Kinský, 3.16 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Antonín KinskýGK	Tottenham Hotspur	3.16	90provisional	3.16	59%	13	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Guglielmo VicarioGK	Tottenham Hotspur	3.12	90provisional	3.12	58%	55	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Caoimhín KelleherGK	Brentford	2.64	90provisional	2.64	48%	37	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.