PER90My betsAccount

Premier League · England

Newcastle UnitedvLiverpool

St. James' Parklineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls38 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 1.23 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Mohamed Salah Ghaly

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.24
    031%
    135%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alexis Mac Allister

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.46
    034%
    132%
    219%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryan Gravenberch

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.22
    034%
    135%
    220%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.31
    035%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dominik Szoboszlai

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.28
    035%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Florian Wirtz

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.29
    039%
    133%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hugo Ekitike

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.43
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Cody Mathès Gakpo

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.27
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Nick Woltemade

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.31
    048%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Alexander Isak

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.42
    052%
    128%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Wataru Endo

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    16
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    4.42
    054%
    130%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Curtis Jones

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.27
    051%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Dan Burn

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.78
    050%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jacob Ramsey

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.24
    054%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Joe Gomez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.71
    057%
    125%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Fabian Lukas Schär

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.79
    051%
    133%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Malick Thiaw

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.69
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.74
    051%
    133%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Virgil van Dijk

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.69
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.69
    051%
    133%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jacob Murphy

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.69
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    1.05
    053%
    131%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Milos Kerkez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.67
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.90
    054%
    130%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles38 playersHighest: Alexis Mac Allister, 2.03 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Alexis Mac Allister

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    2.03
    O 1.5
    58%
    Model /90
    2.50
    017%
    125%
    224%
    317%
    410%
    55%
    6+3%
  • Ryan Gravenberch

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.97
    O 1.5
    58%
    Model /90
    2.10
    015%
    127%
    226%
    318%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Lewis Hall

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.97
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    2.31
    018%
    125%
    224%
    317%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.86
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.14
    018%
    128%
    225%
    316%
    48%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Florian Wirtz

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.82
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.26
    020%
    127%
    224%
    316%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Joseph Willock

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    1.77
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    4.31
    027%
    128%
    218%
    311%
    47%
    54%
    6+4%
  • Lewis Miley

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    1.75
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    3.23
    031%
    125%
    216%
    311%
    48%
    55%
    6+5%
  • Dominik Szoboszlai

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.73
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    1.96
    020%
    129%
    225%
    315%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Curtis Jones

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    1.54
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.55
    030%
    128%
    219%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Jacob Ramsey

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    1.52
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.65
    030%
    129%
    219%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Dan Burn

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.48
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.59
    025%
    132%
    224%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Malick Thiaw

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.51
    025%
    133%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Valentino Livramento

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.59
    028%
    133%
    222%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Joe Gomez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    3.22
    040%
    125%
    214%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Virgil van Dijk

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.28
    028%
    135%
    223%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Milos Kerkez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.73
    033%
    131%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Fabian Lukas Schär

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.41
    030%
    134%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sven Botman

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.64
    034%
    131%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mohamed Salah Ghaly

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.24
    030%
    136%
    222%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Konstantinos Tsimikas

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.16
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    2.25
    041%
    127%
    216%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots38 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 2.00 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Mohamed Salah Ghaly

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    2.02
    017%
    127%
    224%
    316%
    49%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Cody Mathès Gakpo

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.56
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.12
    029%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Hugo Ekitike

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.54
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.14
    029%
    129%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Harvey Lewis Barnes

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.52
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.59
    032%
    128%
    218%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+3%
  • Jacob Murphy

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.51
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.31
    029%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Nick Woltemade

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.28
    032%
    127%
    219%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Alexander Isak

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    2.21
    040%
    127%
    216%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Anthony Elanga

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.50
    043%
    128%
    215%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.12
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.30
    036%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dominik Szoboszlai

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.20
    038%
    133%
    218%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Will Osula

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    3.47
    054%
    125%
    29%
    35%
    43%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Alexis Mac Allister

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.16
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Florian Wirtz

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.17
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryan Gravenberch

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.95
    043%
    134%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Yoane Wissa

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    2.78
    052%
    128%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Rio Ngumoha

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    29
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.42
    056%
    125%
    210%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Jacob Ramsey

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.32
    052%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Curtis Jones

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.24
    053%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Lewis Miley

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.68
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    1.25
    058%
    126%
    210%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Joseph Willock

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 1.5
    15%
    Model /90
    1.60
    057%
    127%
    210%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target36 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 0.84 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Mohamed Salah Ghaly

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 0.5
    55%
    Model /90
    0.84
    045%
    134%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Nick Woltemade

