Premier League · England

Newcastle UnitedvLiverpool

Sunday 23 August at 16:30St. James' Parklineups not announced

Referee

Stuart Attwell

48 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.7

-6% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formDominik Szoboszlai over 0.5 fouls: 10/10 of his last 10, 11 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 5/5 away · strip 1 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 · market 80% · best 1.29 (Bet365) · bet365 1.29
formDominik Szoboszlai over 1.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 11/20 · 4/5 away · strip 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 · market 62% · best 1.67 (Bet365) · bet365 1.67
formFabian Schär over 0.5 shots: 7/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 4/6 at home · strip 1 1 1 3 3 1 2 0 0 0 · market 68% · best 1.65 (Coral) · bet365 1.57
formJoe Willock over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 4 in a row
Last 20: 10/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 2 1 2 2 0 1 0 1 2 3 · market 74% · best 1.44 (Bet365) · bet365 1.44
opponentNewcastle United concede 13.8 fouls a game — 1st most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. Good news for Liverpool's foul-drawers.
formCody Gakpo over 1.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 13/20 · 5/5 away · strip 2 2 0 5 0 5 4 2 3 4 · market 77% · best 1.40 (Bet365) · bet365 1.40
opponentLiverpool concede 5.2 shots on target a game — 2nd most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. Good news for Newcastle United's shooters.
formSven Botman over 0.5 tackles: 7/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 11/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 1 2 1 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 · market 74% · best 1.36 (BetVictor) · bet365 1.30

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 4 live calls

Dominik Szoboszlaiover 2.50 Tackles4.33 at bet365 · fair 2.70+60.5%
Malick Thiawover 2.50 Tackles4.33 at bet365 · fair 3.40+27.4%
Ryan Gravenberchover 1.50 Tackles1.83 at bet365 · fair 1.53+19.8%
Curtis Jonesover 1.50 Tackles1.67 at bet365 · fair 1.53+9.0%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls46 playersHighest: Joelinton, 1.50 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.65	79provisional	1.50	44%	56	023% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Stefan BajceticMID	—	1.61	72provisional	1.37	39%	14	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Alexis Mac AllisterMID	Liverpool	1.43	77provisional	1.26	36%	72	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryan GravenberchMID	Liverpool	1.23	84provisional	1.18	33%	73	031% 136% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dominik SzoboszlaiMID	Liverpool	1.25	81provisional	1.16	32%	72	032% 135% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hugo EkitikéFWD	Liverpool	1.50	64provisional	1.15	32%	61	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Bazoumana TouréFWD	—	1.23	73provisional	1.05	28%	43	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Cody GakpoFWD	Liverpool	1.22	71provisional	1.02	27%	71	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Víctor MuñozFWD	—	1.07	77provisional	0.96	25%	36	039% 136% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Conor BradleyDEF	Liverpool	1.30	59provisional	0.94	25%	34	041% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Shots46 playersHighest: Hugo Ekitiké, 2.05 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Hugo EkitikéFWD	Liverpool	2.75	64provisional	2.05	56%	61	019% 125% 222% 316% 49% 55% 6+4%
Mohamed SalahFWD	Liverpool	2.40	73provisional	2.01	56%	65	018% 126% 223% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
Víctor MuñozFWD	—	2.24	77provisional	1.97	57%	36	017% 127% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Cody GakpoFWD	Liverpool	2.19	71provisional	1.80	52%	71	020% 128% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Alexander IsakFWD	Liverpool	2.20	63provisional	1.62	46%	48	026% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Bazoumana TouréFWD	—	1.89	73provisional	1.58	46%	43	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Dominik SzoboszlaiMID	Liverpool	1.72	81provisional	1.58	46%	72	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Harvey BarnesFWD	Newcastle United	2.40	52provisional	1.52	42%	70	028% 130% 220% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
William OsulaFWD	Newcastle United	2.34	47provisional	1.32	36%	38	037% 127% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Yoane WissaFWD	Newcastle United	2.34	45provisional	1.29	34%	54	037% 129% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.42	79provisional	1.28	36%	56	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nick WoltemadeFWD	Newcastle United	1.62	66provisional	1.25	35%	62	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Rio NgumohaFWD	Liverpool	2.06	49provisional	1.22	33%	19	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Jacob MurphyFWD	Newcastle United	1.76	54provisional	1.16	32%	68	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Florian WirtzMID	Liverpool	1.78	54provisional	1.15	31%	64	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Alexis Mac AllisterMID	Liverpool	1.31	77provisional	1.15	32%	72	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Fabian SchärDEF	Newcastle United	1.15	82provisional	1.06	29%	50	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Harvey ElliottMID	Liverpool	2.54	32provisional	1.06	27%	23	042% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Ryan GravenberchMID	Liverpool	0.81	84provisional	0.77	18%	73	047% 135% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Lewis HallDEF	Newcastle United	0.83	80provisional	0.75	18%	57	049% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Joe WillockMID	Newcastle United	1.47	40provisional	0.75	18%	56	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Curtis JonesMID	Liverpool	1.00	64provisional	0.75	18%	67	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Anthony ElangaFWD	Newcastle United	1.39	40provisional	0.71	17%	70	053% 130% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Jacob RamseyMID	Newcastle United	0.96	62provisional	0.70	16%	57	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Federico ChiesaFWD	Liverpool	2.97	14provisional	0.67	15%	32	054% 132% 210% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Virgil van DijkDEF	Liverpool	0.67	89provisional	0.66	15%	75	052% 133% 211% 33% 4+1%
Malick ThiawDEF	Newcastle United	0.66	84provisional	0.63	13%	57	054% 132% 210% 32% 4+1%
Sven BotmanDEF	Newcastle United	0.71	73provisional	0.60	13%	33	056% 131% 210% 32% 4+0%
Lewis MileyMID	Newcastle United	0.75	63provisional	0.55	12%	37	060% 128% 29% 32% 4+1%
Jeremie FrimpongDEF	Liverpool	0.78	57provisional	0.53	11%	54	061% 128% 29% 32% 4+0%
Jamaal LascellesDEF	Newcastle United	0.67	66provisional	0.51	10%	11	062% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Dan BurnDEF	Newcastle United	0.53	71provisional	0.43	8%	66	066% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ronald AraujoDEF	—	0.71	49provisional	0.42	8%	36	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Stefan BajceticMID	—	0.50	72provisional	0.41	7%	14	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Conor BradleyDEF	Liverpool	0.55	59provisional	0.39	6%	34	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Konstantinos TsimikasDEF	Liverpool	0.74	32provisional	0.31	5%	36	075% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Milos KerkezDEF	Liverpool	0.38	67provisional	0.29	4%	72	075% 121% 24% 3+0%
Joe GomezDEF	Liverpool	0.57	41provisional	0.29	4%	30	076% 119% 24% 3+1%
Tino LivramentoDEF	Newcastle United	0.31	80provisional	0.28	4%	54	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Giovanni LeoniDEF	—	0.27	71provisional	0.22	2%	17	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Wataru EndoMID	Liverpool	0.41	28provisional	0.15	2%	28	087% 112% 21% 3+0%
Emil KrafthDEF	Newcastle United	0.32	37provisional	0.15	1%	13	087% 112% 21% 3+0%
Nick PopeGK	Newcastle United	0.04	89provisional	0.04	—	55	096% 1+4%
AlissonGK	Liverpool	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	54	0100% 1+0%
Giorgi MamardashviliGK	Liverpool	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	44	0100% 1+0%
Freddie WoodmanGK	Liverpool	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	40	0100% 1+0%

