Premier League · England

BrentfordvTottenham Hotspur

Saturday 22 August at 17:30Gtech Community Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 1.49 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Igor Thiago Nascimento RodriguesFWD	Brentford	1.79	75provisional	1.49	43%	39	028% 129% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.54	74provisional	1.27	36%	15	030% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.47	75provisional	1.22	35%	27	032% 133% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.28	76provisional	1.08	30%	36	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.11	81provisional	1.01	27%	18	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Rodrigo Bentancur ColmánMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.28	68provisional	0.97	26%	46	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.64	53provisional	0.97	26%	40	043% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kevin SchadeFWD	Brentford	1.21	69provisional	0.93	24%	61	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 5+0%
Cristian Gabriel RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.03	80provisional	0.92	24%	39	040% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Iyenoma Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.09	73provisional	0.88	22%	39	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Iyenoma Destiny Udogie, 2.26 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Iyenoma Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.80	73provisional	2.26	60%	39	017% 123% 222% 316% 411% 56% 6+6%
Pedro Antonio Porro SaucedaDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.33	81provisional	2.09	57%	61	018% 125% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Mikkel DamsgaardMID	Brentford	2.65	70provisional	2.07	56%	59	020% 124% 221% 315% 410% 55% 6+5%
Cristian Gabriel RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.28	80provisional	2.04	57%	39	016% 126% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Yehor YarmoliukMID	Brentford	2.89	61provisional	1.94	50%	49	026% 124% 218% 313% 49% 55% 6+5%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.84	59provisional	1.85	50%	8	024% 126% 220% 314% 48% 54% 6+4%
Rodrigo Bentancur ColmánMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.44	68provisional	1.85	51%	46	023% 126% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Michael Olabode KayodeDEF	Brentford	2.13	77provisional	1.83	51%	43	024% 125% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Djed SpenceDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.21	70provisional	1.72	47%	44	027% 126% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+3%
Ethan PinnockDEF	Brentford	1.69	86provisional	1.62	46%	26	023% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 2.13 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Igor Thiago Nascimento RodriguesFWD	Brentford	2.55	75provisional	2.13	58%	39	019% 123% 221% 317% 410% 56% 6+4%
Dango Aboubacar Faissal OuattaraFWD	Brentford	2.44	71provisional	1.93	54%	26	021% 126% 222% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.22	76provisional	1.88	53%	36	020% 126% 223% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
Kevin SchadeFWD	Brentford	2.17	69provisional	1.67	47%	61	024% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Richarlison de AndradeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.77	53provisional	1.61	43%	29	030% 127% 218% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.64	81provisional	1.48	43%	18	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.77	75provisional	1.47	42%	27	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.96	63provisional	1.37	38%	23	030% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.33	51provisional	1.32	36%	28	038% 127% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.86	55provisional	1.12	31%	22	039% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: James Maddison, 1.55 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.56	55provisional	1.55	42%	22	030% 128% 219% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Dango Aboubacar Faissal OuattaraFWD	Brentford	1.51	71provisional	1.19	33%	26	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.71	63provisional	1.19	33%	23	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kevin SchadeFWD	Brentford	1.53	69provisional	1.18	33%	61	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.38	74provisional	1.15	32%	15	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Iyenoma Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.32	73provisional	1.07	29%	39	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Michael Olabode KayodeDEF	Brentford	1.23	77provisional	1.06	29%	43	038% 132% 218% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.15	75provisional	0.96	25%	27	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.10	76provisional	0.93	25%	36	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Keane Lewis-PotterMID	Brentford	1.21	69provisional	0.92	25%	58	044% 131% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Cards42 playersHighest: Cristian Gabriel Romero, 0.25 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Cristian Gabriel RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.28	80provisional	0.25	22%	39	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Rodrigo Bentancur ColmánMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.31	68provisional	0.23	20%	46	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Caoimhin KelleherGK	Brentford	0.22	90provisional	0.22	20%	37	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Ben DaviesDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.26	73provisional	0.21	19%	17	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Mickey van de VenDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.23	85provisional	0.21	19%	47	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Kevin DansoDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.26	69provisional	0.20	18%	27	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.23	74provisional	0.19	17%	15	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Pedro Antonio Porro SaucedaDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.20	81provisional	0.18	16%	61	084% 115% 2+2%
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.29	55provisional	0.18	16%	22	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Nathan Michael CollinsDEF	Brentford	0.18	88provisional	0.17	16%	72	084% 114% 2+1%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Antonín Kinský, 3.11 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Antonín KinskýGK	Tottenham Hotspur	3.11	90provisional	3.11	58%	13	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Guglielmo VicarioGK	Tottenham Hotspur	3.08	90provisional	3.08	57%	55	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Caoimhin KelleherGK	Brentford	2.61	90provisional	2.61	47%	37	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.