Premier League · England

FulhamvChelsea

Monday 24 August at 20:00Craven Cottagelineups not announced

Referee

John Brooks

35 matches on record

Fouls per game

22.6

-3% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formLevi Colwill over 0.5 tackles: 10/10 of his last 10, 10 in a row
Last 20: 18/20 · 5/5 away · strip 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 · market 74% · best 1.50 (Bet365) · bet365 1.50
formJoão Pedro over 1.5 shots: 10/10 of his last 10, 11 in a row
Last 20: 16/20 · 5/5 away · strip 2 3 2 3 2 4 5 4 3 7 · market 74% · best 1.40 (Parimatch) · bet365 1.36
formNicolas Jackson over 0.5 shots on target: 9/10 of his last 10, 8 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 4/5 away · strip 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 0 1 · market 79% · best 1.36 (Bet365) · bet365 1.36
formMorgan Rogers over 1.5 shots: 9/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 18/20 · 5/5 away · strip 1 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 3 4 · market 69% · best 1.60 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.57
formShea Charles over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 5/6 at home · strip 3 1 2 1 2 3 2 0 0 3 · market 75% · best 1.44 (Coral) · bet365 1.33
formEmile Smith Rowe over 0.5 tackles: 8/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 17/20 · 4/6 at home · strip 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 0 0 1 · market 80% · best 1.30 (Bet365) · bet365 1.30
opponentChelsea concede 12.9 fouls a game — 2nd most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. Good news for Fulham's foul-drawers.
opponentChelsea concede 5.2 shots on target a game — 2nd most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. Good news for Fulham's shooters.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 5 live calls

Sander Bergeover 1.50 Tackles1.80 at bet365 · fair 1.53+17.6%
Calvin Basseyover 1.50 Tackles1.67 at bet365 · fair 1.45+15.0%
Pedro Netoover 2.50 Shots4.33 at bet365 · fair 3.80+14.0%
Cole Palmerover 0.50 Tackles1.67 at bet365 · fair 1.50+11.1%
Timothy Castagneover 1.50 Tackles1.44 at bet365 · fair 1.36+6.2%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls50 playersHighest: Moisés Caicedo, 1.32 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Moisés CaicedoMID	Chelsea	1.36	86provisional	1.32	38%	71	027% 135% 223% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kenny TeteDEF	Fulham	1.35	82provisional	1.26	36%	44	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Liam DelapFWD	Chelsea	1.66	53provisional	1.11	30%	65	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryan SessegnonDEF	Fulham	1.41	66provisional	1.10	31%	43	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Morgan RogersMID	—	1.08	86provisional	1.04	28%	74	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 5+0%
Wesley FofanaDEF	Chelsea	1.14	77provisional	1.01	27%	39	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	1.10	80provisional	1.00	27%	66	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Levi ColwillDEF	Chelsea	1.02	88provisional	1.00	26%	38	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Shea CharlesMID	—	1.23	68provisional	0.98	26%	76	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Roméo LaviaMID	Chelsea	1.44	54provisional	0.98	26%	28	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
João PedroFWD	Chelsea	1.09	77provisional	0.97	25%	62	039% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Enzo FernándezMID	Chelsea	0.99	85provisional	0.95	25%	72	039% 136% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Rodrigo MunizFWD	Fulham	1.39	53provisional	0.92	24%	52	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Dário EssugoMID	Chelsea	1.43	48provisional	0.88	23%	30	045% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Calvin BasseyDEF	Fulham	0.88	87provisional	0.86	21%	65	043% 136% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Maxence LacroixDEF	—	0.87	88provisional	0.86	21%	70	043% 136% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Antonee RobinsonDEF	Fulham	0.91	83provisional	0.85	21%	58	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Pep ChavarríaDEF	—	0.90	82provisional	0.83	21%	67	044% 135% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Joachim AndersenDEF	Fulham	0.83	87provisional	0.81	20%	63	045% 136% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Nicolas JacksonFWD	Chelsea	1.14	56provisional	0.79	19%	53	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Danny WelbeckFWD	—	0.88	72provisional	0.74	18%	67	049% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Marco PalestraDEF	—	0.97	64provisional	0.73	17%	46	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Marc GuiuFWD	Chelsea	1.84	24provisional	0.71	16%	13	050% 134% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Timothy CastagneDEF	Fulham	0.84	73provisional	0.71	17%	54	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Benoît BadiashileDEF	Chelsea	0.86	67provisional	0.69	16%	13	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jorrel HatoDEF	Chelsea	0.91	62provisional	0.68	16%	22	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Harrison ReedMID	Fulham	1.84	25provisional	0.67	16%	19	057% 127% 210% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Malo GustoDEF	Chelsea	0.77	70provisional	0.63	14%	66	054% 132% 211% 33% 4+1%
KevinFWD	Fulham	1.06	43provisional	0.61	13%	26	056% 131% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Pedro NetoFWD	Chelsea	0.69	75provisional	0.60	13%	69	055% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
EstêvãoFWD	Chelsea	0.90	50provisional	0.59	12%	22	057% 131% 210% 32% 4+0%
Tom CairneyMID	Fulham	1.17	36provisional	0.58	12%	49	058% 129% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Emile Smith RoweMID	Fulham	0.70	64provisional	0.54	11%	71	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Oscar BobbFWD	Fulham	0.79	54provisional	0.53	11%	26	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Reece JamesDEF	Chelsea	0.89	46provisional	0.53	11%	48	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Cole PalmerMID	Chelsea	0.55	82provisional	0.51	10%	63	060% 130% 28% 31% 4+0%
Adama TraoréFWD	Fulham	1.14	29provisional	0.48	9%	60	064% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Jamie GittensFWD	Chelsea	0.79	47provisional	0.48	9%	48	063% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Gonzalo GarcíaFWD	—	0.94	37provisional	0.47	9%	33	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Jordan HendersonMID	—	0.69	56provisional	0.47	9%	32	064% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	0.50	82provisional	0.46	8%	67	063% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
Jorge CuencaDEF	Fulham	0.95	38provisional	0.46	10%	23	067% 124% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Axel DisasiDEF	Chelsea	0.50	80provisional	0.45	8%	27	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Caleb WileyDEF	—	0.54	69provisional	0.44	8%	15	065% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Josh KingMID	Fulham	0.98	29provisional	0.42	8%	40	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Tosin AdarabioyoDEF	Chelsea	0.59	55provisional	0.40	7%	38	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Josh AcheampongDEF	Chelsea	0.51	43provisional	0.28	4%	21	077% 119% 23% 3+1%
Filip JørgensenGK	Chelsea	0.10	68provisional	0.08	0%	11	092% 17% 2+0%
Robert SánchezGK	Chelsea	0.08	88provisional	0.08	0%	67	092% 17% 2+0%
Bernd LenoGK	Fulham	0.01	89provisional	0.01	—	76	099% 1+1%