All 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots on target43 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah, 0.81 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Mohamed SalahFWD	Liverpool	0.96	73provisional	0.81	53%	65	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Víctor MuñozFWD	—	0.83	77provisional	0.73	51%	36	049% 134% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Hugo EkitikéFWD	Liverpool	0.94	64provisional	0.70	48%	61	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Alexander IsakFWD	Liverpool	0.89	63provisional	0.65	46%	48	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
William OsulaFWD	Newcastle United	1.05	47provisional	0.59	40%	38	060% 127% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Bazoumana TouréFWD	—	0.70	73provisional	0.59	43%	43	057% 131% 210% 32% 4+0%
Cody GakpoFWD	Liverpool	0.70	71provisional	0.58	43%	71	057% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Nick WoltemadeFWD	Newcastle United	0.70	66provisional	0.54	40%	62	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Harvey BarnesFWD	Newcastle United	0.85	52provisional	0.54	39%	70	061% 128% 29% 32% 4+1%
Yoane WissaFWD	Newcastle United	0.97	45provisional	0.53	38%	54	062% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Fouls won46 playersHighest: Víctor Muñoz, 1.29 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Víctor MuñozFWD	—	1.48	77provisional	1.29	37%	36	030% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Lewis HallDEF	Newcastle United	1.33	80provisional	1.20	34%	57	032% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryan GravenberchMID	Liverpool	1.12	84provisional	1.07	29%	73	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.18	79provisional	1.06	28%	56	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Conor BradleyDEF	Liverpool	1.42	59provisional	0.99	26%	34	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Cody GakpoFWD	Liverpool	1.16	71provisional	0.94	25%	71	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
William OsulaFWD	Newcastle United	1.69	47provisional	0.94	25%	38	047% 128% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jeremie FrimpongDEF	Liverpool	1.31	57provisional	0.88	23%	54	046% 132% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Nick WoltemadeFWD	Newcastle United	1.15	66provisional	0.88	23%	62	044% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Stefan BajceticMID	—	1.05	72provisional	0.87	22%	14	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Saves4 playersHighest: Giorgi Mamardashvili, 3.51 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Giorgi MamardashviliGK	Liverpool	3.56	88provisional	3.51	65%	44	04% 112% 218% 320% 417% 512% 6+17%
Freddie WoodmanGK	Liverpool	3.10	88provisional	3.04	56%	40	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
AlissonGK	Liverpool	3.06	89provisional	3.03	56%	54	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Nick PopeGK	Newcastle United	3.03	89provisional	3.00	55%	55	07% 116% 222% 320% 415% 510% 6+10%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.