Premier League · England

Tottenham HotspurvNewcastle United

Saturday 29 August at 17:30Tottenham Hotspur Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.1

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Joelinton, 1.78 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	2.06	78provisional	1.78	52%	52	019% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.66	74provisional	1.37	40%	15	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.59	75provisional	1.32	38%	27	030% 132% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.38	76provisional	1.17	33%	36	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.20	81provisional	1.08	29%	18	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Dan BurnDEF	Newcastle United	1.14	84provisional	1.06	29%	62	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.38	68provisional	1.05	29%	46	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.76	53provisional	1.04	28%	40	041% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.11	80provisional	0.99	26%	39	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Fabian SchärDEF	Newcastle United	1.07	81provisional	0.96	25%	46	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Destiny Udogie, 2.35 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.91	73provisional	2.35	62%	39	016% 122% 221% 317% 411% 56% 6+6%
Lewis HallDEF	Newcastle United	2.58	77provisional	2.20	59%	49	018% 123% 221% 316% 410% 56% 6+5%
Pedro PorroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.42	81provisional	2.17	59%	61	017% 124% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+5%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.37	80provisional	2.12	59%	39	015% 125% 224% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	2.38	78provisional	2.06	57%	52	017% 125% 223% 316% 49% 55% 6+4%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.54	68provisional	1.92	53%	46	022% 125% 222% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
Djed SpenceDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	2.30	70provisional	1.79	49%	44	026% 125% 220% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Jacob RamseyMID	Newcastle United	3.09	52provisional	1.77	46%	18	027% 127% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+4%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	3.06	51provisional	1.75	46%	22	027% 127% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+4%
Tino LivramentoDEF	Newcastle United	2.00	77provisional	1.72	48%	49	023% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.01	74provisional	1.67	47%	15	024% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.67	81provisional	1.51	43%	18	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.50	53provisional	1.48	40%	40	032% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Malick ThiawDEF	Newcastle United	1.55	85provisional	1.46	42%	34	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.76	75provisional	1.46	41%	27	029% 130% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Dan BurnDEF	Newcastle United	1.49	84provisional	1.39	39%	62	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lewis MileyMID	Newcastle United	2.49	49provisional	1.35	34%	20	039% 126% 215% 39% 45% 53% 6+3%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.82	63provisional	1.27	35%	23	034% 131% 219% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Lucas BergvallMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.56	44provisional	1.24	32%	29	040% 128% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+2%
Sven BotmanDEF	Newcastle United	1.63	68provisional	1.23	34%	28	036% 129% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Fabian SchärDEF	Newcastle United	1.35	81provisional	1.21	33%	46	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ben DaviesDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.42	73provisional	1.16	32%	17	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Micky van de VenDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.23	85provisional	1.15	32%	47	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kevin DansoDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.44	69provisional	1.10	30%	27	041% 129% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Joe WillockMID	Newcastle United	2.66	37provisional	1.09	28%	27	043% 129% 215% 37% 43% 52% 6+1%
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.77	55provisional	1.07	29%	22	042% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.04	76provisional	0.89	23%	36	045% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Jacob MurphyFWD	Newcastle United	1.28	59provisional	0.84	21%	54	047% 132% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Nick WoltemadeFWD	Newcastle United	1.27	58provisional	0.82	21%	25	049% 130% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.40	51provisional	0.80	20%	28	052% 127% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Archie GrayMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.16	62provisional	0.80	21%	38	051% 128% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Emil KrafthDEF	Newcastle United	2.35	29provisional	0.76	18%	4	056% 126% 210% 34% 42% 51% 6+1%
RicharlisonFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.30	53provisional	0.76	19%	29	053% 129% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Wilson OdobertFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.48	46provisional	0.75	19%	25	053% 129% 212% 34% 42% 50% 6+0%
Anthony ElangaFWD	Newcastle United	1.57	41provisional	0.72	17%	15	055% 127% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Harvey BarnesFWD	Newcastle United	1.05	53provisional	0.62	14%	44	058% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mikey MooreFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.27	36provisional	0.51	10%	5	063% 127% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
William OsulaFWD	Newcastle United	1.10	25provisional	0.30	6%	9	078% 116% 24% 31% 40% 5+0%
Yoane WissaFWD	Newcastle United	0.91	27provisional	0.28	4%	4	078% 118% 24% 31% 4+0%
Antonín KinskýGK	Tottenham Hotspur	0.17	90provisional	0.17	1%	13	084% 114% 2+1%
Nick PopeGK	Newcastle United	0.03	90provisional	0.03	—	55	097% 1+3%
Guglielmo VicarioGK	Tottenham Hotspur	0.02	90provisional	0.02	—	55	098% 1+2%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots42 playersHighest: Dominic Solanke, 2.17 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.56	76provisional	2.17	60%	36	017% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+4%
RicharlisonFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	3.20	53provisional	1.86	48%	29	026% 126% 218% 312% 48% 55% 6+5%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.89	81provisional	1.71	50%	18	020% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.05	75provisional	1.70	49%	27	023% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.27	63provisional	1.58	44%	23	026% 129% 221% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.69	51provisional	1.53	41%	28	034% 125% 217% 311% 47% 53% 6+3%
Harvey BarnesFWD	Newcastle United	2.56	53provisional	1.51	41%	44	031% 129% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.15	55provisional	1.30	36%	22	035% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.35	78provisional	1.17	32%	52	033% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jacob MurphyFWD	Newcastle United	1.79	59provisional	1.17	32%	54	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: James Maddison, 1.70 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.81	55provisional	1.70	46%	22	027% 126% 219% 313% 47% 54% 6+3%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.88	63provisional	1.31	37%	23	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.52	74provisional	1.26	35%	15	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.45	73provisional	1.17	33%	39	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.33	78provisional	1.15	32%	52	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis HallDEF	Newcastle United	1.28	77provisional	1.09	30%	49	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.27	75provisional	1.05	29%	27	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.21	76provisional	1.03	28%	36	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
RicharlisonFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.59	53provisional	0.93	24%	29	046% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.60	51provisional	0.91	24%	28	048% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Cards42 playersHighest: Joelinton, 0.32 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	0.37	78provisional	0.32	27%	52	073% 123% 24% 3+1%
Dan BurnDEF	Newcastle United	0.31	84provisional	0.29	25%	62	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.30	80provisional	0.27	24%	39	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.33	68provisional	0.25	22%	46	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Fabian SchärDEF	Newcastle United	0.26	81provisional	0.23	21%	46	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Ben DaviesDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.28	73provisional	0.23	20%	17	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Micky van de VenDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.25	85provisional	0.23	21%	47	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
Kevin DansoDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.29	69provisional	0.22	19%	27	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.36	51provisional	0.21	18%	22	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.25	74provisional	0.20	18%	15	082% 116% 22% 3+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Nick Pope, 3.38 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Nick PopeGK	Newcastle United	3.39	90provisional	3.38	63%	55	05% 113% 219% 320% 416% 511% 6+15%
Antonín KinskýGK	Tottenham Hotspur	2.55	90provisional	2.55	46%	13	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Guglielmo VicarioGK	Tottenham Hotspur	2.53	90provisional	2.53	45%	55	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.