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.61
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    0.95
    058%
    128%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Harvey Lewis Barnes

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.55
    O 0.5
    39%
    Model /90
    0.94
    061%
    127%
    29%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jacob Murphy

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.53
    O 0.5
    39%
    Model /90
    0.81
    061%
    128%
    28%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Hugo Ekitike

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.51
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.71
    062%
    128%
    28%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Cody Mathès Gakpo

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.51
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.69
    062%
    127%
    28%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Alexander Isak

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.47
    O 0.5
    34%
    Model /90
    0.85
    066%
    124%
    27%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Will Osula

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.42
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.50
    072%
    119%
    26%
    32%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Anthony Elanga

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.40
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.88
    070%
    122%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.36
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.42
    070%
    124%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Dominik Szoboszlai

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.35
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.39
    071%
    123%
    25%
    3+1%
  • Yoane Wissa

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.34
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.10
    074%
    119%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Florian Wirtz

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.39
    074%
    122%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Rio Ngumoha

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    29
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.95
    076%
    118%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Ryan Gravenberch

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.31
    075%
    121%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Alexis Mac Allister

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.35
    076%
    120%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Curtis Jones

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.42
    079%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Lewis Miley

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.43
    081%
    116%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Jacob Ramsey

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.39
    081%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Malick Thiaw

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.22
    081%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%

20 of 36 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won38 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 1.13 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Mohamed Salah Ghaly

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.14
    035%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.19
    039%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryan Gravenberch

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.06
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Nick Woltemade

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.39
    047%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Cody Mathès Gakpo

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.18
    047%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Alexis Mac Allister

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.03
    047%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Dominik Szoboszlai

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.92
    047%
    133%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Hugo Ekitike

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.12
    049%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Florian Wirtz

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.97
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Curtis Jones

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.29
    052%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Anthony Elanga

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.67
    054%
    127%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jacob Ramsey

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.32
    052%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Conor Bradley

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.37
    052%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jacob Murphy

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.15
    051%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Harvey Lewis Barnes

    FWD · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.26
    053%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Valentino Livramento

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.69
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.80
    053%
    131%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Lewis Hall

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 1.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.78
    054%
    130%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Alexander Isak

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    1.19
    057%
    127%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Malick Thiaw

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.57
    O 1.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.61
    058%
    130%
    29%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Sven Botman

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.55
    O 1.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.72
    061%
    128%
    29%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards38 playersHighest: Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Lira, 0.21 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.25
    081%
    117%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Dominik Szoboszlai

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.23
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Alexis Mac Allister

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.25
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Ryan Gravenberch

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.21
    083%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Dan Burn

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.19
    084%
    115%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Florian Wirtz

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.21
    084%
    114%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Joe Gomez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.40
    085%
    113%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Mohamed Salah Ghaly

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.16
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Virgil van Dijk

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.16
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Fabian Lukas Schär

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.18
    085%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Malick Thiaw

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.16
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Milos Kerkez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.20
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Conor Bradley

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.26
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Lewis Hall

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Konstantinos Tsimikas

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.27
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Jacob Ramsey

    MID · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.24
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Giorgi Mamardashvili

    GK · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Wataru Endo

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    16
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.76
    088%
    110%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Curtis Jones

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.22
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Jeremie Frimpong

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.23
    088%
    111%
    2+1%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves38 playersHighest: Giorgi Mamardashvili, 3.24 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Giorgi Mamardashvili

    GK · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    3.24
    O 2.5
    60%
    Model /90
    3.36
    06%
    114%
    220%
    320%
    416%
    511%
    6+13%
  • Alisson Ramsés Becker

    GK · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.98
    O 2.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.99
    07%
    117%
    222%
    320%
    415%
    510%
    6+10%
  • Nick Pope

    GK · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.79
    O 2.5
    51%
    Model /90
    2.79
    08%
    118%
    223%
    320%
    414%
    58%
    6+8%
  • Malick Thiaw

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Sven Botman

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Virgil van Dijk

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Fabian Lukas Schär

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Joe Gomez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.01
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Dan Burn

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Mohamed Salah Ghaly

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ryan Gravenberch

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Dominik Szoboszlai

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Alexis Mac Allister

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Florian Wirtz

    MID · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Milos Kerkez

    DEF · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Cody Mathès Gakpo

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Hugo Ekitike

    FWD · Liverpool

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Lewis Hall

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Valentino Livramento

    DEF · Newcastle United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.