Premier League · England
Newcastle UnitedvLiverpool
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls38 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 1.23 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Mohamed Salah Ghalyprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.24
031%135%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Alexis Mac Allisterprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.46
034%132%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Ryan Gravenberchprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.22
034%135%220%38%43%51%6+0% - Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Liraprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.31
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Dominik Szoboszlaiprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.28
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Florian Wirtzprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.29
039%133%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Hugo Ekitikeprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.43
040%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Cody Mathès Gakpoprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.27
043%132%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Nick Woltemadeprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.31
048%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Alexander Isakprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.42
052%128%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Wataru Endoprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 16
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 4.42
054%130%210%33%41%51%6+1% - Curtis Jonesprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.27
051%130%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Dan Burnprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.78
050%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Jacob Ramseyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.24
054%129%212%34%41%5+0% - Joe Gomezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.71
057%125%211%35%42%51%6+0% - Fabian Lukas Schärprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.79
051%133%212%33%41%5+0% - Malick Thiawprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.74
051%133%212%33%41%5+0% - Virgil van Dijkprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.69
051%133%212%33%41%5+0% - Jacob Murphyprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.05
053%131%212%33%41%5+0% - Milos Kerkezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.67
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.90
054%130%211%33%41%5+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles38 playersHighest: Alexis Mac Allister, 2.03 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Alexis Mac Allisterprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 2.03
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 2.50
017%125%224%317%410%55%6+3% - Ryan Gravenberchprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.97
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 2.10
015%127%226%318%49%54%6+2% - Lewis Hallprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.97
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.31
018%125%224%317%49%54%6+2% - Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Liraprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.86
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.14
018%128%225%316%48%53%6+1% - Florian Wirtzprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.82
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.26
020%127%224%316%48%53%6+2% - Joseph Willockprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 1.77
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 4.31
027%128%218%311%47%54%6+4% - Lewis Mileyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.75
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 3.23
031%125%216%311%48%55%6+5% - Dominik Szoboszlaiprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.73
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.96
020%129%225%315%47%53%6+1% - Curtis Jonesprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.55
030%128%219%312%46%53%6+2% - Jacob Ramseyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.65
030%129%219%312%46%53%6+2% - Dan Burnprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.59
025%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Malick Thiawprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.51
025%133%224%312%44%51%6+0% - Valentino Livramentoprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.59
028%133%222%311%44%51%6+0% - Joe Gomezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 3.22
040%125%214%310%46%53%6+2% - Virgil van Dijkprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.28
028%135%223%310%43%51%6+0% - Milos Kerkezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.73
033%131%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Fabian Lukas Schärprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.41
030%134%222%310%43%51%6+0% - Sven Botmanprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.64
034%131%220%310%44%51%6+0% - Mohamed Salah Ghalyprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.24
030%136%222%39%43%51%6+0% - Konstantinos Tsimikasprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.25
041%127%216%39%44%52%6+1%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots38 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 2.00 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Mohamed Salah Ghalyprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.02
017%127%224%316%49%54%6+3% - Cody Mathès Gakpoprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.12
029%128%220%312%46%53%6+2% - Hugo Ekitikeprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.14
029%129%220%312%46%53%6+2% - Harvey Lewis Barnesprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.59
032%128%218%311%46%53%6+3% - Jacob Murphyprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.31
029%129%220%311%46%53%6+2% - Nick Woltemadeprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.28
032%127%219%311%46%53%6+2% - Alexander Isakprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.21
040%127%216%39%44%52%6+1% - Anthony Elangaprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.50
043%128%215%38%44%52%6+1% - Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Liraprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.30
036%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Dominik Szoboszlaiprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.20
038%133%218%37%43%51%6+0% - Will Osulaprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 3.47
054%125%29%35%43%52%6+2% - Alexis Mac Allisterprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.16
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Florian Wirtzprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.17
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Ryan Gravenberchprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.95
043%134%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Yoane Wissaprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 2.78
052%128%211%35%42%51%6+1% - Rio Ngumohaprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 29
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 2.42
056%125%210%35%42%51%6+1% - Jacob Ramseyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.32
052%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Curtis Jonesprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.24
053%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Lewis Mileyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.25
058%126%210%34%41%50%6+0% - Joseph Willockprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 1.60
057%127%210%34%41%50%6+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target36 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 0.84 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Mohamed Salah Ghalyprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 0.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 0.84
045%134%214%35%41%5+0% - Nick Woltemadeprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.61
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 0.95
058%128%210%33%41%5+0% - Harvey Lewis Barnesprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.55
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.94
061%127%29%33%41%5+0% - Jacob Murphyprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.53