All 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots50 playersHighest: Cole Palmer, 2.05 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Cole PalmerMID	Chelsea	2.21	82provisional	2.05	59%	63	015% 126% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+3%
João PedroFWD	Chelsea	2.02	77provisional	1.77	51%	62	020% 129% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Rodrigo MunizFWD	Fulham	2.66	53provisional	1.69	46%	52	026% 128% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Nicolas JacksonFWD	Chelsea	2.46	56provisional	1.63	45%	53	026% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Morgan RogersMID	—	1.68	86provisional	1.62	47%	74	021% 132% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Danny WelbeckFWD	—	1.83	72provisional	1.51	43%	67	026% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	1.62	82provisional	1.50	43%	67	024% 132% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Enzo FernándezMID	Chelsea	1.44	85provisional	1.37	39%	72	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Liam DelapFWD	Chelsea	2.00	53provisional	1.28	35%	65	034% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
EstêvãoFWD	Chelsea	2.04	50provisional	1.26	35%	22	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Shots on target47 playersHighest: Cole Palmer, 0.80 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Cole PalmerMID	Chelsea	0.86	82provisional	0.80	54%	63	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Nicolas JacksonFWD	Chelsea	1.10	56provisional	0.73	49%	53	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
João PedroFWD	Chelsea	0.80	77provisional	0.71	49%	62	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Danny WelbeckFWD	—	0.78	72provisional	0.64	46%	67	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Rodrigo MunizFWD	Fulham	1.01	53provisional	0.64	44%	52	056% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	0.65	82provisional	0.60	45%	67	055% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Morgan RogersMID	—	0.58	86provisional	0.56	42%	74	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Enzo FernándezMID	Chelsea	0.55	85provisional	0.52	40%	72	060% 130% 28% 32% 4+0%
Liam DelapFWD	Chelsea	0.74	53provisional	0.47	36%	65	064% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
EstêvãoFWD	Chelsea	0.70	50provisional	0.44	34%	22	066% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Fouls won50 playersHighest: Marco Palestra, 1.76 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Marco PalestraDEF	—	2.40	64provisional	1.76	49%	46	025% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Moisés CaicedoMID	Chelsea	1.49	86provisional	1.43	41%	71	025% 133% 224% 312% 44% 51% 6+1%
João PedroFWD	Chelsea	1.63	77provisional	1.42	41%	62	026% 133% 223% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Cole PalmerMID	Chelsea	1.43	82provisional	1.33	38%	63	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Enzo FernándezMID	Chelsea	1.27	85provisional	1.21	34%	72	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Morgan RogersMID	—	1.25	86provisional	1.20	34%	74	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Shea CharlesMID	—	1.53	68provisional	1.19	33%	76	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Calvin BasseyDEF	Fulham	1.17	87provisional	1.14	31%	65	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Rodrigo MunizFWD	Fulham	1.74	53provisional	1.09	30%	52	039% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kenny TeteDEF	Fulham	1.13	82provisional	1.04	28%	44	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Robert Sánchez, 3.28 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Robert SánchezGK	Chelsea	3.35	88provisional	3.28	61%	67	05% 114% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+14%
Bernd LenoGK	Fulham	2.70	89provisional	2.69	49%	76	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
Filip JørgensenGK	Chelsea	3.32	68provisional	2.65	46%	11	012% 120% 221% 317% 412% 58% 6+9%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.