Premier League · England

Tottenham HotspurvNewcastle United

Saturday 29 August at 17:30Tottenham Hotspur Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Joelinton, 1.77 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	2.04	78provisional	1.77	52%	52	019% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.66	74provisional	1.37	40%	15	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.59	75provisional	1.32	38%	27	030% 132% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.38	76provisional	1.17	33%	36	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.20	81provisional	1.08	29%	18	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Dan BurnDEF	Newcastle United	1.13	84provisional	1.06	29%	62	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.39	68provisional	1.05	29%	46	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.76	53provisional	1.04	28%	40	041% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.11	80provisional	0.99	26%	39	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.68	52provisional	0.97	26%	28	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Tackles42 playersHighest: Pedro Porro, 1.44 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pedro PorroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.60	81provisional	1.44	40%	61	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.71	73provisional	1.38	39%	39	031% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lewis HallDEF	Newcastle United	1.53	77provisional	1.30	36%	49	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.46	80provisional	1.30	37%	39	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.34	78provisional	1.16	32%	52	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.49	68provisional	1.13	31%	46	037% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Djed SpenceDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.43	70provisional	1.12	31%	44	039% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.28	74provisional	1.06	29%	15	038% 133% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tino LivramentoDEF	Newcastle United	1.19	77provisional	1.02	27%	49	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.68	53provisional	0.99	26%	40	044% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Shots42 playersHighest: Dominic Solanke, 2.17 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.56	76provisional	2.17	60%	36	017% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+4%
RicharlisonFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	3.20	53provisional	1.87	48%	29	026% 126% 218% 312% 48% 55% 6+5%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.91	81provisional	1.72	50%	18	019% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.05	75provisional	1.70	49%	27	023% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.28	63provisional	1.59	45%	23	026% 129% 221% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	2.69	51provisional	1.53	41%	28	034% 125% 217% 311% 47% 53% 6+3%
Harvey BarnesFWD	Newcastle United	2.58	53provisional	1.52	41%	44	030% 129% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.16	55provisional	1.31	36%	22	035% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jacob MurphyFWD	Newcastle United	1.80	59provisional	1.18	33%	54	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.35	78provisional	1.17	33%	52	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Fouls won42 playersHighest: James Maddison, 1.69 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
James MaddisonMID	Tottenham Hotspur	2.79	55provisional	1.69	46%	22	028% 127% 219% 313% 47% 54% 6+3%
Xavi SimonsMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.86	63provisional	1.30	36%	23	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.50	74provisional	1.24	35%	15	032% 133% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Destiny UdogieDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	1.44	73provisional	1.16	32%	39	035% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	1.33	78provisional	1.15	32%	52	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis HallDEF	Newcastle United	1.29	77provisional	1.10	30%	49	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dejan KulusevskiMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.25	75provisional	1.04	28%	27	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dominic SolankeFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.20	76provisional	1.02	27%	36	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
RicharlisonFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.58	53provisional	0.92	24%	29	046% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mathys TelFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.59	51provisional	0.90	24%	28	048% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tino LivramentoDEF	Newcastle United	1.04	77provisional	0.89	23%	49	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Mohammed KudusFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	0.95	81provisional	0.86	21%	18	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Pedro PorroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.94	81provisional	0.85	21%	61	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Pape Matar SarrMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.33	53provisional	0.79	20%	40	050% 130% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Djed SpenceDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.97	70provisional	0.76	19%	44	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kevin DansoDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.87	69provisional	0.66	16%	27	055% 129% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Harvey BarnesFWD	Newcastle United	1.12	53provisional	0.66	15%	44	055% 129% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Sven BotmanDEF	Newcastle United	0.86	68provisional	0.65	15%	28	055% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Anthony ElangaFWD	Newcastle United	1.42	41provisional	0.65	15%	15	057% 127% 210% 34% 41% 5+0%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.70	80provisional	0.63	13%	39	054% 132% 210% 32% 4+1%
Nick WoltemadeFWD	Newcastle United	0.96	58provisional	0.62	14%	25	057% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.06	52provisional	0.61	14%	28	057% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mikey MooreFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	1.51	36provisional	0.61	13%	5	058% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Micky van de VenDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.63	85provisional	0.59	12%	47	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Jacob RamseyMID	Newcastle United	0.98	52provisional	0.56	12%	18	060% 128% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Joe WillockMID	Newcastle United	1.28	37provisional	0.52	11%	27	063% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
William OsulaFWD	Newcastle United	1.88	25provisional	0.52	12%	9	067% 121% 27% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Lucas BergvallMID	Tottenham Hotspur	1.02	44provisional	0.49	10%	29	064% 125% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Jacob MurphyFWD	Newcastle United	0.71	59provisional	0.46	9%	54	064% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Fabian SchärDEF	Newcastle United	0.48	81provisional	0.43	7%	46	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ben DaviesDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.51	73provisional	0.41	7%	17	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.54	68provisional	0.41	7%	46	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Wilson OdobertFWD	Tottenham Hotspur	0.77	46provisional	0.39	7%	25	070% 123% 26% 31% 4+0%
Dan BurnDEF	Newcastle United	0.41	84provisional	0.39	6%	62	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Malick ThiawDEF	Newcastle United	0.36	85provisional	0.34	5%	34	071% 124% 24% 3+1%
Lewis MileyMID	Newcastle United	0.61	49provisional	0.33	6%	20	074% 120% 25% 31% 4+0%
Yoane WissaFWD	Newcastle United	1.04	27provisional	0.32	5%	4	075% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%
Archie GrayMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.44	62provisional	0.30	5%	38	075% 120% 24% 3+1%
Emil KrafthDEF	Newcastle United	0.81	29provisional	0.26	4%	4	079% 117% 23% 31% 4+0%
Nick PopeGK	Newcastle United	0.12	90provisional	0.12	1%	55	088% 111% 2+1%
Antonín KinskýGK	Tottenham Hotspur	0.10	90provisional	0.10	1%	13	090% 19% 2+1%
Guglielmo VicarioGK	Tottenham Hotspur	0.09	90provisional	0.09	0%	55	091% 18% 2+0%

All 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Cards42 playersHighest: Joelinton, 0.32 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
JoelintonMID	Newcastle United	0.37	78provisional	0.32	27%	52	073% 123% 24% 3+1%
Dan BurnDEF	Newcastle United	0.31	84provisional	0.29	25%	62	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Cristian RomeroDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.30	80provisional	0.27	24%	39	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Rodrigo BentancurMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.33	68provisional	0.25	22%	46	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Fabian SchärDEF	Newcastle United	0.26	81provisional	0.23	20%	46	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Yves BissoumaMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.40	52provisional	0.23	20%	28	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Ben DaviesDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.28	73provisional	0.23	20%	17	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Micky van de VenDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.24	85provisional	0.23	20%	47	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Kevin DansoDEF	Tottenham Hotspur	0.28	69provisional	0.22	19%	27	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Conor GallagherMID	Tottenham Hotspur	0.25	74provisional	0.21	19%	15	081% 117% 22% 3+0%

10 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 42 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Nick Pope, 3.42 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Nick PopeGK	Newcastle United	3.43	90provisional	3.42	63%	55	05% 113% 219% 320% 417% 512% 6+15%
Antonín KinskýGK	Tottenham Hotspur	2.58	90provisional	2.58	46%	13	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Guglielmo VicarioGK	Tottenham Hotspur	2.55	90provisional	2.55	46%	55	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.