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.81
061%128%28%32%4+1% - Hugo Ekitikeprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.51
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.71
062%128%28%32%4+0% - Cody Mathès Gakpoprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.51
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.69
062%127%28%32%4+0% - Alexander Isakprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.47
- O 0.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 0.85
066%124%27%32%40%5+0% - Will Osulaprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.42
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.50
072%119%26%32%41%50%6+0% - Anthony Elangaprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.40
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.88
070%122%26%31%4+0% - Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Liraprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.42
070%124%25%31%4+0% - Dominik Szoboszlaiprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.39
071%123%25%3+1% - Yoane Wissaprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.10
074%119%25%31%4+0% - Florian Wirtzprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.39
074%122%24%3+1% - Rio Ngumohaprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 29
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.95
076%118%24%31%4+0% - Ryan Gravenberchprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.31
075%121%23%3+0% - Alexis Mac Allisterprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.35
076%120%23%3+0% - Curtis Jonesprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.42
079%118%23%3+0% - Lewis Mileyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.43
081%116%23%3+1% - Jacob Ramseyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.39
081%116%22%3+0% - Malick Thiawprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.22
081%116%22%3+0%
20 of 36 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won38 playersHighest: Mohamed Salah Ghaly, 1.13 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Mohamed Salah Ghalyprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.14
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Liraprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.19
039%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Ryan Gravenberchprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.06
040%134%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Nick Woltemadeprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.39
047%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Cody Mathès Gakpoprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.18
047%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Alexis Mac Allisterprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.03
047%132%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Dominik Szoboszlaiprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.92
047%133%214%35%41%5+0% - Hugo Ekitikeprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.12
049%131%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Florian Wirtzprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.97
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Curtis Jonesprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.29
052%129%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Anthony Elangaprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.67
054%127%211%35%42%51%6+0% - Jacob Ramseyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.32
052%129%212%34%42%50%6+0% - Conor Bradleyprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.37
052%130%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Jacob Murphyprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.15
051%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Harvey Lewis Barnesprovisional
FWD · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.26
053%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Valentino Livramentoprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.80
053%131%212%33%41%5+0% - Lewis Hallprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.78
054%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Alexander Isakprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.19
057%127%211%34%41%50%6+0% - Malick Thiawprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.57
- O 1.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.61
058%130%29%32%4+1% - Sven Botmanprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.55
- O 1.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.72
061%128%29%32%40%5+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards38 playersHighest: Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Lira, 0.21 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Liraprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.25
081%117%22%3+0% - Dominik Szoboszlaiprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.23
082%116%22%3+0% - Alexis Mac Allisterprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.25
082%116%22%3+0% - Ryan Gravenberchprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.21
083%116%22%3+0% - Dan Burnprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.19
084%115%21%3+0% - Florian Wirtzprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.21
084%114%21%3+0% - Joe Gomezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.40
085%113%22%3+0% - Mohamed Salah Ghalyprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%114%2+1% - Virgil van Dijkprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%114%2+1% - Fabian Lukas Schärprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%113%2+1% - Malick Thiawprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Milos Kerkezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.20
086%112%2+1% - Conor Bradleyprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.26
087%112%2+1% - Lewis Hallprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Konstantinos Tsimikasprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.27
088%111%2+1% - Jacob Ramseyprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.24
088%111%2+1% - Giorgi Mamardashviliprovisional
GK · Liverpool
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%112%2+1% - Wataru Endoprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 16
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.76
088%110%21%3+0% - Curtis Jonesprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.22
088%111%2+1% - Jeremie Frimpongprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.23
088%111%2+1%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves38 playersHighest: Giorgi Mamardashvili, 3.24 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Giorgi Mamardashviliprovisional
GK · Liverpool
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 3.24
- O 2.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 3.36
06%114%220%320%416%511%6+13% - Alisson Ramsés Beckerprovisional
GK · Liverpool
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.98
- O 2.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.99
07%117%222%320%415%510%6+10% - Nick Popeprovisional
GK · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.79
- O 2.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.79
08%118%223%320%414%58%6+8% - Malick Thiawprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sven Botmanprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Virgil van Dijkprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Fabian Lukas Schärprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Joe Gomezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
0100%1+0% - Dan Burnprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mohamed Salah Ghalyprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ryan Gravenberchprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dominik Szoboszlaiprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Alexis Mac Allisterprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Florian Wirtzprovisional
MID · Liverpool
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Milos Kerkezprovisional
DEF · Liverpool
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Cody Mathès Gakpoprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Hugo Ekitikeprovisional
FWD · Liverpool
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lewis Hallprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Valentino Livramentoprovisional
DEF · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de Liraprovisional
MID · Newcastle United
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.